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YOUR BALANCE
A few more stats...UNC v Clemson
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A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 3:24 PM

Cliche, yes, but 3rd down conversions will be interesting...We must, must, must win this stat Saturday, just because it's a mismatch.

Our Defense is #1 in nation in 3rd down conversion % allowed at 24% on the season (this is a BV specialty as we ranked #1 last year at 27% and #5 in 2013 at 30%).

UNC's offense converts at 48.2% on the season--good for 12th nationally. If you remove the 2 games vs FCS opponents, that percentage drops to 43.2% (that percentage would put them at 36th nationally--they were 70% in those 2 games).

In their closest wins (GT, UVA, Pitt and VT) they converted at 25%, 25%, 38.5% and 28.5%. They were 38.5% against SC as well. In their other games, they converted at more than 55%. Our ability to 1) force 3rd downs (UNC has attempted the fewest 3rd downs of any team in the nation this year) and 2) making them punt when we do get them to 3rd down.

When we are on offense...we rank 15th nationally in 3rd down conversion at 47.5% (46.3% if you exclude Wofford, which would rank 18th). Our worst 3rd down conversion games are App St, Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse (33.3%, 35.7%, 33.3% and 35.7%). Those teams all rank in top 50 of 3D conversion percentage against.

UNC ranks 92nd...allowing conversions 42% of the time on the season--that goes up to 43.6% if you exclude the FCS opponents. Which of our opponents was the worst at this stat on the season? Last weeks opponent...Scar's 3d conversion % allowed was 47% on the season...we converted 9 of 13 last week. The next worst opponent was Miami--they rank 79th on the season and we converted at 57% for that game.

This is as critical as turnovers in this game--if we can hold to the norms and convert at ~10 percentage points higher than our opponents normally allow (which is our average on the year--UNC allows, on average, 5 percentage points higher conversion rate on the season), that would put us in the 50-55% conversion range and keep our offense on the field (and, as important, theirs off it).

On the reverse, our conversion % against is on average 13 points lower than our opponents' season average. UNC converts at 6 points higher...

If we hold them 13 points below their average, that will be 30%; if they convert at 6 points higher that will be 50%...which unit holds to their norm, will go a long way in this game. A few early stops on D on 3rd down coupled with early conversions when we are on O and we could build a nice lead to start.

Plays per Game (Tempo proxy?)

I find some of these numbers very hard to explain...UNC and Clemson both average 5.7 plays per drive. However, UNC is running 12 fewer plays per game on offense than Clemson. They have only punted on 26% of their drives all year (compared to 40% for Clemson). As previously noted, they have attempted the fewest 3rd down conversions as well.

The best way to calculate tempo is plays per minute of possession...
UNC averages 66 plays per game with 25 minutes and 49 seconds TOP per game (126th in nation). That results in 2.57 plays per minute. Clemson is actually pretty close to that at 2.49 plays per minute of possession (31 minutes and 16 seconds TOP per game and running 78 plays per game).

They score fast, but this seems to be another indication that their defense doesn't get them the ball back as successfully or quickly as our D gets the ball back for our Offense.

Another indicator of the above...their offense is only getting 11.5 per game; our offense gets 13.5 per game. They score on 58% of their drives...we only score on 48% of our drives.

Negative Plays

We are #3 in TFL's per game (8.7/game) and they are #7 in TFL's allowed (only 4.25 per game).
We are #8 in sacks per game (3) and they are #8 in sacks allowed (only 1 per game)

UNC only gets 1.92 sacks per game (73rd) and we allow 1.17 sacks per game (15th)
UNC is 104th in TFL (5 per game) and we allow 4.75 per game (19th best)

Indications of things we probably already know--BV is aggressive and tries to put opposing offenses behind the chains and gain advantages. That results in a lot of negative plays, but also allows for big yardage plays if someone misses a tackle or gets washed, etc...think we've seen that.

UNC is far more conservative on Defense. Their offense scores quick, but the defense seems to give up a lot of first downs (22.8 per game, ranking 102nd...we are ranked #1 on first downs allowed with only 13.5/game) and doesn't get many negative plays. They get some turnovers, but end up on the field a LOT...the flip side to your offense having the 3rd lowest TOP in the nation, is that your D has the 3rd highest time on field...

Last, but not least... Fumble Luck

We've caused 19 fumbles this year and only recovered 8. The 19 fumbles caused is 45th, but the recovery % (42.11%) is 88th.

UNC has only caused 15 fumbles this year, but they've recovered 9 (60% recovery rate which ranks 18th). The 15 fumbles caused is 88th. The national average recovery rate is 47% (2014 and 2013 is 50.9% and 50.7%).

We've recovered right at 50% in both of the past 2 years...UNC has recovered at 47% and 52% in past two years. We are both aberrations so far this year...hopefully we both return to the norm in this game...

On the other end, we've lost 57.14% of our fumbles this year. UNC has actually fumbled more times, but lost 5 fewer!!! for a 30% loss rate. UNC is +2 on fumbles this year, but based on the norm, they should really be -4 (assuming 50% recovery and 50% loss).

Likewise, we are -4, but based on a normal 50% rate of recovery and loss should be -1. We've overcome our fumbles, but would UNC still be 11-1? How does one explain fumble luck? You can't...it's just that--luck. No way to predict what will happen here, but hopefully our guys take care of the ball...and if they do drop it, maybe our luck will change on the recovery...

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Re: A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 3:29 PM

The closer we get to the game the more confident I feel.

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The more things like this he post, the more confident I feel***


Dec 2, 2015, 3:46 PM



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Re: A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 3:31 PM

Thanks for the breakdown and hard work put into it. Good stuff.

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Thank you for the stats....took a lot of time! Are you a....


Dec 2, 2015, 3:58 PM

CPA by any chance? Or do you teach statistics and probability?

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Re: Thank you for the stats....took a lot of time! Are you a....


Dec 2, 2015, 5:35 PM

No to both, but have always been a numbers/analytical person; have a career in analytics and pretty comfortable w/ data sets, excel etc.

I've had a hobby in sports analytics for several years now and have dabbled in a lot of my own ratings/predictions models using the numbers, but also from having played the games back in the day...Time always gets in the way, but I've started to get back into using stats and models for a college pick em league against the spread and used some of that data to do this over the past few days...amazing what having a few days off over Thanksgiving and being away from home can do...

So--mostly hobby...

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Re: Thank you for the stats....took a lot of time! Are you a....


Dec 2, 2015, 7:18 PM

Either way great stuff. Thank you!!

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awesome insight! thank you!***


Dec 2, 2015, 4:26 PM



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Like your new stat - FL - Fumble Luck .***


Dec 2, 2015, 4:28 PM



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Re: A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 4:34 PM

See now you are speaking my language!! I was a Math Teacher and taught AP Stats. You have done a marvelous job '99Tiger!!!! Keep it up.

Also, do you think "fumble luck" my not be based completely on luck. At some point the law of large numbers comes into play and then you could begin to analyze the emphasis and awareness the players and coaches have toward fumble recovery utilizing practice time and trying to increase reaction time.

Another point, did anyone think that the refs were waiting longer than usual to blow a play dead against SC??

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Re: A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 6:16 PM

Maybe, maybe not...if you look at 3 full years of fumbles vs. fumbles lost %, 80% of the teams/year combinations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean.

To fall outside of that standard deviation seems like randomness...granted, both of our stats fall within that range; UNC's fumbles recovered falls into that range, but UNC's lost fumbles are outside that range.

This is not very rigorous from a stats standpoint, but I'd at least call that an outlier. Also, there is enough continuity to think of individual teams are better, you'd see consistency...we recovered right at 50% for the past two seasons and lost at a 42 and 48% clip in the prior two years.

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If you are up for some more numbers...


Dec 2, 2015, 4:37 PM

It would be interesting to see the following stats for the last 5 games (good measure of how teams are playing lately).

1. Total points allowed vs. opponents by each team and how it relates to opponents scoring average (under or over).

2. Total points scored vs. opponents by each team and how it relates to how opponents allowed points average.

Let me know if you get it done!

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Re: If you are up for some more numbers...


Dec 2, 2015, 6:05 PM

Hmmmm...so, easy enough to do, but not sure how much it says.

UNC v Duke really skews it--they went +41 against Duke (66 vs. 24 on average).

UNC has scored 20 more over last 5 and given up 3 less (maybe somewhat telling is that against Pitt and VT they only scored 1.4 and 5.8 above their averages...and VT took OT).

We have scored 13 more over last 5 and given up 1 less.

That leans toward UNC to a degree in that they have probably played tougher games over past 5 than us (nc st is common; FSU is best either of us played, but SU, Wake & SC are bad).

To be fair, also..I've watched every minute of every Clemson game...not so w/ UNC (really only parts of VT and parts of NC St)...I can qualify the stats to some degree based on what i saw in the games and can't do the same for UNC.

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Anyone know how many fumbles Gallman has lost?


Dec 2, 2015, 4:44 PM

I can only recall two...

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Whatever choice(s) you make makes you. Choose wisely.


Re: Anyone know how many fumbles Gallman has lost?


Dec 2, 2015, 8:46 PM

I am thinking of two. Cuse and and SCar

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Re: A few more stats...UNC v Clemson


Dec 2, 2015, 5:11 PM

Excellent work, thanks!

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Give this guy a freakin' thumbs up for that hard work. Great


Dec 2, 2015, 5:30 PM

post. Thanks for putting that together.

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Speaking as a a grad, a fan, and a MATH teacher


Dec 2, 2015, 6:29 PM

thanks a bunch! That was awesome!

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