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I’m slow to criticize NickyS but #### that fake fg was dumb. So your kicker
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I’m slow to criticize NickyS but #### that fake fg was dumb. So your kicker


Jan 9, 2019, 2:44 PM

Is going to be the one that can block our defensive line who your offensive line can’t even block. Again not so much that it was a fake fg as much as how stoopid the play was.

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I'm guessing the kicker/holder misread the defense...


Jan 9, 2019, 2:50 PM

no one in their right mind runs a fake against that defensive set.

If the coaches called it from the sidelines after the defense was set, it's an even more foolish decision.
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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


that makes sense***


Jan 9, 2019, 2:51 PM



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Everyone saw the defense.


Jan 9, 2019, 2:59 PM [ in reply to I'm guessing the kicker/holder misread the defense... ]

In a call like that they have to have a call to wave off the fake. Absent that they have to have a coach ready and able to call a TO.

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my dad said, they are going to fake it and walked off to the


Jan 9, 2019, 3:05 PM

bathroom.

it was grand

he got back and was all I told you so

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That’s confidence, I like it. Roughly familiar to that confidence when you saw DW4


Jan 9, 2019, 3:08 PM

Rolling right and Hunter Renfrow wife open, you knew it was a td before the ball left DWs hands. I was yelling yes and jumping up and down before the ball was caught as I’m sure many of us were.

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Re: I’m slow to criticize NickyS but #### that fake fg was dumb. So your kicker


Jan 9, 2019, 3:08 PM

There is a Moneyball-style statistical analysis report out there indicating that the fake FG has a higher probability of success than just going for it. You can google for it - I linked it last time we faked one and failed. Much like the stock market though, these moneyball stats are useless once anyone else is aware of them, because they will change their behavior.

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Those stats are often skewed


Jan 9, 2019, 3:19 PM

Like you said, they can be skewed based on the fact that the mere awareness of them changes future success rates, but even moreover this particular stat is skewed by situational variables.

I would imagine there aren't many data points to run the stats on for 4th and medium at around the 20 when down 2 TD's when trotting out a questionable kicker midway through the third. That alone makes it hard to use past success rates to predict any sort of likelihood of current possible success.

Add to that that we came out in entirely base defense and it was doomed before it ever started and no stat should've made any of their coaches feel better about running it versus calling a TO and bringing your offense back out, or hot-audibling to a FG.

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