Topic: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...
Replies: 26   Last Post: Jan 24, 2016 4:53 AM by: InletTiger15®
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Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:05 PM

A couple of years ago, we gave a scholarship to a big, strong, fast high 4-star LB out of Buford, Georgia who came in with pretty much a "can't miss" label ... but in fact, after earning a spot on the 2-deep, this can't miss player simply QUIT the team out of the blue just before the season leaving us really thin at LB last season.

At about the same time, we gave a preferred walk-on spot to a skinny little all-around athlete from Myrtle Beach who came in knowing that he would have to be hungry and hit the ground running to get and maintain a scholarship and that he would have to prove and re-prove himself every single day. When our best WR went down with injury, this kid provided much needed depth and actually worked his way into a starting position.

Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:38 PM

I think this kid managed to score a touchdown or two in the bowl games too. Sometimes Dabo gets it right!

Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:43 PM

Ok, so you documented a "miss". The walk on WR was not a "hit" because we didn't risk a scholarship for him to play. It was a "found" asset.

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sounds like a recruiting "hit" to me.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:46 PM

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Photobucket is holding my sig pic hostage. Screw them.

Re: sounds like a recruiting "hit" to me.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:50 PM

If Dabo thought he would catch 2 TDs in the NC game, he would have offered a scholly. NOT a hit.

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Re: sounds like a recruiting "hit" to me.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 6:56 PM

Is TJ Green a better example for you then?


Re: sounds like a recruiting "hit" to me.***

Posted: Jan 24, 2016 12:03 AM

That works for me.

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Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 24, 2016 1:29 AM

Got him to Clemson to play for his football team.

Sounds like a hit to me

Star ratings are a science, but not an exact science.

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:46 PM

A team with 65 4-5 stars will beat a team with 65 2-3 stars every time.

Some of those 2 or 3 stars will turn out better than some of the 4 & 5 stars, but on the average the higher star turns out to be the superioir athlete. Just how it is.

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"When I die, I want to go peacefully like my Grandfather did, in his sleep -- not screaming, like the passengers in his car."

"I don't suffer from insanity. I enjoy every minute of it."

So, why does

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 3:59 PM

Southern Cal and Texas keep getting the crap beat out them? They seem to have more 4/5 star players on a regular basis than most other teams. Star rankings aren't everything. It also involves work ethics, character, etc. Dabo has found several diamonds in the rough. I will keep trusting Dabo until he proves me wrong.

Go Tigers!

Message was edited by: WS Tiger®


Re: So, why does

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 4:16 PM

"Southern Cal"

Probation they lost scholarships.


Coaching they will be back

"Star rankings aren't everything"

When FAU ,Syracuse , Minnesota or any teams that recruit like them start winning national championships I will believe this.

^this sums it up pretty well. I'd like for somebody to show

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 5:28 PM

me a better way for us as fans to get some idea of which high school players are the best and the most likely to be successful in college. OF COURSE they miss on a lot of them, but the recruiting services are the ONLY sources of this kind of info. Are the flawed? OF COURSE THEY ARE FLAWED. Does it follow therefore that they are worthless? OF COURSE NOT. The fact is that 4 and 5 stars have more offers from the better programs, while 1 and 2 stars have fewer such offers. In short, The rankings generally mirror the opinions of the most successful coaches and programs, which I would say is the best forward-looking estimator we have. In the vast majority of cases, the 5-star will be a better college football player than the 1-star. To a slightly less accurate extent, 4-star recruits will be better college players than 2-stars. A team full of 4 and 5-stars will almost always be more talented than a team full of 2 and 3-stars. Now, of course things like coaching, injuries, brains, character, etc., play a huge role, but star ratings ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT! If a 5-star player fails, it does not mean the star rating system failed!

Bottom line: Star-ratings are a good general indicator of talent, and they are a good predictor of success in college, all other things being equal. That's exactly what they are, and it's all they are supposed to be.

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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken

A great way is to watch who Dabo offers scholarships to.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 10:01 PM


Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:54 PM

A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).

A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).

A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).

A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

Stars matter sorry


Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 1:57 PM

You need to quit using logic. You'll confuse everyone.

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That's nationwide... Try doing recent Clemson.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 2:14 PM

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Re: That's nationwide... Try doing recent Clemson.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 3:51 PM

I will look at all of the 247sports composite rated 5 stars since 2000. I will let you handle the 2&3 stars .

Airese Currie NFL

Roscoe Crosby not drafted

C.J. Spiller NFL

Ricky Sapp NFL

Da'Quan Bowers NFL

Mackensie Alexander will be drafted

Tony Steward NFL

Stephone Anthony NFL

Sammy Watkins NFL


Re: That's nationwide... Try doing recent Clemson.***

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 4:00 PM

2015 5 stars
Deon Cain
Ray Ray

2015 2 stars
Denzil Johnson
Amir Trapp

2014 5 stars
Deshaun Watson

2014 2 stars
JD Davis
Judah Davis
Hunter Renthrow (walk-on)

2013 5 stars
none but
Mac Alexander and Shaq Lawson were high 4 stars

2013 2 stars
DJ Greenlee
Ryan Carter
TJ Green

2012 5 stars
none but travis blanks was high 4 star

2012 2 stars
none but
TJ Burrell, Pat Desteph

ano, JJ McCullough low 3 stars

2011 5 stars
Sammy Watkins
Stephone Anthony
Tony Steward
Mike Bellamy

2011 2 stars
Colton Walls
Jerome Maybank
Adam Humphries

2010 5 stars
none but Josh Watson and Martavis Bryant high 4 stars

2010 2 stars
Sam Cooper
low 3 stars were Martin Jenkins Gilford Timothy and Tra Thomas

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Another story about recruiting

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 3:26 PM

Kid from NC wants to play college basketball.

He's all-conference and all-state in high school, BUT he's undersized and his HS competition isn't that great.

None of the big programs in NC want him. In fact, no major program wants him. Not even his father's alma-mater, Virginia Tech, who is hardly a basketball powerhouse.

So he goes to a small school instead.

He grows another 3 inches. Puts on some weight.

As a sophomore, he takes his school on a Cinderella run through the tournament, losing by 2 points to the eventual national champion in the Elite 8.

He goes on to the NBA.

By now you have figured out that I am talking about Stephen Curry. Last season, he led his team to an NBA title and won the NBA MVP. I bet VT fans wish that they had "wasted" a scholarship on this "legacy kid".

Recruiting services are evaluating 17-18 year old kids. They aren't fully mature. Nobody knows how they will develop. Nobody really knows the level of competition they are facing. NFL scouts have a hard enough time evaluating these factors on guys coming out of college, and there are a lot fewer factors involved.

Re: Another story about recruiting

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 3:30 PM

How ironic the team that recruits the best normally wins the championship. Renfrow might have been a find but let's not forget about the stud throwing this passes his way.

Re: Another story about recruiting

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 3:35 PM

I'm not saying we get all Hunter Renfrows. We'd be lucky to beat Wofford if we tried that! I am saying that recruiting evaluations are far from perfect.

Giving a scholarship to an unrated/underrated prospect who has potential isn't "wasting a scholarship".

Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 5:05 PM

There is no question that stars matter. People post the same threads about the statistical outliers like Renfrow. The SBNation article All In 52 linked is the truth. Read and understand it. It is about probabilities. In the case of Renfrow, he gained a lot of good weight without losing his speed. He is an exception. It is no coincidence that the remaining four NFL playoff QBs were some of the most highly recruited players in the country coming out of high school.

Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 5:19 PM

The ones that say stars don't matter are then same one's that will ##### about our recruiting rankings or how a recruit is ranked to low. Why do you care that feaster is a 4* on rivals and not a 5* if stars don't matter. The only time stars don't matter is when dabo hands picks a kid and gives him a scholly. Hunter Renfrow and nolan are not in the boat so stop reaching. For every 1 2* that happens to exceed, you can find 100 of them that don't. Chances are they are at your local gold's gym. Everyday a post is made about scar recruiting ranking sacking but yet in this case stars matter huh. When it comes tout evaluations I trust Coach V and Coach Reed a little more especially with defensive kids. When it comes to hires and building a program I trust dabo. Clemson wouldn't be in the position without coach v and Reed for that matter it's not all dabo here. How ironic clemson started becoming elite when these 2 coaches joined the staff. Hats off to dabo for putting the pieces in place that have led to this success but he didn't do it by himself.

^^^^cups farts^^^^****

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 5:33 PM

The OP did not say that "stars don't matter" ...

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 6:42 PM

The point seemed to be that you have to be willing to take a chance of a kid who you feel has potential, because he just might turn out to be a better fit with your program than the "sure fire" all star kid who doesn't pan out.

You need as many 5-stars as you can get, but you also need to be able to recognize that there are kids out there who will turn into 5-stars players down the road given the chance.

Kevin Dodd is still another example of one who appeared to be a "wasted scholarship" right up until he played his way into a potential first round NFL selection.

Kevin Dodd and Grady Jarrett were both just barely 3-star guys out of high school.

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Lemme guess....

Posted: Jan 23, 2016 6:45 PM

Hunter Renfrow?..... :D

Re: Hits & Misses in the "Science" of recruiting ...

Posted: Jan 24, 2016 4:53 AM

How's this working out for USUCK? I want a team of 5* players and if we get lucky with some hard working walk ons great.

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