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Topic: Interesting stats about **Stars* for NFL team
Replies: 7   Last Post: Feb 6, 2014 11:28 AM by: NortherTiger
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Interesting stats about **Stars* for NFL team


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 10:07 AM
 

Saw this on my FB feed. Found it interesting to see more walk-on than 5 star guys.

img

"We establish no religion in this country, we mandate no belief. Nor will we ever. Church and state are, and must remain, separate." ~Ronald Reagan


Andre Caldwell was a 5* but is like the 5th string WR***


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 10:10 AM
 



"We establish no religion in this country, we mandate no belief. Nor will we ever. Church and state are, and must remain, separate." ~Ronald Reagan


Those numbers are not stats on the success of 5* recruits

[1]
Posted: Feb 6, 2014 10:36 AM
 

Yesterday there were roughly 3000 high school players that signed D-1 LOI's. Only 33 of those were 5 stars. 95% of the the 3000 were 2 and 3 star guys. Thus, just based on the law of averages you would expect that all NFL teams to be made up of mostly 3 star guys.

Another thing is that because a guy is a 0 star doesn't mean he's was a walk on. Could have been a scholly guy at a D III school for instance.

A better measure of 5 star recruit success would be to see the percentage of all the 5 star recruits that actually qualified and played college football that went on to play at least one year in the NFL. I bet it's pretty high at 75-80%.

On a side note. There were only 33 total 5 stars in the 2014 class. 6 of them signed with Alabama.


OB beat me to it, but there are so few 5-star players that

[1]
Posted: Feb 6, 2014 10:40 AM
 

just comparing total numbers makes no sense.

I better comparison would be what % of these guys made it to the NFL vs other star rankings.


as already stated, it's the percentages you have to look at


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 11:07 AM
 

not only that, while the NFL game is slowly morphing into a more "college type" game there are a number of 5star players that I would take in a heartbeat (for the college game) that you obviously wouldn't touch in the NFL.

vince young, tim tebow, terelle pryor, jamarcus russell to name a few.

but it's obvious you're going to win bigger and more often with a class like bama as opposed to a class like wake forest.


What would be more interesting to me is


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 11:12 AM
 

how many lower ranked athletes actually end up as top performers in the NFL. Sure, there are many many more of the lower ranked playing because there are so many more of them playing in college. But how well do they do? Just from gut and memory it seems like there are many (by head count and not percentage) who came out of high school very lowly ranked who are now doing very well. Russell Wilson is a prime example.

When you think about it, it seems a little silly to try and predict exactly how well a 25 year old will play when he is 16 or 17.


Absolutely.


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 11:20 AM
 

The star rankings are simply a measure of how quickly a high school player can make an impact at the D1 level. So a player like Hyatt gets a high ranking because he is ready to play right away at a D1 level. Same was true for Sammy Watkins.

Where as a 3* player like Yeargin gets less stars right now because he's not ready to play right away, but potentially could be a great player exactly like Vic Beasley who was also a 3* player.

"We establish no religion in this country, we mandate no belief. Nor will we ever. Church and state are, and must remain, separate." ~Ronald Reagan


To a degree. But I think there are other factors


Posted: Feb 6, 2014 11:28 AM
 

too. Like some players who play in smaller or inferior high school programs might get lower rankings but still come into a decent D-1 program (which is probably a huge step up in training and coaching even for mid-level FBS schools) and shine. They might even get starting time after a spring or fall program and then become stars in year 2+.

My only point is you can generalize about 5 stars since there are so few. But once you leave the very top or very bottom, a lot more comes into play.


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