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Replies: 19
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110%er [7657]
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If you had to do an unbiased ranking of the top 25 CFB teams
Oct 21, 2014, 8:14 AM
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how would you measure SOS without taking into account preseason and current rankings? Keeping in mind that you would have to take into account all 128 FBS schools, how would you determine how tough a team is? Would you go with the basics - points scored, points allowed? Or would you rely on computer generated numbers (dreaded BCS) to determine SOS? I understand that the committee has analysts crunching numbers to aid them in their selection and my guess is that they may be using some computer models to guide them.
To ignore the media hype seems like a very daunting task.
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All-TigerNet [13360]
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If you wait until now, you don't have to
Oct 21, 2014, 8:17 AM
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Make any assumption on SOS.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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If you wait until now, you'd still have the same number
Oct 21, 2014, 8:21 AM
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of weeks with media hype to make the polls biased. The only difference is, it would level out some because you would've skipped some things like "South Carolina will contend for the national championship, wait no TAMU is amazing and they will contend for the national championship, wait no they both suck."
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All-TigerNet [13360]
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Maybe I'm nieve, but I would think you could make your own
Oct 21, 2014, 8:26 AM
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SOS now without listening to what the spin machines and prognosticators have guessed. Maybe it's just easier to ignore if you think as little of those polls as I do.
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110%er [7657]
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Re: If you wait until now, you'd still have the same number
Oct 21, 2014, 8:27 AM
[ in reply to If you wait until now, you'd still have the same number ] |
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Yep - you can eliminate some but not all of the hype. Like - is the state of Mississippi really better than FSU? If FSU struggles against Louisville (who is knocking on the door of the media top 25) does Louisville deserve a look, even if they lose?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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There is no easy answer, and it would be impossible
Oct 21, 2014, 8:18 AM
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to avoid all of the hype. Even if there were no preseason polls, the media would hype the teams they want to hype and those teams would rise to the top of the first polls.
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All-In [30593]
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human element = bias
Oct 21, 2014, 8:28 AM
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even the best playoff (NCAA men's tourney) has an element if bias in the selection process
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110%er [7657]
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Re: human element = bias
Oct 21, 2014, 8:38 AM
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This is true. I don't have a lot of faith in the committee, but I'm trying to trust the system. I just don't see how you go in thinking, Ok ... teams that have played well against the SEC West deserve a look. If they determine that Bama, Auburn, and the 2 Miss teams are truly the best, the sky will fall for sure.
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CU Medallion [58411]
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True, but it could be minimized by having a playoff
Oct 21, 2014, 9:24 AM
[ in reply to human element = bias ] |
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consisting of all conference champions, then filled out by highly ranked teams, no conference allowed more than 2 teams.
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CU Medallion [58411]
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You can't, thus the influence of polls, thus the influence
Oct 21, 2014, 8:38 AM
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of the SEC-biased ESPN driven media. No way around it.
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Legend [15216]
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My playoff as of now would be...
Oct 21, 2014, 8:41 AM
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FSU, Oregon, K State, Miss St
This will obviously change as things shake out.
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Standout [340]
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I actually did - created a formula to rank every team
Oct 21, 2014, 8:42 AM
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As with any math formula, the more data, the more accurate; however, I feel it's pretty close. Clemson is #21, USC #43 and the two Mississippi schools dead even at the top.
http://www.thetigerswag.com/2014/10/rankings-week-of-october-20th.html
To me, the only outlyer is Marshall, though their weak schedule going forward prevents them from moving forward.
Thoughts?
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110%er [7657]
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Re: I actually did - created a formula to rank every team
Oct 21, 2014, 8:54 AM
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My question here would be, how do you actually judge just how "weak" Marshall's schedule is? I don't follow the conference but my guess is many of the teams are ever pitted against the so-called strong teams, so how do you judge it. FIU lost to Louisville and Pitt. The others I have no idea. Marshall has beaten their opponents pretty handily so far.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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This is why a 4-team playoff doesn't cut it
Oct 21, 2014, 9:05 AM
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At 8 teams Marshall could make it. There's still a lot to play out this year, with top teams playing each other, but right now there's too strong of a push for SEC teams.
I'm probably in the minority thinking FSU should be #1. Returning national champs, reigning Heisman winner, they beat us when we were ranked without their best player, and they just beat the #5 team in the country. Regardless of how much I hate them, and despise Winston, I think they should be #1.
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110%er [7657]
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Re: This is why a 4-team playoff doesn't cut it
Oct 21, 2014, 9:31 AM
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I also think FSU should still be #1. They should have never lost their top spot. I'd also go so far as to say a 16 team playoff would be the best. But yes - I agree 4 will not cut it.
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CU Medallion [58411]
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Agree on 16 team playoff***
Oct 21, 2014, 9:51 AM
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Standout [340]
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Re: I actually did - created a formula to rank every team
Oct 21, 2014, 9:28 AM
[ in reply to Re: I actually did - created a formula to rank every team ] |
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Every team was placed into one of five tiers depending on their aggregate ranking. A win over a Tier 1 team is worth 10, Tier 2 is 20, and so on to Tier 5 worth 50. The Tier number is multiplied by margin of victory (1.0 for 10 or less, 1.2 for 11-20, 1.4 for 21-30, etc...). That number is then multiplied by 0.9 for home, 1.0 for neutral sites, and 1.1 for away, which is based on the fact that home teams are 10% more likely to win. Losses are the inverse where a loss to a Tier 5 team is worth -10 down to a loss to Tier 1 worth -50.
The reason Marshall is hanging around the Top 10 is they have no losses, so no negative points, and most other Power 5 teams have at least 1-2 wins over FCS or other low-level FBS schools (FCS are considered Tier 1). As the season wears on Marshall won't be able to earn any significant points and will slowly slip - unless every team has 1-2 losses...
Hope this helps...
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All-TigerNet [11170]
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my completely unbiased take
Oct 21, 2014, 9:17 AM
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1. Clemson
2-infinity= everyone else
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Some kind of mathematical formula no question.
Oct 21, 2014, 9:32 AM
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Humans cannot gauge SoS worth a crap without a metric like that to help.
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Letterman [294]
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50
