I'm not sure it can go lower than zero.

Oculus Spirit [97715]

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Who knows. First you have to blow the debt off the top

Mar 23, 2020, 9:14 AM

and see where the labor-driven traditional economic metrics put the market. THEN subtract the lost GDP/wages, etc. from that. It all depends on how much froth was on the market to begin with. When you reach the coffee/liquid underneath, then subtract lost jobs/wages/GDP, etc.

Could be 10,000, could be 5,000, could be lower. I would think a realistic bottom would be around 8-10K. We have so much liquidity and debt tied up (leveraged) on the assumption of a steady and growing bedrock of wages/labor/GDP output, and that bedrock is attacked directly by this virus. So everything stacked and leveraged on that, much done irresponsibly, will collapse. The carpet has been pulled out from underneath the market. We can handle debt crises and other problems. Fed pumping, lowering interest rates, bailouts, etc. What we can't handle is people not working.

When this is over, and the market regains its feet, wherever that is, it will be based on a whole new system, as the prior one based on debt will have collapsed. It will be a new system where the assumption of labor and productivity are no longer assumptions that can be leveraged as they are not guaranteed. Don't expect a "recovery" to anything near what we had....for generations. Until people forget the mistakes of the past and we do this all over again.

The 2019 market was based on wealth we never had. It was based on assumptions that a pandemic virus will destroy. The market will go on and be fine, but nothing like we've enjoyed for decades now.

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companies took the extra proceeds and pumped them into stock purchases and dividends with far less going to workers and wages. This tactic then inflated stock prices (likely 20% past what the actual economy was delivering), which seems to be the primary economic score card that this admin was chasing. Even early steps in fighting the virus impact seemed to focus more on protecting the Dow's numbers. As late as yesterday even McConnell is suggesting that speed is essential in passing this massive package now in order to calm the markets. When the economy turns back on, the markets will come back - nothing else we do now is going to change that. It will still free fall until we see a light at the end of the tunnel, and a light that looks like it will last.

Employment and an economy at work, not idling, is the only tonic the Dow will respond to long term, and all of our stimulus efforts need to be aimed at that. Survive the shutdown - get back into production as quickly as possible once the coast is clear.

Where does the Dow bottom out at?

I know one expert who disagrees....

that was a creepy movie.

I tried to go back and watch some of those more

futures market liked the Fed's new plan news...

Fed put Slick 50 in the economic engine.***

Who knows. First you have to blow the debt off the top

Sounds like you are saying the powers that be need to let

I never understood how Reagan was able to

We saw exactly what was expected with the 2017 tax bill -

Yeah, I want the economy to work like the thing they use on

My meter is off***

Re: Where does the Dow bottom out at?

So like, tomorrow?***

By wednesday***

I'm a few weeks behind.

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