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YOUR BALANCE
This post is gonna hurt a bit.....
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This post is gonna hurt a bit.....


Sep 20, 2012, 2:30 PM

There is no use getting upset because no one is giving us a chance. The reality is that we are 14 point underdogs. In the past 20 years more 14 point dogs have lost by 25 + than have won the game outright. So, statistically speaking, Clemson has a better chance of losing by 25 than winning the game outright. That is why we are the only ones who believe in Clemson. Our backs are up against the wall like never before in Dabo's tenure. Time to see what this team is made of.

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We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006...


Sep 20, 2012, 2:33 PM

And suddenly we're 14 point dogs when we are defending ACC Champs and ranked 10th in the country.

hmmmmm..

Is there shame in losing in Tally... absolutely not. But you have to admit the line makes no sense. And don't give me that "poor defense" crap.

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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


Re: We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006...


Sep 20, 2012, 2:36 PM

You know better than argue with a woman. Turn in your card.

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agreed, but if that was the requirement for losing your card


Sep 20, 2012, 2:37 PM

I would have lost it a long time ago due to arguments with dsp

;)

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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


better than what you lost to gwp...


Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM

;)

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he didn't show you the video, did he?***


Sep 20, 2012, 3:39 PM



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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


nah, no way...


Sep 20, 2012, 3:46 PM

not after the cutigerdave one.

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You mean Pat


Sep 20, 2012, 2:39 PM [ in reply to Re: We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ]



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Make it idjit proof and someone will make a better idjit.


The Road game makes a big difference...


Sep 20, 2012, 2:50 PM [ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ]

Last year, when we had them at home w/out their #1 QB we won by 5. I would say our home field was huge in overcoming some of the mistakes we made and is why we ONLY won by 5...We shoulda/coulda won by 14 last year.

But in 2011...

We scored 24.4 points per game on the road.
Remove the 56 at Maryland and it was 16.5

We gave up 30 points per game on the road.
Remove the Maryland 46 and it was 26 per game...

At home, we scored 36.7 points per game.
We gave up 25.7 points per game at home.

That is around a 16 point swing from home to away!

These stats paired with FSU's explosive start on both sides of the ball averaging 59-1 in just 11 quarters (albeit against cupcakes) is why we go in such a 'dog'.

While I believe we can win Saturday, it is understandable why so many believe we can't.

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It's understandable ... but immaterial


Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM

It only matters that our guys believe it.

And they do.

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We played, MD,GT,VT,NC ST,And South Carolina on the


Sep 22, 2012, 8:20 AM [ in reply to The Road game makes a big difference... ]

road last year. 4 of those were pretty good teams last year.

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York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas


Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM [ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ]

line is all about.

When you say the line doesn't make sense, I respond how so??

Given that a line is NOT a prediction of the outcome but rather a mechanism for ensuring equal bets on both sides... how does the line not make sense?

It also appears that it has moved in FSU's favor most of the week suggesting that despite the line most of the betting public was willing to still put money on FSU to cover... thus far anyway.

Everyone that bets on FSU might lose. In which case, the other half of the people that bet (taking the points) will win.

And who else wins?? Vegas... almost every stinking time.

The line makes perfect sense. What doesn't make sense to you is how many people in the general public were still betting on FSU despite the line. I too am surprised that the line didn't come down as the week has progressed due to people putting money on Clemson.

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"Our wide receiver coach has accomplished just as much as your legend."

- The man of a million handles.


On some games they have NO desire to get equal bets.


Sep 20, 2012, 3:03 PM

When an unranked team is only getting 4 or 5 points from a top 5 team Vegas KNOWS that underdog is going to cover.

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If Vegas was not interested getting equal bets on each side


Sep 20, 2012, 3:15 PM

of a spread, or if they feared they COULDN'T get equal bets on each side of a spread... then they will just take the spread off the board entirely.

If there is a spread bet offered, that inherently suggests they are looking for equal bets on both sides... that is WHY betting lines fluctuate... to even out the betting.

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"Our wide receiver coach has accomplished just as much as your legend."

- The man of a million handles.


exactly...


Sep 20, 2012, 3:17 PM

thanks for correcting me... you're right, I should have said that it doesn't make sense that it hasn't come down...

Orange colored glasses aside... hard to understand

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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


Lord knows I don't where orange colored glasses...


Sep 20, 2012, 3:20 PM

and I too thought the line would back up some.

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"Our wide receiver coach has accomplished just as much as your legend."

- The man of a million handles.


you are right... and sense it's not moving....


Sep 20, 2012, 3:14 PM [ in reply to York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas ]

I'm assuming they are getting equal money on both sides

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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


Correct. I am saying I am surprised more people


Sep 20, 2012, 3:16 PM

haven't put money on the tigers... enough to move the line south a little more.

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"Our wide receiver coach has accomplished just as much as your legend."

- The man of a million handles.


Re: York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas


Sep 22, 2012, 7:17 AM [ in reply to York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas ]

Vegas is in the business to always win. Their lively hood depends on it. Like you've said, Vegas fixes the line to get the betting across the board even or as close to even as they possibly can. They actually make their money from the %age they charge for taking your bet. If they was to leave the line the same from start to finish. And the betting was one sided, they would be out of business the first weekend. That is the very reason the line will always adjust for even betting on both sides. If folks will take notice that when the line makes a big change. The bets have gotten way one sided, and Vegas will manipulate the line back to even betting across the board. Vegas never loses!!!

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so what if the line is FSU minus 12


Sep 22, 2012, 7:45 AM

and everyone bets on FSU giving Clemson 12 points

They move the line to 14 that's enough points so everyone now bets on Clemson taking 14 points.

The bets are perfect now 50% on FSU and 50% on Clemson

Final score fsu 23 CU 10

Everyone wins! Vegas loses 100% of the bets

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I agree 100% that the line looks funny. Thats what scares me


Sep 20, 2012, 3:00 PM [ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ]

#8 Mich. vs. #2 Bama, 14 point line looked high. Last year #5 Clemson -4. vs unranked G.T. See a pattern? When the bet looks too good to be true it is. When I saw this line come out I knew Vegas thought FSU would win big.

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that West Virginia beat down is on the minds of Las Vegas


Sep 20, 2012, 3:10 PM [ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ]

If you look at our historical performance in Tally, it hasn't been great by any stretch.

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Re: This post is gonna hurt a bit.....


Sep 20, 2012, 2:34 PM

au contraire. It's FSU that has everything to prove. We have very little to prove. SO kicking some Noles around is gonna be sweet.

take the points and bet a lot.

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just looking at this from a college football fan perspective


Sep 20, 2012, 2:35 PM

I don't think I've ever seen a team with more pressure on them to "prove" something than what has been put on FSU this week.

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"I've been working since I was 15 continually until now. I worked 40 hours a week at 15, when it wasn't even legal for 15 year olds to work that many hours."


backs against the wall??????


Sep 20, 2012, 2:35 PM

this is an opportunity to show the world!!!

We have nothing to lose. No one is counting on us winning so when we go in there nad whip the crap out of FSU this weekend everyone will know these TIGERS are for real!!!

14 points underdogs based on FSU playing Wren, Pendleton, and Travelers Rest!!

I am not worried about 14 point underdogs. When we are not favored we are at our best!

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Make it idjit proof and someone will make a better idjit.


Re: backs against the wall??????


Sep 20, 2012, 2:45 PM

would love to see us win this by 16 to 18 points. Nothing better than making the odds makers look like dumb a$$es also....

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Did this post hurt?


Sep 20, 2012, 3:14 PM
Post.jpg(102.4 K)



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"When I was young, I was sure of many things; now there are only two things of which I am sure: one is, that I am a miserable sinner; and the other, that Christ is an all-sufficient Saviour. He is well-taught who learns these two lessons." -John Newton


Brilliant as always Pat! However, I'm not really all that


Sep 20, 2012, 3:57 PM

trusting to begin with, so if you wouldn't mind, can you please provide me with a citation that says "In the past 20 years more 14 point dogs have lost by 25+ than have won the game outright..." I would also like to see some backup of your analysis that Clemson has a better chance of losing by 25 than winning the game outright.

Thanks in advance!

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"IDIOT POSTER OF THE MONTH SO FAR...GWP-- You have won IPM Award for your failure to completely comprehend a clear post & then choose to attack someone who points out your ignorance. While you are not yet in the same No Class Catagory as deRoberts, ClemTiger117 & Tigerdug23, you are getting closer to the Sewer Dwellers." - coachmac


OK now you've done it


Sep 20, 2012, 3:59 PM

you confused him/her/it!!

;)

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Make it idjit proof and someone will make a better idjit.


I have a feeling that merely waking up in the morning


Sep 20, 2012, 4:00 PM

confuses him/her/it

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"IDIOT POSTER OF THE MONTH SO FAR...GWP-- You have won IPM Award for your failure to completely comprehend a clear post & then choose to attack someone who points out your ignorance. While you are not yet in the same No Class Catagory as deRoberts, ClemTiger117 & Tigerdug23, you are getting closer to the Sewer Dwellers." - coachmac


I agree with GWP........Citation, please, or GTFO!***


Sep 22, 2012, 8:48 AM [ in reply to Brilliant as always Pat! However, I'm not really all that ]



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