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Orange Blooded [2692]
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this election wasn’t even that close
Nov 9, 2020, 12:09 PM
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306 electoral votes plus a 6.9 million vote plurality for Biden. We shouldn’t be calling this a close election.
20th century winner’s popular vote margins:
2000: -543,816
2004: 3,012,171
2008: 9,550,153
2012: 4,982,291
2016: - 2,868,686
2020: (est.) 6,900,000
This election was more decisive than all but 2008, and Biden bested Trump’s 2016 net margin by nearly 10 million votes.
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All-In [26968]
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In the Electoral College system, it takes a little
Nov 9, 2020, 12:26 PM
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more math to really determine how close it is relative to other elections, than just going by EV count or popular vote count. I'd use a mixture.
I would try to come up with the least number of votes I could to change state results to swing the Electoral Vote to the other side.
Based on the current count in 2020, I would pick PA, GA, and NC (assuming NC goes to the President). The margins of those states add up to something like 73,000 votes, and that number might creep up some.
If you do the same thing for 2016 for MI, WI, and PA, then that vote total is around 78,000. So by this measure, the 2020 election is actually a little closer than 2016.
Same process for other elections:
2012: 429,500
2008: 1.1 million
2004: 117,000
2000: 537
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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I'm glad somebody did the hard math...
Nov 9, 2020, 12:28 PM
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this was my response, but I didn't want to go state by state. I'm assuming you found this some place and you don't have a spreadsheet.
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All-In [26968]
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Just used arithmetic, and vote counts from Wikipedia.***
Nov 9, 2020, 12:39 PM
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: In the Electoral College system, it takes a little
Nov 9, 2020, 12:32 PM
[ in reply to In the Electoral College system, it takes a little ] |
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Prodigal,
That might be the more accurate way to measure the (arcane) closeness election, but the mandate is more closely tied to the popular vote or even the EC vote, don't you think ??
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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what's the mandate?
Nov 9, 2020, 12:35 PM
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Joe's not Trump?
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All-In [26968]
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All-In [26968]
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All-In [34100]
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All-In [26968]
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Orange Blooded [2692]
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sure it is easy cherry pick a few close states
Nov 9, 2020, 1:19 PM
[ in reply to In the Electoral College system, it takes a little ] |
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and then say it was a close election.
This is the beauty of electoral college reasoning, it allows you to discount the actual votes from large states, which begs the question, why is California even still in our country anyway?
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All-In [26968]
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I didn't "cherry pick". I systematically picked those
Nov 9, 2020, 1:24 PM
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that would swing the election on the fewest number of votes. Which is how I would measure "close" in such an election.
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All-In [26968]
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For example, if the EV count was 323 to 215.
Nov 9, 2020, 1:28 PM
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An California was won by only 10 votes by the EV leader, I'd say that was really close to going the other way, regardless of that EV margin.
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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I think that is still missing the balance that the EC...
Nov 9, 2020, 1:27 PM
[ in reply to sure it is easy cherry pick a few close states ] |
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measures. It measures both popular votes while representing the individual states. It does not ignore the popular vote. Why do some states have more weight than others?
Our bicameral Congress is designed to do the same thing.
Biden is welcomed to claim a mandate on these results, but I don't think that will work with the 49.3% of the people who did not vote for him. Those same people also voted for more Republican representation in the House and did not swing the Senate in his favor. If that changes in January, he may can make a claim.
The winning message that he should keep pushing is we are a divided country and I am going to work toward building consensus - not I have a mandate.
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All-In [26968]
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It's a non-sensical thing to talk about: "claim a mandate"
Nov 9, 2020, 1:30 PM
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He's just going to do what he thinks he should do as President. What would he do differently if he "claimed a mandate," as opposed to if he didn't? It's not a thing, except something to say to try to make people think he is more right.
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Heisman Winner [111428]
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Re: this election wasn’t even that close
Nov 9, 2020, 12:29 PM
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dang, I predicted 7 million. I need to work on my fuzzy math and democrats need to win statehouses so this redistricting crap does not keep coming back to bite us in the electoral college.
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Hall of Famer [22381]
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That's the population of South Carolina, ND, SD and WY
Nov 9, 2020, 12:43 PM
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combined.
That's an ### whipping.
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All-TigerNet [12573]
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Re: this election wasn’t even that close
Nov 9, 2020, 12:49 PM
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It's all in the eyes of the beholder. The popular vote is about 3% more for Biden. More votes were cast this year than 2016 when Clinton also won about 3% more of the popular vote.The Electoral College with 306 votes for Biden was the same 306 as Trump won in 2016.Biden at the present is leading NV by 6K, AZ by 17K,WI by 20K,MI by 46K, GA by 11K and PA by 46K. So 6 states all won by Biden were won by a total of around 146K votes. I would say that's close. California alone gave Biden 4.5 million more votes than Trump. Congratulations to Biden for winning the election. Hopefully he will govern from the center as this country is pretty close to a 50/50 country. He has no overwhelming mandate.
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All-In [46801]
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I think that is the mandate
Nov 9, 2020, 1:25 PM
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be a president for the middle.
The people in the middle of the political specturm is what got him there.
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All-TigerNet [12573]
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Re: I think that is the mandate
Nov 9, 2020, 2:18 PM
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I hope you're right. Bernie and AOC do not see it that way. He will have more difficulty dealing with the "progressives" in his own party than in getting some things done by dealing with the Senate. His hands will be tied to some extent by a GOP Senate, but that may turn out well for him as he can honestly claim that he is unable to push the left's agenda. This election was a rejection of Trump the person rather than conservative policies. The GOP surprisingly won seats in the House and has thus far defended most of the vulnerable Senate seats. The GOP had significant Statehouse wins and will be in position to control redistricting. I never liked Trump the person. Never. I did end up voting for him on his policies while totally disliking his style. Towards the end, I realized I would be ok with Biden winning as long as the Senate held GOP. Things will be much more calm and I like gridlock as a whole. Government should be out of our lives as much as possible. I wish Biden to have a healthy and successful centrist term. He is fortunate that he will be the recipient of good feelings if indeed Pfizer's projection of a 90% effective vaccine proves true. I am however pissedd that Jaime Harrison wants Muschamp gone. Thankfully none of his war chest is available to buy out Will! I realize Harrison was joking, but to even raise the issue of firing Muschamp is annoying.
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