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Replies: 11
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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Kiper/McShay mock draft analysis
May 1, 2017, 2:29 PM
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As we have seen many times before, ESPN has a history of getting things wrong...
http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=17556775#17556775
Like I did above with the 'Preseason FPI' analysis, I decided to do a similar comparison between the "draft experts" mock drafts, and where players were actually selected
-On the left, we see the actual picks as they occurred
-The next two columns show where Kiper and McShay predicted the players to fall
-The number in parentheses indicates how many spots "off" each mock pick was compared to the actual draft
Pick/Player/Team............................Kiper Prediction.....................McShay Prediction......
1. Myles Garrett - Browns........... 1. Mitch Trubisky (1).............. 1. Mitch Trubisky (1)
2. Mitch Trubisky - Bears........... 2. Myles Garrett (1) .............. 2. Myles Garrett (1)
3. Solomon Thomas - 49ers........... 3. Solomon Thomas (0).............. 3. Jamal Adams (3)
4. Leonard Fournette - Jags......... 4. Leonard Fournette (0)........... 4. Leonard Fournette (0)
5. Corey Davis - Titans............. 5. Jamal Adams (1)................. 5. Marshon Lattimore (6)
6. Jamal Adams - Jets............... 6. OJ Howard (13).................. 6. OJ Howard (13)
7. Mike Williams - Chargers......... 7. Deshaun Watson (5).............. 7. Solomon Thomas (4)
8. Christian McCaffrey - Panthers... 8. Christian McCaffrey (0)......... 8. Christian McCaffrey (0)
9. John Ross - Bengals.............. 9. Jonathan Allen (8).............. 9. Jonathan Allen (8)
10. Patrick Mahommes - Chiefs........ 10. Hassan Reddick (3)............. 10. Reuben Foster (21)
11. Marshon Lattimore - Saints....... 11. Derek Barnett (3).............. 11. Charles Harris (11)
12. Deshaun Watson - Texans.......... 12. Marshon Lattimore (1).......... 12. Derek Barnett (2)
13. Hassan Reddick - Cardinals....... 13. Mike Williams (6).............. 13. Malik Hooker (2)
14. Derek Barnett - Eagles........... 14. Charles Harris (8)............. 14. Mike Williams (7)
15. Malik Hooker - Colts............. 15. Takkarst McKinley (11)......... 15. Hassan Reddick (2)
16. Marlon Humphrey - Ravens......... 16. Corey Davis (11)............... 16. Forrest Lamp (22)
17. Jonathan Allen - Redskins........ 17. Malik Hooker (2)............... 17. Dalvin Cook (24)
18. Adoree Jackson - Titans.......... 18. John Ross (9).................. 18. Corey Davis (13)
19. OJ Howard - Bucs................. 19. Cam Robinson (15).............. 19. Marlon Humphrey (3)
20. Garrett Bolles - Broncos......... 20. Ryan Ramczyk (12).............. 20. Ryan Ramczyk (12)
21. Jarrad Davis - Lions............. 21. Jarrad Davis (0)............... 21. David Njoku (8)
22. Charles Harris - Dolphins........ 22. Reuben Foster (9).............. 22. Takkarist Mckinley (4)
23. Evan Engram - Giants............. 23. David Njoku (6)................ 23. Garrett Bolles (3)
24. Gareon Conley - Raiders.......... 24. Kevin King (9)................. 24. Kevin King (9)
25. Jabril Peppers - Browns.......... 25. Patrick Mahomes (15)........... 25. Deshaun Watson (13)
26. Takkarist McKinley - Falcons..... 26. Tredavious White (1)........... 26. Cam Robinson (8)
27. Tredavious White - Bills......... 27. Evan Engram (4)................ 27. Jarrod Davis (6)
28. Taco Charlton - Cowboys.......... 28. Marlon Humphrey (12)........... 28. Tredavious White (1)
29. David Njoku - Browns............. 29. Forrest Lamp (9)............... 29. Adoree Jackson (11)
30. TJ Watt - Steelers............... 30. Budda Baker (6)................ 30. Evan Engram (7)
31. Reuben Foster - 49ers............ 31. Jordan Willis (42)............. 31. John Ross (22)
32. Ryan Ramczyk - Saints............ 32. Adoree Jackson (14)............ 32. Patrick Mahommes (22)
Number of correct picks:
Kiper - 4 (12.5%)
McShay - 2 (6.3%)
By tallying the total number of spots the experts were off, then dividing that number by 32, we see the average number of picks "off" each "expert" was per prospect:
Kiper - 7.4
McShay - 8.4
I know that beyond the first 10-15 picks, the draft becomes somewhat of a crapshoot in terms of nailing down exact picks. But with all these ESPN layoffs of late, it makes me wonder why they continue to keep both of these guys around?
Message was edited by: CU2013®
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110%er [7723]
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Ehhhhh. I'd rather see a statistic on % of top 10/20/50 they got right
May 1, 2017, 2:33 PM
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I think that is the better judge of a mock draft. Predicting the actual pick is nearly impossible. But predicting the top 50 players taken is pretty likely.
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110%er [7723]
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To add... either way I hate both of these guys.
May 1, 2017, 2:34 PM
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They always parade after every pick like it was exactly what they thought would happen. And there's no accountability. Their only job is to drum up some drama for viewership. They get paid more to be wrong than to be right.
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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Re: To add... either way I hate both of these guys.
May 1, 2017, 3:29 PM
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Yep, if they were good at what they do they would be employed by an NFL franchise....
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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Agreed, picking the exact pick is a crapshoot
May 1, 2017, 2:41 PM
[ in reply to Ehhhhh. I'd rather see a statistic on % of top 10/20/50 they got right ] |
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Which is why I said that at the end. That's why I figured the "avg number off" would be a better indicator of how close they were
But I'd like to see that as well. This was just quicker (and easier) and it still took me entirely too long to do!
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110%er [7723]
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Well thanks for doing it***
May 1, 2017, 2:43 PM
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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But adding to that....
May 1, 2017, 2:50 PM
[ in reply to Agreed, picking the exact pick is a crapshoot ] |
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Some of these mock picks were downright stupid! As a Falcons fan, I will use them as an example....
Anybody with any sort of intel would know that Atlanta had 2 big needs to address in this draft: a pass rushing end/OLB and offensive guard.
The one thing they don't need? A wide receiver, especially an undersized slot-type guy. But who does McShay mock to ATL? John Ross!
And whaddaya know....the Falcons pick edge rusher McKinley 1st round, a LB in round 3, and OL in round 4
So in summary, I would also like to see a comparison of which POSITION these guys had mocked to see how it actually turned out. I would give partial credit if he had mocked a DE or LB to the Falcons in this particular example, because it is hard to predict who will still be on the board or who a franchise might reach for. But a WR pick for the Falcons was inexcusable for these guys to select
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CU Guru [1270]
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Looks Like ESPN could cut out 2 more Salaries!
May 1, 2017, 2:36 PM
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Thanks for the Chart. I thought they were idiots you just provided the Sheet to prove it!
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All-In [30766]
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As we've said many times.. ESPN is not in the bidness
May 1, 2017, 2:37 PM
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Of getting things right. They arnt even in the bidness of reporting sport related news anymore.
They are in the bidness of making money. Right or wrong all they want is the click of buttons, on your remote or on the web.
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CU Guru [1950]
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Ehh it looks like you did a lot of work, but your method
May 1, 2017, 2:45 PM
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seems to be a pretty terrible way of determining if they did a good job of evaluating talent. You have no basis of comparison, and these things are a total crapshoot to predict for a multitude of reasons.
Overall, Mcshay predicted 86 out of the top-100 players. Kiper got 81. Out of all of the hundreds of mock drafts out there, they were both in the upper echelon in that metric.
Are they the absolute best out there? Probably not. But they're not at all bad either.
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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On the contrary....
May 1, 2017, 3:01 PM
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First off, I don't think my method was very good. I'll give you that. And I wasn't taking a shot at these guys in terms of talent evaluation. Simply a fun and easy look at how their mock drafts stacked up to the real thing. My basis of comparison was pretty straightforward, IMO
But I don't think just "getting 81 or 86 out of the top 100 picks right" means anything at all. If a mock draft has a guy going #8 overall, and he actually ends up getting drafted #99, the mock draft can still say that they predicted the player correctly in the top 100. Same thing for the other way around - a guy is mocked as the #95 pick and goes in the 1st round. That's a "miss" by whoever made that prediction.
I think there is a pretty big disparity in 1st-2nd round guys and everybody else in the draft. Once you get beyond the 1st round, it becomes impossible to predict who is going to go where.
But these 1st round guys are pretty much consensus top 40 picks by everybody who makes a mock draft. Thus, by looking at JUST the 1st round guys, and how many spots off the predictions were, it seems like a fun way to get an idea of how close (or not) the experts were
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CU Medallion [65037]
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A former colleague said it best for Kiper being kept around,
May 2, 2017, 12:57 PM
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"I think he must have some pictures of _______ (company owners) in a compromising position with barnyard poultry."
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Replies: 11
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