»
Topic: About that UNC close call...
Replies: 9   Last Post: Dec 3, 2019 11:09 AM by: tiger_thom®
[ Tiger Boards - Football ]
Start New Topic
Replies: 9  

About that UNC close call...

[5]
Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:32 AM
    Reply

The narrative in the media about that game is that UNC was “going for the win” with the 2pt conversion and Clemson would have lost had they converted. Ummm... there was 1:28 left on the clock and Clemson had 2 timeouts. Even had UNC made it or even tied with the extra point it would have been likely Trevor would’ve marched down the field to win the game imo.


I think so too, but I’m glad it was over when it was.***

[2]
Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:34 AM
    Reply



military_donation.jpg

Re: I think so too, but I’m glad it was over when it was.***


Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:39 AM
    Reply

Remember a few years ago in the championship game when a questionable penalty on the kickoff denied the Heels a chance to TIE the game? Not win but tie. I still hear grumbles about that cheating call!


that doesn't fit the narrative***

[1]
Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:36 AM
    Reply



2020 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

The narrative is similar to when we played UNC in the

[3]
Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:38 AM
    Reply

ACCCG. The sports media got out their jump to conclusions mat and decided that had the refs not called the offsides UNC player for being offsides on the kick that UNC would have gone down the field, scored a TD, scored on a 2-point conversion to tie it, and would have won in overtime.

But sure, Dabo is crazy for thinking the national sports media is against us.

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg

"IDIOT POSTER OF THE MONTH SO FAR...GWP-- You have won IPM Award for your failure to completely comprehend a clear post & then choose to attack someone who points out your ignorance. While you are not yet in the same No Class Catagory as deRoberts, ClemTiger117 & Tigerdug23, you are getting closer to the Sewer Dwellers." - coachmac


Re: About that UNC close call...


Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:46 AM
    Reply

WAIT A GALL DONG MINUTE.
DON'T YOU KNOW THE ONLY QUARTERBACK WHO CAN LEAD A TEAM DOWN FIELD TO WIN A GAME IN OT WAS SITTING ON THE SIDELINE AT THE ALABAMA AUBURN GAME ON SATURDAY.


Mack should have kicked the XP.


Posted: Dec 3, 2019 9:49 AM
    Reply

Our offense was stymied that day.

2020 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

The way I see it (concerning going for 2)

[1]
Posted: Dec 3, 2019 11:09 AM
    Reply

So with 1:30 left in the game Mack had a choice and had to weigh a few scenarios.

Scenario 1

--> Make the XP
--> Stop Clemson from scoring in 1:30 with the game tied
--> Win in OT


Scenario 2

--> Attempt XP but miss
--> Retrieve Onside Kick
--> Score with 1:30 left from around their own 45/50 yard line

Scenario 3

--> 2 Point conversion success
--> Stop Clemson from scoring in 1:30 with UNC leading

Scenario 4

--> 2 Point conversion failure
--> Retrieve Onside Kick
--> Score with 1:30 left from around their own 45/50 yard line


Scenarios 1 & 2 would be the path to winning by kicking the XP.
Scenarios 3 & 4 would be the path to winning by attempting the 2 point conversion.

Of course it is subjective how you see the likelihood of each of these happening, and I'm just spitballing here, but when I run the numbers using:

XP Success : 99%
2pt conversion success : 40%
Stop Clemson from scoring with 1:30 with UNC leading : 60%
Stop Clemson from scoring with 1:30 in tie game : 70%
UNC win in OT : 50%
Retrieve onside kick : 10%
UNC score in 1:30 with ball near midfield : 60%


Given those values (and of course ignoring secondary scenarios of a team scoring quickly and leaving further scenarios) then I calculate:

Scenario 1 (2pt success & stop Clemson) ........ 24.0%
Scenario 2 (2 pt failure, onside, UNC score) ... 3.6%
----
Likelihood of UNC winning going for 2 ....... 27.6%

Scenario 3 (Make XP, stop Clemson, win in OT) .... 34.65%
Scenario 4 (Miss XP, onside, UNC score) .......... 0.06%
-----
Likelihood of UNC winning attempting XP ....... 34.71%


Playing around with those numbers a bit, I still think the best case scenario for UNC to win would have been to attempt the XP and lengthen the game.

2020 white level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg


I don't think it was likely at all


Posted: Dec 3, 2019 10:10 AM
    Reply

1) The offense had not been playing well all day

2) Our FG kicking has been a disaster all year. How much confidence would have in Potter lining up for a 42 yard game winner? Or even worse... a 30 yard game winner?

If UNC gets that 2 pt conversation i think we definitely lose more than 50% of the time. Now with the way our offense is playing i would be much more confident, but looked very out of sync early in the year, especially in the passing game.


Re: About that UNC close call...


Posted: Dec 3, 2019 10:13 AM
    Reply

Complete and utter nonsense. There is no way you can definitely know that Trevor would have lead us to victory. If you watched the game, you may have noticed that we weren’t really tearing it up on offense that day. It’s much more likely that Potter would have shanked another FG attempt. Take off the orange colored glasses.

badge-donor-05yr.jpgmilitary_donation.jpg

Replies: 9  

TIGER TICKETS

FB GAME: Season Tickets
FOR SALE: 3 tickets squarely on the 50 yard line in section TDO, row P, $2100 for all.

Buy or Sell CU Tickets and More in Tiger Tickets!

[ Tiger Boards - Football ]
Start New Topic
1088 people have read this post