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Topic: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits
Replies: 29   Last Post: Mar 26, 2020 7:36 PM by: tigerrag86
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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[9]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:10 PM
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HE WAS WRONG.


https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model/



I am sure the "sky is falling" crowd will jump on this

[4]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:26 PM
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update and change their tune accordingly.....................

2020 white level member

Only 2 days to change his tune? Sounds reasonable.***


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:27 PM
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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[2]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:27 PM
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Hmm, wonder if he lowered his death estimated before, or AFTER he tested positive for the virus? He might be hoping that juggling his statistics will make him less likely to die. If USA Democrats get wind of this, they will make him an honorary member of the party, they love that kind of logical thinking! :)

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

This is what Nike/China controlled NBA used to shut down

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:29 PM
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therefore forcing every other sport to follow suit !!!


Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[3]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:34 PM
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I always get my news from the Daily Wire.


Sorry the truth hurts.

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:44 PM
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Follow the links in the Tweets included and your duma$$ will see. LOL


Calls someone a DA after posting links

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 4:53 PM
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to a rag site.

A special kind of arrogance.


Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 4:56 PM
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Here is the link to the Imperial College itself and their announcement.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/?fbclid=IwAR0-WEnsQiA_mQy-X4TaLlfmUvUbxvHT0cpVvCuYVbIceFhXQTx8FRnx83w

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:35 PM
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Is this the same one that said 2 million in California would die? I don't think we know enough to say what's going on. Sure would be nice to randomly test a sample and to also have that test to say whether or not you've had it before. Almost sounds like 2 different strains of the virus.

2020 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:35 PM
    Reply

He was only 2400% off. Nevertheless, as stated team apocalypse won't like this.

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:40 PM
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just stop

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[3]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 12:54 PM
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very misleading article. His original model stated those numbers were if no actions were taken. This article makes it sound as if he's now stated that it would only be 20,000 if no actions were taken, but actually his new prediction is based on what he's seeing now that actions have been taken.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/



Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 2:00 PM
    Reply

^^ Good article. I recall that 2M number as being an extreme, "if we do nothing" model. Also, if the UK estimate goes down to 4% of the original, I wonder if we can assume the US estimate would do the same, to 80k. That seems like a lot seeing as how we have a little over 1k now. So this doesn't really change my perspective a whole lot.


that would depend on whether the current group of


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 5:00 PM
    Reply

knuckleheads--the ones we discovered today didn't bother to follow the pandemic response blueprint two months ago--are going to take the actions needed to prevent this from killing a couple million of us.


Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 1:44 PM
    Reply

He now agrees with what Elon Musk has been saying for a couple of weeks now.

Once the curve is flattened, it won't be 100% clear sailing but this should peak within 2-3 weeks.

For the longest time, the line (of expectation of how bad COVID-19 would get) kept moving each and every day. It was mind-blowing. Hopefully starting soon, the reverse will happen.

We need the death rate in the U.S. to start going down.

New York and Florida are bellwethers.


Dr. Birx talked about how misleading the "numbers" can be


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 2:05 PM
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at yesterday's press conference. Her explanation follows:

https://youtu.be/P6zoft6skzc

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Re: Dr. Birx talked about how misleading the "numbers" can be

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 3:39 PM
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She doesn't sound nearly panicked enough. Must only care about the economy and want to kill old people.


Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 2:11 PM
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Isn't this the Daily wire that is next to the national enquirer at check out counters? ####, fox is not even reporting this.


Source within the article


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 2:29 PM
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/


"He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower."

2020 white level member

Clemson


Re: Source within the article

[3]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 2:56 PM
    Reply

You don't see the big difference in the two articles though? The one posted by the OP makes it sound as if he made those huge projections that there would be that many deaths from the virus no matter what happens, and that he's now changed his mind about that based on no reason at all. This article goes into much more detail over how the original projections were based on if nothing were done, and how the new numbers are based on the results of the restrictions taken. The original article is clearly coming from a place of twisting the facts in order to make it sound like the restrictions weren't needed in the first place.


I absolutely do


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 4:06 PM
    Reply

The headline of OPs article is badly worded, but dismissing an article based on who's publishing it without checking the sources of the article seems reckless and stubborn. It doesn't mean the conclusion of the scientist is invalid.

2020 white level member

Clemson


Re: Source within the article


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 4:50 PM
    Reply

Curious, why would you make projections based on "if nothing is done". When would you ever think or make projections like that?


Re: Source within the article


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 6:31 PM
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You do that to do a bit of "extremes testing". Suppose such a model said 100 people would be infected if nothing was done. If it did say that, you do nothing. Suppose the model says 2M would be infected? Then you start early testing (which we didn't), social distancing etc. It is how you set your strategy. By the way, they can model social distancing. Suppose data shows R0 is 3. Then they can model the growth with R0 = 3, R0 = 2 etc and try to determine a strategy to yield an optimal R0. I suspect those strategies are based on Covid19 experience in other countries as well as historical data.


Re: Source within the article


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 4:58 PM
    Reply

"All models are wrong but some are useful." George Box

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 3:35 PM
    Reply

Now the Democrats will be able to blame Trump for hyping this and destroying the entire economy because he wanted to be on TV every day. And I'm not even kidding. It will happen.


oh good grief, would you please shut up. Democrats are

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 5:03 PM
    Reply

very much hoping we get a handle on this. We all know people who are elderly, health-impaired, or some combination of that.


Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[1]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 3:55 PM
    Reply

WELL WELL WELL


Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
By Amanda PrestigiacomoDailyWire.com
Colorized Tem. The Coronaviruses Owe Their Name To The The Crown Like Projections, Visible Under Microscope, That Encircle The Capsid. The Coronaviruses Are Responsible For Respiratory Ailments And Gastro Enteritis. The Virus Responsible For Sars Belongs To This Family.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.


Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.


To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.


Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.



1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/



UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist
Neil Ferguson, whose modelling has informed the UK's coronavirus strategy, says that the need for intensive care beds will come close to, but not exceed, national capacity

@AlexBerenson
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.


Alex Berenson

3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.

@AlexBerenson
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/



J-IDEA’s Neil Ferguson tells MPs lockdown can help NHS manage coronavirus | Imperial News |...
CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - Imperial’s Neil Ferguson, Director of J-IDEA, has told MPs that the current UK lockdown could keep the coronavirus outbreak at manageable levels.

Replying to @AlexBerenson
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.



@AlexBerenson
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits

[2]
Posted: Mar 26, 2020 6:02 PM
    Reply

Have you confirmed this with tigerrag86? Don't worry he will enlighten us once he has time to read up on it.

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Re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits


Posted: Mar 26, 2020 7:36 PM
    Reply

That a U.K. doctor changed his “Worst case if no measures are taken” prediction after they locked down the country? Stop the presses!


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