Let's talk stats for ACCCG....

Dec 2, 2015, 1:56 PM

clemson unc stats.jpg(33.7 K)

With all of this 'woe is us stuff', let's take a real look at how we've performed on offense and defense along with how UNC has performed.

I used the cfbstats site to look at the game by game performance of each unit (offense and defense) compared to the season averages of the opponents (all data excludes games vs FCS opponents)

For example: Clemson vs. NC ST

Offense
Rush Yards: 240 (NC St averages 144 per game) +96 yards vs. avg
Pass Yards: 383 (NC St averages 188 per game) +194 yards vs. avg

Defense
Rush Yards Allowed: 135 (NC St averages 201 yards per game) -66 vs. avg
Pass Yards Allowed: 254 (NC St averages 210 yards per game) +43.6 vs avg

Let's look at UNC vs NC St

Offense
Rush Yards: 374 (NC St averages 144 per game) +230 yards vs. avg
Pass Yards: 179 (NC St averages 188 per game) -9.5 yards vs. avg

Defense
Rush Yards Allowed: 308 (NC St averages 201 yards per game) +106 vs. avg
Pass Yards Allowed: 206 (NC St averages 210 yards per game) -4.5

That's only one game, just shown as an example. I've aggregated the above information across all FBS games this year for both teams. That is attached as a picture that shows seasons stats (look above).

We've played better defenses (356 yards allowed vs 373 yards allowed on average for UNC opponents) AND we've averaged more yards per game against those better defenses (500 vs 492).

Our opponents' offenses are pretty similar--on average across the season our opponents have averaged 387 yards per game and UNC's 282 yards per game.

We've allowed over 90 yards LESS per game than our opponents average with only 2 teams getting more yards...Syracuse (+2) and SC (+40...and it's worth pointing out that SC gained 61 yards on that final garbage time drive allowing them to get above their season average). If you look at just the last 5 games (NC St, FSU, SU, WF and SC), we are still allowing 45 fewer yards per game than those teams average.

UNC's D is giving up 34 yards more per game than their opponents average (largely in the run game...they give up over 200 per game, +44 against averages)

Reasons for optimism...UNC just gave up 308 yards rushing to an NC St team on their 3rd or 4th string RB. 127 of those yards were to the QB...a QB that's previous high water rushing total for a game this season was 43 vs an FCS team; 39 vs VT as high against FBS team). They give up 200 yards per game rushing and we average 214 yards rushing.

Our QB is averaging 93 yards rushing in the past 4 games and has 5 games of 90+ rushing yards this season...all against Power 5 opponents--ND, Miami, FSU, SU and SC. That's before we talk about Gallman who is probably the best back UNC has faced outside of practice this season.

Not to mention that Watson is also by far the best passer that UNC has faced this season--Miami is the best passing offense they faced and they threw for 44 yards above their season average against UNC. If we finish with 250+ rushing yards, I will not be surprised...we could get more and I would not be shocked if DW and Wayne Train both go for 100+ again.

Reasons for concern:
Our rushing D has given up more yards than our opponents are averaging in 3 of last 4 (+16 to FSU, +79 to SU and +26 to SC). Will be interesting to see what wrinkles BV has for this game and how he plans to attack UNC. Which aspect is he going to sell out on to stop? Where is going to take risks and make them beat us? On the plus side, I don't think they've seen a DL like they will see Saturday. I think this is probably the 2nd best OL that we have faced (behind ND's). This game is a bit of a 'pick your poison' game--key will be to limit explosive plays (UNC is 21st in play 10 yards+, 5th in 20+ plays and 6th in 30+ plays). That's an area of concern because many of those plays for UNC are rushing plays and we rank 88th and 87th in allowing rushing pays of 20+ and 30+.

That's a lot for one post, so will stop...will start one other thread with a few other interesting, miscellaneous stats that I've found for this game.

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Let's talk stats for ACCCG....

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