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Topic: Line on game Saturday question
Replies: 21   Last Post: Sep 6, 2017 11:49 PM by: Tigermaul
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Replies: 21  

Line on game Saturday question

[1]
Posted: Sep 6, 2017 2:51 PM
 

I don't bet much so I'm not really very good at this sort of thing. But I noticed the Tigers were favored by 6.5 then went to 7 and then dropped to 4.5. What does this mean exactly? Does it mean that faith in Clemson is dropping or that what exactly.

When I saw the line initially I felt good knowing that it seemed like confidence was high on Clemson. But I'm not sure what the movement means really. Can someone help?

I'm new here. Hope all is well. Lifelong Clemson fan and my son just started at Clemson this semester.


Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 2:52 PM
 

It means people are taking Auburn when placing bets


It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 2:54 PM
 

So the line moved lower to entice the late money to go to Clemson.

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Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:12 PM
 

Once vegas sets a line, they can't move the line to entice anything. Once they set it, betters can move the line by betting with or against the line. I think it's like a point for every million dollars bet on it. Not certain on that figure though. I do know that vegas can't change it once they set it.


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.

[2]
Posted: Sep 6, 2017 4:29 PM
 

This is definitely not accurate.

1) Vegas absolutely moves lines on their own based on information. If Jarret Stidham tore his ACL in practice tomorrow, all sportsbooks would move the line in favor of clemson. They move the lines based on information and bets.

2) Vegas does not alter lines to have equal money on both sides. Vegas often has more money bet on one side than the other. For example, on the super bowl, significantly more money was bet on the Patriots than the Falcons. That cost the books a lot of money when the Pats won and covered. As another example a lot more money was bet on Macgregor (sp?) than Mayweather. The books made a lot of money when Mayweather won.


Now, having said that, the line moving means probably some sharp bettors have bet on Auburn and the line has been moved down accordingly. Vegas pays a lot more attention to who big bets are made on (generally by professional sportsbettors) than who small bets are made on (generally less-informed public bettors)


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.

[2]
Posted: Sep 6, 2017 5:16 PM
 

I'm glad you corrected the previous poster, I was about to post a reply, but your first point is a better example than I had showing he's wrong. Your 2nd point isn't really accurate though. When talking about betting with a point spread where both sides are 10:11 odds (or close to it), which are the most common bets by far, then the casinos are moving lines to try to get an equal amount of money on each side. They probably won't actually achieve it, but ideally they want 50% of the money on each side.

Bets without a point spread, where each side has different odds, like boxing, are different because each side is not paying out the same for a win. Actually I think there was more money bet on Mayweather, but way more bets on McGregor. The casinos would have lost a lot if McGregor had won because for each dollar bet on Mcgregor, they are paying out more than 5 times that, where on Mayweather they're only paying out about 1/5.

and just to clarify in case somebody doesn't know, 'Vegas' isn't doing anything, each casino's sportsbook is responsible for their own lines.


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 6:39 PM
 

I know you don't need to be told this, but for those less informed, you are correct on all points!

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Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 8:50 PM
 

I adamantly disagree with your argument that books move the line to have equal money bet on either side of a point spread. They very frequently have more money bet on one side of a game than the other. You clearly have not worked in a sportsbook or you would know this.


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 9:30 PM
 

You must have missed -- "They probably won't actually achieve it"
Wanting it and achieving it are different things. They want equal money on each side. It's just math. Unless they have some insider knowledge or games are fixed or something like that. That doesn't mean they actually get equal money on each side. They usually don't. They can't move the line too much because it increases the chances of 'middling', which they certainly don't want happening.


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 5:20 PM
 

YEah, you'll remember the FSU game in 2014 they were like 23 point favorites before Jameis got on a table and yelled obscenities before the game and was suspended. Easy money for people who jumped on the line early and nothing Vegas could really do about it.

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Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:12 PM
 

Once vegas sets a line, they can't move the line to entice anything. Once they set it, betters can move the line by betting with or against the line. I think it's like a point for every million dollars bet on it. Not certain on that figure though. I do know that vegas can't change it once they set it.


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.

[3]
Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:15 PM
 

Once vegas sets a line, they can't move the line to entice anything. Once they set it, betters can move the line by betting with or against the line. I think it's like a point for every million dollars bet on it. Not certain on that figure though. I do know that vegas can't change it once they set it.

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Aspiring member of the TigerNet Sewer Dwellers


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:30 PM
 

Once vegas sets a line, they can't move the line to entice anything. Once they set it, betters can move the line by betting with or against the line. I think it's like a point for every million dollars bet on it. Not certain on that figure though. I do know that vegas can't change it once they set it

2019 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:59 PM
 

Once vegas sets a line, they can't move the line to entice anything. Once they set it, betters can move the line by betting with or against the line. I think it's like a point for every million dollars bet on it. Not certain on that figure though. I do know that vegas can't change it once they set it


Re: It means more early money was bet on Auburn.


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 9:51 PM
 

Yeah, Vegas felt really bad about exploiting so many AU suckers, so they decided to try and help them out. By making it less stressful for the Clemson wagers. Hoping it would have nearby Clemson fans who also placed bets carefree the entire game, and thus more adapt to be there to pick the down Barners up in this time of hurt and angst.

2019 white level member

Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:07 PM
 

Vegas been reading my threads here?


More like a bunch of Auburn fans buying the hype too


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 8:07 PM
 

strong, so you have plenty of company. When we win by 10, you'll have a lost game plus lots of lost bets to boot. Enjoy.

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Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 3:17 PM
 

Sounds kind of cootish


Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 4:38 PM
 

Saw it creeped back up to 5 not too long ago

2019 white level member

Often the line will narrow in the middle of the week with highly bet games


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 9:01 PM
 

Bc of general public money taking Auburn. Sharps wait on this and will pile on Clemson late, getting a good line. By Saturday it will move back to 6 or 7.


Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 9:59 PM
 

It means a lot of early betters took Auburn and are going to lose their money!


Re: Line on game Saturday question


Posted: Sep 6, 2017 11:49 PM
 

I really appreciate all the replies. It helps and I learned a few things. Thank you.


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