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All-TigerNet [13036]
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Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 9:49 AM
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from this weeks CBS Sports "Cover 3 Podcast" about player movement in the recruiting rankings. I thought some people might find his explanation interesting although i doubt it's a compelling enough argument to really sway anyone to his side.
Tom Fornelli:
"Is there a fanbase that exists that does not believe that 247 and other recruiting sites devalue a player as soon as they commit to their program?"
Barton:
"No, and I'll tell you why that is. It is because... just the nature of the rankings... more guys will move up than will move down. And so if you're not moving up and not moving down you are just kind of staying status quo, so if a guy moves up 200 spots then there are 200 people below him that have moved down 1 spot. And so if a few people move up 50 spots or a few people move up 100 spots then all of a sudden these moves pile up and if you're just a guy that was status quo you move down 10, 15, even 20 spots or what have you, and everyone looks at things in the view point of their school. They're not seeing the big picture, they're just seeing "my guys moved down. And, oh, the one guy moved up but that guy should've been ranked higher anyways so I'm not going to give you credit for something you had wrong before. Now you corrected your error but you screwed all my other guys."
It's understandable because they are looking through their team colored glasses, but it's very much a perception issue on their end and not a bias issue on their end.
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Hall of Famer [23100]
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They moved Capehart down
Jan 29, 2020, 10:07 AM
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IMG, a football factory, not your average local high school, their coaches said he was the best DL to ever come thru that school. No Orange Tinted Glasses needed to see that moving him down BS. I like following the rankings, but any system that already has a set number of 4 & 5 stars before it gets started is FLAWED.
247 themselves say that they're are 32 5 stars each year because there 32 NFL teams ?
https://247sports.com/Article/247Sports-Rating-Explanation-81574/
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All-In [27366]
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Math would tell you that if half the teams ranking moved
Jan 29, 2020, 10:13 AM
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down, then half of them would move up,
suggesting only half the fan bases would believe their players are being devalued.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: Math would tell you that if half the teams ranking moved
Jan 29, 2020, 10:42 AM
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My interpretation is that he is saying that there are bigger jumps downward than upward. If a player drops 10 places then 10 guys move up. If a guy jumps 5 places only 5 guys move down. Net is the same but more guys move with the bigger change.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 10:48 AM
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He lost me when he said "more kids move up than down..... when 1 kid moves up 200 spots it moves 200 kids down".
This explains a lot about his rankings errors and his math/logic skills in general if he is trying to tell me that 1 kid is more kids than 200 kids.
He also alludes to the fact that he thinks more people should understand when they are fixing previous mistakes.
His admission of multiple errors is not going to give people reassurance that his current decisions are not including more errors.
Honestly, his weak attempt at excusing the changes makes me question what they do even more.
If he came out and said something simple like, "all fans are biased but we don't pay attention to team affiliations. We simply keep getting more information on players and try to be as accurate as possible once we have gathered everything."
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CU Guru [1370]
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Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 10:57 AM
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Just like ESPN they will not give up money they get from SEC homers looking at and sponsoring their site!!
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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I think what he was trying to say is that most players that move
Jan 29, 2020, 11:02 AM
[ in reply to Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting) ] |
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down do so because of others moving upwards in the rankings and not because they just wanted to drop a player.
The end result is the same but it's a more positive spin on it.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: I think what he was trying to say is that most players that move
Jan 29, 2020, 11:20 AM
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Spin is the right word to use.
Their ranking adjustments don't reflect that way of thinking about it.
There are a very similar number of 20 rank drops as their are 20 rank rises.
I can't imagine the 20 rank drops are because Simmons felt that 20 guys needed to move up once spot.
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Orange Blooded [3639]
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Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 10:56 AM
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I respect 247. Rivals too. They have their money and resources where their mouth is when it comes to CFB recruiting.
ESPN is a completely different story. They need to triple or quadruple their staff to catch up.
247 is too diverse and has too many contributors to target individual schools.
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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If anything ESPN probably lost resources with the massive
Jan 29, 2020, 11:15 AM
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cuts to their CFB staff. I don't see how they could have the manpower to produce accurate scouting grades. I actually like Tom Luginbill, but he's supposed to be the director of ESPN's Scouts, INC yet he seems to spend the majority of his time on television.
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Legend [15492]
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Simmons is wrong
Jan 29, 2020, 11:01 AM
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about looking through 'team colored glasses'. Clemson commits should always move up, period. Just stack 'em all at the top and walk away. That's what any independent viewer would conclude.
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All-Pro [660]
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Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 11:12 AM
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So he is saying that typically a recruit “improves” rather than “regresses” - regardless of ratings or stars, those evaluating recruits are more likely to give a kid a better evaluation rather than alter an earlier evaluation and downgrade them.
So if you have 100 kids ranked 1 to 100, and upon re-evaluation, they all remain the same except number 100, and kid number 100 improves and you decide to slot him at number 50, then that means 49 kids have to drop in ratings (even though they didn’t change) - making potentially 49 fan bases mad because their guy moved down.
Of course it works in reverse also but I think he is saying evaluations typically improve rather than worsen. The question is do rating services actually evaluate without bias rather than look at a kids recent offers in order to obtain new “scores”
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All-TigerNet [13036]
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Exactly
Jan 29, 2020, 11:17 AM
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And he pretty much dodged the crux of the issue which you mentioned at the end of your post.
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Hall of Famer [22127]
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Re: Excerpt of Barton Simmons (247 director of scouting)
Jan 29, 2020, 11:36 AM
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I can understand a player being moved up or down during the season when his performance is on public display, but I can't understand how a player can move up 200 spots and others down 200 spots after the season is over. Also, there is a huge difference in the rankings for some players between the recruiting services, indicating all players are not judged equally.
We fans are more concerned about our player rankings than our staff. Regardless of how the recruiting experts rank the players, Dabo and staff have their own criteria for evaluating talent, The record shows they have done an excellent job. Personally, I like to see Clemson's recruiting class ranked Number one but in the end, it's what occurs on the field that counts.
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