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Topic: Encouraging news...
Replies: 21   Last Post: Aug 28, 2020 7:12 AM by: GEPSTiger
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Encouraging news...

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Posted: Aug 27, 2020 12:41 AM
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Abbott gets approval for $5 Covid test with 15 minute result. Simple and quick way to isolate positives to prevent spread or free people testing negative to live, work, and play sports. Accuracy rate of 97%. Expect to ship 50 million in September then more.

2020 orange level member

Re: Encouraging news...

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Posted: Aug 27, 2020 12:42 AM
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https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/fda-greenlights-abbotts-new-5-coronavirus-test-that-provides-results-within-15-minutes

2020 orange level member

Dear Big Ten, I've got great news for you...

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:17 AM
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Russia is definitely going to have a vaccine ready for your spring season! WooHoo for you!


97%?? I wouldn't take a test to market unless it was

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:31 AM
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Six Sigma, which is what the upper echelon of industry (at least those that keep statistics) strives to achieve in terms of errors.

97% means THREE OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED would get a false result. Take a crowd of 100 people, and how many people those 3 who could be infected and not show it due to false result come in contact with, and BOOM, a mini-pandemic.

Six Sigma, on the other hand, is 3.4 errors per MILLION tests. (99.99966%)

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

The are probably marketing it to situations where people

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:39 AM
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will get tested very frequently - daily or more. And in that way, the redundancy of overlapping tests will effectively create better than 3% error. That would be my guess at least.


Yes, at $5 a test could have 12 tests @ cost of paw level

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:50 AM
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:) :) :)

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Re: The are probably marketing it to situations where people

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 11:00 AM
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olemike59 said:

will get tested very frequently - daily or more. And in that way, the redundancy of overlapping tests will effectively create better than 3% error. That would be my guess at least.


Exactly. This could be used daily at a school, or hospital to identify people with the virus before they reach peak infectious condition. Not perfect but way ahead of where testing is right now. With daily detection contact tracing would improve dramatically.


Re: 97%?? I wouldn't take a test to market unless it was

[2]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 1:57 PM
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But think of it this way - you're on a plane doing down, we have a parachute with 97% success rate, or one with 90% success rate. Which one you want? The plane is certain death - may as well take the 97% 'chute, right?

No, I'm not talking any percentages concerning Covid mortality etc. But if there is a better test than 97% but longer wait times, then the verdict after 3-5 days is less accurate than 97% in 15 minutes. Because so many things have changed for that individual in those 3-5 days (where did he go, who did he meet).


We don’t have time for six sigma, unfortunately.

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 2:11 PM
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You might be a green beret or a black belt. Did you see the false positive rates on the test we have been using ?

Sounds like it’s time to load up on Abbott again.

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Lean sigma blackbelks get no respect at cobra kai***

[2]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 2:24 PM
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2020 white level member

Re: 97%?? I wouldn't take a test to market unless it was


Posted: Aug 28, 2020 7:12 AM
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If you're going to talk Six Sigma then you want to consider if these are Type 1 or Type 2 errors. Type 1 is a false positive and Type 2 is a false negative. Its easy enough to retest the positives since you expect a lot fewer of them and you can use the same test or another test. This would greatly reduce the chance of people infecting others. Its like a pregnancy test, after the at home test shows positive then you go to the OB GYN and have them test you.

Either way this is good news, we're not going to be 100% accurate but you are going to drastically reduce the risks to the overall population and that should be the goal.


Pig

Re: Encouraging news...


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 11:05 AM
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But now the CDC says not to get tested if you've been exposed but are showing no symptoms (unless you are vulnerable).


You DO remember that they said basically the same thing back


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 4:24 PM
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in March/April, right?

At the time they were so afraid of filling up Hospitals and Doctors' Offices that they effectively just told people not to go get help unless you felt one of the late period symptoms such as tightness of the chest.

Why they're doing this now, who knows? Could be Trump; could be a reticence to continue filling up test sites or labs; could be the recognition that the Data shows that the previous advice wasn't far off - if you don't have symptoms and you're not in an age or comorbidity bracket, then likely you're going to be fine in the short term.

Who knows yet what the long term effect is.

But I also believe they're simply waiving the white flag over trying to keep this out of the Human population. The only way you could do that would be to put everyone in a personalized 6' hole.


How long until complaints about higher # of positive cases?


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 1:40 PM
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We should be testing more (not less). Glad to see these rapid-results are moving into production.

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Absolutely - need to shut everything down again***

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 2:18 PM
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No. We need to find all the cases and quarantine those folks


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 3:11 PM
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So the rest of society can stay open.

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this is old line thinking - there is absolutely NO DATA

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 4:37 PM
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that shows that this virus can be removed from the human population by starving it of hosts. Singapore tried this; New Zealand tried this; etc. etc. Some have fared better than others; some have been successful but only for short periods. Its likely that with our transient society models these places will be infected at some point anyway once they reopen closer to normal levels.

In fact it appears that most are coming to the conclusion that this is so contagious, yet so de minimus in effect for most people, that simply letting the virus work its way through the population might be the best way to go.

I think everyone is hoping on a vaccine as well, but with up to 11 variants of the virus at this point, one has to wonder exactly how effective that may be. So imagine a country stopping it's initial infection with mandatory vaccination, only to have travelers bring another variant into the country 3 months after they reopen. And that's presuming it's not going to mutate again and again. This might be a worrying point for use of vaccines: if the virus is going to continually mutate, what are the odds that it won't at some point mutate to a more deadly form? If this occurs, one might want natural immunities rather than those from a test-tube.


Can't stop spread, but can try to limit it

[1]
Posted: Aug 27, 2020 4:43 PM
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Same reason we send home any employee that's sick, or why we cough into our elbows. Try to limit exposure as much as we can.

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until WHEN? lol. some of you people will write anything


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:42 PM
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Idiot 1: Yeah, yeah - limit the exposure, limit it. No matter what or how!

Idiot 2: But it's 2047 and we're still not fully open.

Idiot 1: Well at least people are back to dying from the flu now instead of {sniff, sniff} that bad bat disease.

Idiot 2: Yep, no doubt. We even reported a yearly high in Heart Attacks and Lightning Strikes both last month. We've got to be proud about that!

Idiot 1: Yeah; we just need to work on drug overdoses now. Get a few more of those back in the Death column, and we'll be rocking and rolling.


Got news for ya


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 10:48 PM
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No one wants everything to be "shut down". There are only people who think there are other people who want everything to be "shut down".


I know you said something, or maybe not


Posted: Aug 28, 2020 3:13 AM
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apparently only locks on doors actually tell the truth.


Re: Encouraging news...


Posted: Aug 27, 2020 7:13 PM
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Awesome!!!


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