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Team Captain [453]
TigerPulse: 95%
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Joined: 2/9/99
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A lot of talk about what it takes for a bid
Feb 24, 2020, 12:23 PM
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According to Bracket Projects projection matrix which is an aggregate of about 40 Bracket predictions, these are the meaningful profiles of the first 4 in, last 4 out and the next 4 out. (i.e. the bubble)
Last 4 In
Cincinnati 18-9 Q1:2-5 Q2:6-0 NET 54 Q3/Q4 Losses:4
Utah State 20-7 Q1:2-4 Q2:2-2 NET 38 Q3/Q4 Losses:1
NC State 17-10 Q1:5-4 Q2:4-3 NET 53 Q3/Q4 Losses: 3
Richmond 20-7 Q1:2-4 Q2:2-2 NET 49 Q3/Q4 Losses:1
First 4 out
Providence 16-12 Q1:7-8 Q2:3-0 NET:48 Q3/4 Losses 4
Georgetown 15-12 Q1:4-10 Q2:5-2 NET:59 Q3/Q4 Losses:0
Stanford 18-9 Q1:2-5 Q2:4-3 NET:31 Q3/Q4 Losses:1
Purdue 14-14 Q1:4-11 Q2:3-2 NET:36 Q3/Q4 Losses:1
Next 4 Out
Miss St 17-10 Q1:2-6 Q2:3-2 NET 57 Q3/Q4 Losses:2
Arkansas 17-10 Q1:2-6 Q2:2-4 NET:45 Q3/Q4 Losses:0
Memphis 19-8 Q1:2-4 Q2:5-1 NET:61 Q3/Q4 Losses:3
Alabama 15-12 Q1:2-6 Q2:4-4 NET:40 Q3/Q4 Losses:2
How do we compare to these teams
Clemson 14-12 Q1:2-6 Q2:5-4 NET:73 Q3/Q4 Losses:2
To my surprise, quite favorably. The only glaring difference is the NET ranking. We are still 14 spots lower than any of the teams in the first 4 out and 7 of the 12 bubble teams here have a net rating of 48 or higher. So there still needs to be a lot of movement on the front.
Other than that though we really stack up better than I thought on Q1/Q2. Certainly the FSU game is a must win to have any shot, both to improve the Q1 record and the NET ranking. VT and GT are currently Q2 opponents on the road so these would be helpful wins as well.
After looking at the weak bubble this year I'm actually changing my tune a bit a starting to think that an unlikely sweep of the regular season could get this team on the bubble. I'm not sure the ACC tournament matters much unless we drop out of the bye spot and lose to a lower seed, but given the field this year it's starting to get harder to argue that the team shouldn't be considered a bubble team if they win out. Still a tall order playing 2 middle of the pack teams on the road and a very good FSU team but i wouldn't bury them until they lose.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: A lot of talk about what it takes for a bid
Feb 24, 2020, 12:58 PM
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NET rankings meant absolutely nothing to the committee last season.
It will be interesting to see if anything changes for this season.
Along with Clemson there were multiple other teams who had strong NET rankings and got absolutely no mention of being close to in the tournament from the committee response.
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Team Captain [453]
TigerPulse: 95%
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I'll agree the NET rankings wern't used like the RPI was
Feb 24, 2020, 1:34 PM
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However they do establish the Quadrant system and there was a lot of talk on selection Sunday about Quadrant wins and losses, so in that regard, the NET is impactful.
Our RPI is actually lower (88) than our NET so that wouldn't bode well based on history prior to the NET ranking.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: A lot of talk about what it takes for a bid
Feb 24, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Thanks - that's the best post I have seen on Tigernet about Clemson's chances of making the NCAA tournament.
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Orange Blooded [3047]
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Easy math . . . W's give you a bid, L's don't***
Feb 24, 2020, 3:09 PM
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Orange Blooded [2916]
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Still gotta win out
Feb 24, 2020, 3:26 PM
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If the Tigers can win out, which would include a nice win over FSU, and win a meaningful game in the tourney (maybe have to get to semis), then and only then would Clemson even be in the discussion.
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Orange Blooded [2928]
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Re: A lot of talk about what it takes for a bid
Feb 24, 2020, 3:36 PM
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Basically to have a shot, we would have to win out, and then win at least a game or 2 in the ACC Tourney. I don't see that happening. We have not been nearly consistent enough this year to string together 9 straight ACC wins (we've won 3 in a row currently).
I would love to be proven wrong, but I just don't see it.
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Orange Blooded [2403]
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Re: A lot of talk about what it takes for a bid
Feb 24, 2020, 4:48 PM
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Yeah I'm not counting on it . .but IF we were to beat FlSt and make it to 20 wins, . . .I think we could get in.
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