My dad wrote today: "Looks like the odds are against us"
Jan 11, 2016, 11:16 AM
I replied that I was confident, but couldn't figure out why. My ADDHD kicked in and I worked out a more complicated reply. My brain can rest now.
TLDR: we're gunna win
----- Disclaimer: I acknowledge that there are always fickle stats to back up everything. However, these are probably the ones that are generic enough to *potentially* indicate overall play. -----
^ Turnover margin not listed as it's basically impossible to predict if/when a turnover will occur based on averages. There's nothing schematic (other than good pass/run defense that might contribute).
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Seems that Alabama *really* knows how to stop the run OR nobody EVER runs against them. I'm thinking they just know how to stop the run.
LSU and Tennessee were the best two rushing teams in the SEC; Alabama was third. I say this because ideally, if we see how peer teams that rush well do against them, then we'll have an idea of how we'll do against them in this category. Both teams are below Clemson (15th and 20th respectively).
Against LSU, they allowed only 58 rushing yards and 128 yds passing. LSU is a notoriously one-dimensional offensive and tries to out-talent folks on that side of the ball. To prove that, notice that LSU only earned 8 first downs in the game that were not penalty related. Only 3 were rushing. They locked down the run and the game was decided. If you can't pass, you won't get them out of run defense. LSU lost decisively. (source: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2015-11-07-alabama.html)
Against Tennessee--just one week before--the story is different. They gave up 132 yds on the ground and 171 in the air. However, Tennessee has a more balanced offense. Notice that in the first down department, the game is neck-and-neck (20/22). So, both teams could move the ball even with low yardage output from Tenn. Bama scored a 15-yard rush touchdown with 2:24 left in the game to take the lead (19-14; final score). So, that one came down to the wire. (source: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2015-10-24-alabama.html)
So, as long as we don't turn the ball over with dumb play and play well on 3rd downs (par for the course for this team), then we'll be fine. Statistically, we should be heavily favored...but, Vegas odds are based more on "what will get the most even number of people to bet" rather than statistical reality.
Re: My dad wrote today: "Looks like the odds are against us"
Jan 11, 2016, 11:22 AM
My guess would be we pass early with some options thrown in until we see the defense breathing heavily and holding their sides then Gallman and Watson shove it down their throats then if they play good enough that it's close in the fourth Watson comes through with a huge pass play to seal their fate
Re: My dad wrote today: "Looks like the odds are against us"
Jan 11, 2016, 11:34 AM
As we all know, a good running game makes for a good passing game. Watson and Gallman must get yards running or this thing could be difficult. Actually, Bama has done pretty well against spread offenses this year. Ole Miss won against them because of five Bama turnovers. Still, that game was close. That said, Bama has not seen a quarterback like Watson all year. Nor have they seen a secondary like Clemson will bring. I believe Watson will get his yards - on the ground and through the air. Clemson 27 - Alabama 24.