Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

Oct 7, 2018, 11:23 AM

...because, as always here at midseason, they haven't actually played anyone yet.

They just beat BC, at home, 28-23, to go to 5-0. There's some caveats to that: they dominated statistically, outgaining the Eagles 533 to 318, and the game was made to look closer than it was because BC blocked a punt for a TD, and also got 2 INT's. The other side of that is that BC was playing without AJ Dillon, the absolute bell-cow #1 do-everything guy that BC's offense builds, well, everything around.

The Wolfpack's only other win against a team with something resembling a pulse was over a thoroughly mediocre UVA team 35-21...again, at home, and it was a lot more even in terms of yardage: 433-351. The Hoos are, well, utterly average. After Week 5, they had the #61 offense in the country (418.0ypg), a statistically decent defense (#27 overall after Week 5, at 324.6ypg), and victories over FCS-level Richmond, Ohio, and hapless Louisville. S&P+ was not impressed; the Hoos were rated the 45th-best team in college football, just ahead of such stalwarts as Ole Miss and Iowa State.

After that the Wolfies feasted on their usual early-season fare of the creamiest of cream-puffs: FCS James Madison, Georgia State, and Marshall. Uncharacteristically for the Pack, they did actually schedule West Virginia but thanks to Hurricane Florence they didn't actually play that game, so their 10-year streak of holding College Football's Most Embarrassing Early Schedule remains intact.

Week 6 stats haven't updated yet, but the Wolfpack currently average 480.1 yards per game of offense, which would put them around 27th, nationally. They allow 344.6 yards per game, good for about 40th overall nationally. (Clemson ranks 10th in total O and 4th overall in total D, by way of comparison.) S&P+ had the Wolfies 24th overall; the football math geeks have Clemson 2nd.

What the Pack assuredly do have is some impressive components in the passing game. Ryan Finley is rated the #1 QB in the upcoming draft per some services. He's a 6th-year guy who managed to both play as a true frosh and medically redshirt before graduating early and transferring from Boise to NC State, so he's got more experience than any QB in college football. He also has some good, very stout WR's on the outside, Kelvin Harmon (6'3", 214) and Jakobi Meyers (6'2", 203), both juniors, and both can go up and get it, and win jump-balls and physical battles against aggressive teams that like to press and bully...you know, like, well, Clemson. They gave us fits last year, caught 17 balls for 260 yards and 2 TD's between them, and Finley himself threw for 338 and 3 TD's. Finley also isn't super-mobile but he's a willing rusher and did damage with his feet, and he'll lay out and risk his body in big games to win.

I'm more dubious about the rest of their team. They replaced almost all of last year's OL and DL, both of which were VERY stout...this especially means Bradley Chubb and his 54.5TFL and 25 career sacks. Their rushing game in particular looks way down; their leading rusher, Reggie Gallaspy II, has rushed for just 324 yards on 89 carries for just 3.6ypc, though he does have 7 TD's. Ricky Person Jr. (how is that different than "II", I wonder? Oh, nevermind) is their change-of-pace guy and he's getting 5.5ypc...on just 37 totes, which is better, but the Wolfies are still only averaging 3.9 yards per rush. (Clemson is averaging 7.0, which is insane.)

The bottom line is that Finley is going to make some throws, and his big wideouts are going to win some battles. But we do have to keep pressure in his face, we do have to stuff their run game, and we have to establish our own running game. Best guess: Doeren will probably stack the box, and bring a lot of pressures and looks to both try to stuff the run and confuse our freshman QB, and he'll likely try to make Lawrence beat the Wolfies down the field to win.

We'll see how it goes. But it is worth noting that Finley is exactly the sort of QB who has success against our D...and you know Doeren and the Wolfies want this one real bad. If the Wolfies can survive up front, they do have the matchups to potentially give us a game.

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Well said as always quozzel. As fun as yesterday was, I really had hoped we would have gotten some good practice for both Trevor and Chase in the passing game. I know, take what the D gives you yada yada but we need build some chemistry between qb and receivers.

Not sure if it’s the oline or TE, rb or what but our pass pro has gotten bad the last two games. Play calling is, well who knows. If Dez really got under ScElliott as much as it seems then that’s bad and got them to change play calling... idk.

Just would have liked to see use of the TE and quick slants etc, something I feel we’re really going to have to use that against state. The wr gonna have to get out their breaks quick. Is TL getting out his natural game? Are we trying to build something he’s not? Just asking.

Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

it will be their super bowl. just like Syracuse every year***

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

fo’ shizzle.

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

The same can be said for UGA, their best win is

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

As you said, they are up to 22nd in the new S&P+ ratings.

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

They remind me of Syracuse...

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

Re: Hard to tell how good NC State is yet...

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