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V shaped recovery?
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V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 8:38 AM

My personal bet is we will struggle to come out of this decline for a long while. Wall St. is in the midst of a bear market rally that will end when they face reality of reoccuring waves of breakouts of the kung flu. Industries not being able to fully finction and profits simply evaporating.

Many sectors are simply not going to recover, many zombie companies will never reopen. Some will go the BK route and linger for a bit but finally be shot in the head when investors tire of tossing cash on the buring pire.

History says we will start saving again and it will take years to forget the feeling of running out of money. 70% of the US economy is predicated on people peeing their money away, so what happens when the consumer says no thanks I may need that money for a rainy day?

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 8:45 AM

define long while

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 8:51 AM

5 years. I am assuming no vaccine and we will make do until coming up with better treatments. Meaning frequent outbreaks and localized shutdowns. States budgets now have holes blown in them and face drastic cuts to services,pensions and employment tossed in to boot.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 8:53 AM

I'll be happy to be totally wrong because the financial ruin of a great many does not bring me glee.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:14 AM [ in reply to Re: V shaped recovery? ]

wallstreet folks are saying ten.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 12:51 PM [ in reply to Re: V shaped recovery? ]

i say a year, we can adapt

doubt planet fitness will come back, not sure they could put in machines that close to each other anymore, continuous cleaning

there will be new business opportunities/jobs

probably need to stop the money printing, most of it will just get stolen

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:43 PM

Hope you are right for those unemployed and struggling, my bet is snowballs chance in Lucifer’s crib.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:03 AM

quite a world be live in. one day we will wake up and realize we have been getting robbed for the last 4 decades. This was billed a middle class bailout, but in the end it was yet another transfer of wealth fromthe tax payers, a lot of the money going directly into investors pockets and not employees paychecks and pensions with all the loop holes baked into into. And sadly, pension has turned into a naughty word in some circles. Somewhere along the line people figured out that if you take a worker's long term security away from them, they will work harder. Heck, Milton Friedman said this openly in front of congress.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:08 AM

All I can say if we have been being robbed we have been willing participants of said robbery. Some to a greater degree than others but you gets what you vote for in the end.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:11 AM

unfortunately we have no choice. All presidential candidates get vetted by big business and wallstreet to keep the same game going, or they do not get enough money to win the primaries.

Heck,the DNC has flat out stonewalled sanders the last 2 elections because he was a threat to a failing system.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:15 AM [ in reply to Re: V shaped recovery? ]

both the Pubs and Dems are the same at their core. One is just better at seeming to be for the average guy by tossing out some edibles with the scraps. Plus they message it better, Pubs just say to hell with messaging. We are stuck with a system of perpetual grief for workers/citizens as the 2 party system is baked in to elect someone with goals that at their core do not align with needs. Pelosi and the House passing that grand stimulus the other day is nothing more than comedic tragedy in that they know it will never pass in even a form of what they proposed.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:17 AM

you know who wrote that stimulus bill right? hint, it was not the senate. They may frame it, but that is it.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:20 AM

Which one, the one passed or the one just recently put out by the House?

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:22 AM

I can not say specifically on the one in the house, i have not been paying attention. But you saw what happened to all the worker retention and small business bailout in the first bill that passed the senate, a lot of it got gobbled by by large corporations to pay back investors. Now why do you think it had enough loopholes to allow that to happen?

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:24 AM [ in reply to Re: V shaped recovery? ]

If you are talking the one that wasted trillions that was passed by both Houses of Congress it was the K Street boys and Government Sachs. Doing what they did with TARP , saving their own skin.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 9:25 AM

edzachary. and we ate it hook line and sinker again.

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Re: V shaped recovery?


May 17, 2020, 10:12 AM

Why not, it has been proven time and again we always hit an unbaited hook. Never let a good crisis go wasted, sometime it seems big business does read from some types associated with socialism and use it to their advantage while spouting a line of capitalism.

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so, L shape.***


May 17, 2020, 11:40 AM



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Maybe more like a check mark?***


May 17, 2020, 12:52 PM



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Re: Maybe more like a check mark?***


May 17, 2020, 8:07 PM

My bet is an escalator symbol down followed by a people mover symbol followed by a short escalator symbol up

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Re: Maybe more like a check mark?***


May 17, 2020, 8:31 PM

Nice analogy. I would say elevator down, with a few stops at the mezzanine, lobby, and garage as part of the journey. Exit stage right as you say, then stairs up from there.

Let's fill the technical school rolls this summer and fall and convert some service economy folks to tradesfolk. Schools are going to need some serious cash to survive this year. The college model will see its greatest challenge ever ahead.

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I suspect you are right


May 17, 2020, 12:41 PM



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My sincere hope (unlikely to happen) is that this will be an


May 18, 2020, 3:23 PM

opportunity to reset things that badly need fixing. Higher education, healthcare, and a social safety net are among the highest priorities.

Everyone thought Andrew Yang was wacky with his "$1,000 a month" proposal until we did it. A basic safety net would help everyone feel secure enough to do what they need to do to position themselves better going forward in today's economy. That may be job retraining, starting a business, going to school, etc.

Fix the higher ed system that only reinforces the gap between the haves and have nots in our society.

Decouple healthcare and employment. My wife has to work so we can have healthcare. But she does so because only through my business can I make the income we need to have something like a decent living.
Basic healthcare should be accessible to all.

After we get those things squared away, then we can look at other stuff. Until the COVID thing APM was an environmental skeptic. But seeing the clear water in the canals in Venice makes me believe that it would be a good idea to give Mother Nature a break and ease off the pollution and use clean energy sources.

This may sound ultra liberal, but I think most of these things can be best accomplished through a robust, business-friendly market economy.

Mark Cuban is the man whom I have heard speak most eloquently on these topics.

Cuban 2020.

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I think this pandemic has showed just how


May 18, 2020, 3:28 PM

perilous our footing is as the richest country in the world. We are a first world country to the very few in our country and a 3rd world country to the remaining 90% of our population.

I'm not sure who actually said it, but it's very true

"The US is a third world country with a Gucci belt"

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I like your funny words magic man


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