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Hall of Famer [22381]
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Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left
Sep 22, 2020, 2:29 PM
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Things have been pretty stable for quite awhile now. Not a lot of undecideds that aren't leans one way or the other. Biden, currently up 50.5% to 43.6%, looks to have a 77% chance of winning with an 8 to 11 point lead in national polling, up slightly since September 1st when Biden had a 67% chance.
If you scroll down to "Who's ahead in the national polls?" you can click on "see our national polling averages" to see all of the polls and how they are moving.
If you want swing state analysis, right below that, under the heading "See states with the closest races" you can click on a state and see the odds and the polling for each.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ 2020 Election Forecast Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
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All-In [47795]
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left
Sep 22, 2020, 3:18 PM
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Hall of Famer [22381]
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Anything can happen, but much rather be up by 11 like Biden.
Sep 22, 2020, 3:41 PM
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Looks like Biden has ticked up a bit in the last few days.
Hard to see how Trump pulls off an electoral college win with such a large national polling lead for Biden. It's hard to see where Trump can build support going forward given he lags Biden in all of the polling questions except the economy.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Anything can happen, but much rather be up by 11 like Biden.
Sep 22, 2020, 3:47 PM
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Hall of Famer [22381]
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It's the 1st poll listed in the link provided.
Sep 22, 2020, 4:08 PM
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I'm not seeing any polling showing Trump in the lead, nor I am seeing any significant movement towards Trump. It's pretty static.
The polling shows Biden with a much better position relative to Trump on all of the questions except the economy, unlike Clinton in 2016. She was extremely unpopular. Biden is not Clinton. I can see why you hope it's the same as 2016, but its a different dynamic this time around.
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All-TigerNet [12563]
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Re: Anything can happen, but much rather be up by 11 like Biden.
Sep 22, 2020, 4:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: Anything can happen, but much rather be up by 11 like Biden. ] |
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If Biden is correct about 200 million dead Americans from COVID then I think polling is totally useless at this point. Couple that with his comment that 150 million have died since 2007 from gun violence and it would appear that most of us are actually the walking dead and will have no interest in voting, but on finding someone to eat.
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Hall of Famer [20518]
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Re: Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left
Sep 22, 2020, 4:27 PM
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My guess would be two things can affect it now:
1) The debates. Biden can't get confused and forget where he is. If he has a Senior Moment and takes a whiz onstage, he's done. But that's a pretty low bar.
2) An "October Surprise." You know Trump's going to drop whatever dirt he (and Putin) have collected on Biden in the last few years in mid-October because he did it to Hillary and that's how he rolls.
The weak link, clearly, is Hunter Biden. If there's, say, some salacious video of Hunter out there - and there could be - here's exactly where it would surface. Part of me wonders if the whole reason Hunter was over in Ukraine to begin with is because Russia wanted kompromat on him and dangled free money in front of him via Burisma to get it. That how the KGB and Putin have always rolled.
Would that work, at this point? Dunno. Depends on what comes out, and the media's gotten jaded in regards to Trump. But something will almost certainly at least attempt to pop and whatever bullets Trump has in his gun, he'll use them here.
Of course, that goes both ways. The Dems and some very powerful movers-and-shakers like Jeff Bezos and Michael Bloomberg have had four years to dig up some kompromat of their own; it could be Trump isn't the only one who dumps an October Surprise on his opponent this election.
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Legend [18003]
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I'd say the passing of RBG is the "october surprise"
Sep 22, 2020, 4:49 PM
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I think what happens with her seat, COVID, and Trump are the motivating factors for voters and I can't possibly see anyone caring about what Hunter Biden did or didn't do when it comes to Joe Biden (outside Trumpers, obviously).
Saying all that, I think the only other minefield for Biden is the debates. If he comes out of them like he did against Bernie then there is no 'cognitive impairment' narrative and the GOP's only strategy left is to hope people don't vote or somehow people's votes aren't counted.
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Heisman Winner [111389]
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Re: I'd say the passing of RBG is the "october surprise"
Sep 22, 2020, 5:10 PM
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agree, the idea of the GOP rushing another ultra conservative onto the bench when we are entering a decade of transformative, generational change is going to fire a lot of liberal voters up. I can only imagine what the backlash will be if they do actually overturn the ACA in december and trump wins a second term.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: I'd say the passing of RBG is the "october surprise"
Sep 22, 2020, 6:01 PM
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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It's not her seat.
Sep 22, 2020, 6:58 PM
[ in reply to I'd say the passing of RBG is the "october surprise" ] |
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It wasn't when she sat in it, it belongs to the American people. Even now if you don't buy that you must admit, she's dead as a doornail and one thing is certain about the dead, they leave everything behind.
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Hall of Famer [22381]
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Trump probably has a greater likelihood of a Trump moment
Sep 22, 2020, 4:52 PM
[ in reply to Re: Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left ] |
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that Biden does of having a senior moment. Biden is actually a pretty good debater and he's been in quite a few over the last year. Trump, on the other hand, is known to shun preparation and practice and is prone to saying outrageous and stupid things.
The Hunter Biden story has run it's course. There is nothing there. Rudy's "source" is a knows Russian agent. William Barr is perceived as a partisan hack. Given that, it seems more likely to backfire than to help.
I would think there are a number of insiders in the Trump administration waiting to come forward over the next 6 weeks and tell more stories of Trump's crazy.
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Heisman Winner [111389]
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Re: Trump probably has a greater likelihood of a Trump moment
Sep 22, 2020, 5:12 PM
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you can't win a debate with a liar, Biden will actually have to be pretty quick on his feet and fact checking on the spot.
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Lot o points [155633]
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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CU Medallion [56727]
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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I just give dems that one.
Sep 22, 2020, 6:56 PM
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Anyone with two or more brain cells can point out how badly Russia is suffering from America's energy independence resulting in low oil prices across the globe.
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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Re: Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left
Sep 22, 2020, 6:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: Fivethirtyeight shows a pretty stable race with 43 days left ] |
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I don't think the debates matter as much as they should. It's not as if democrats are suddenly come to realize their candidate is neck deep in senility.
Far as Hillary getting dumped on. You might want to check with Comey about that. Trump wasn't in power when Hillary kept a private server which got hacked by everybody who wasn't named Donald Trump. It's dishonest of you to suggest that Trump had anything to do with that or Andy Weiner sending dikpiks to an underage girl which caused the FBI to confiscate the laptop which contained some of Hillary's classified emails she'd sent to Andy's wife. None of that had anything to do with Trump or his brownie buddy, Vlat.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/year-after-impeachment-hunter-bidens-ukraine-activities
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All-TigerNet [10853]
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So if Trump wins the election...
Sep 22, 2020, 4:41 PM
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does that make the Deomocrat party the UGA of politics?
Always the early favorite, leads late...but blows it at the end?
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