All-In [28248]
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Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:35 AM
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if all of the leans become solid in the direction they are leaning, this is where we are. What am I missing?
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Hall of Famer [23247]
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You have PA and GA as red.
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:36 AM
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They are VERY much up in the air.
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All-In [28248]
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Who would have every thought Georgia wouldn't be
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:37 AM
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deep red?
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110%er [8628]
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Re: Who would have every thought Georgia wouldn't be
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:40 AM
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GA has been trending bluer and bluer every election cycle. Non-stop influx of people from California and the Northeast due to low cost of living and strong economy. They are bringing the politics they fled with them.
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110%er [5670]
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Joined: 9/11/11
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me
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:03 AM
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that's why I moved 
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All-TigerNet [11070]
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Joined: 8/10/13
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:37 AM
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Michigan. Most predictions are Biden wins it.
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All-In [28248]
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Wow. If GA and PA goes to Trump
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
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and Mich goes to Joe
Then Joe wins BY 2 EC VOTES
WHAT THE ####
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Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
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Lets start with voter fraud maybe that is what you are missing.
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Oculus Spirit [75443]
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When did WI go blue?
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
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When I went to bed it was a pretty good red lean by a percent or two. Full admission, have checked nothing this morning
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Hall of Famer [22618]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Joined: 7/6/10
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Well, this morning.
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
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Votes came in from Milwaukee. To be fair, it's not "Blue" yet. No one has called it. But the Vice President now leads by a small amount.
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Oculus Spirit [75443]
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Funny thing about Milwaukee,
[3]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:40 AM
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It’s Algonquin for “the good land”. Did you know that?
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Hall of Famer [22618]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Joined: 7/6/10
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No, I had forgotten most of my Algonquin.
[2]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:41 AM
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Cool beans.
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CU Medallion [72291]
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CU Medallion [58511]
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it literally went up 300k out of nowhere. it was crazy***
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:46 AM
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Orange Blooded [3040]
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Re: it literally went up 300k out of nowhere. it was crazy***
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:59 AM
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X
300K is an awful lot, but as mail-in and absentee ballots are counted, I think you will see a number of significant jumps in tallies in a number of states over the next few days.
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CU Medallion [58511]
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not suggesting any nepharious. just 1 minute, Trump was
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:11 AM
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up 4%. Next minute, he was down.
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Hall of Famer [22618]
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It did indeed happen that way.
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:16 AM
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Milwaukee area turned in a big chunk.
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All-TigerNet [11070]
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
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I'm thinking 270 to 264 lol
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Orange Blooded [3040]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Joined: 1/4/17
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:02 AM
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I'm think you are missing a few votes in your total there.
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110%er [6556]
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Michigan and PA could very easily turn blue by the time
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
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they are done counting...
GA is still up in the air - many uncounted "city" votes.
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Hall of Famer [22618]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Michigan looks likely to flip.
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
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That's the difference, and potentially the only difference that matters. The lead for the President is shrinking, and most seem to think it will go the other way now.
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Hall of Famer [22618]
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FWIW, the President's lead has held around 27,000 votes
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:53 AM
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For the last hour or more, even as more results creep in. So the hemorrhaging stopped, for now.
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Hall of Famer [22618]
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There it goes: now down to 15,000.***
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:04 AM
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All-In [33284]
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Joined: 1/29/05
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Election fraud***
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
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110%er [8628]
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Flip GA to Biden and Biden wins 270-268
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:42 AM
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Expect a strongly contested GA count if that happens. Fulton and DeKalb still haven’t turned in their numbers after a mysterious water main break at 1 precinct.
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Oculus Spirit [75443]
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Stacey Abrams will make sure they’re all counted. No worries***
[2]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:59 AM
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Hall of Famer [22618]
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Joined: 7/6/10
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I'm seeing people say PA will flip if the current
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:46 AM
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data on absentee ballots holds (if the remaining absentee votes to be counted are the same proportion to VP Biden as the ones that have already been counted). It's a mighty big margin right now, though.
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Orange Blooded [3040]
TigerPulse: 79%
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Joined: 1/4/17
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:56 AM
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538 does not have the traditional blue/red map, but they have people dedicated to each of the states still in play live blogging about the county details of votes still to be counted. i have found it very good at helping me understand local trends.
You might want to check it out.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ 2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage Live election results and coverage of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and the race for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
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110%er [6756]
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Joined: 11/9/04
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it's looking good for your candidate.......
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:58 AM
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margins in GA, Michigan, & NC razor thin.
general thinking is that the democratic cities in those states haven't been counted which will go Biden and/or the mail-in hasn't been counted which will go 65/35 biden.
Once AZ flipped to Biden I turned it off.
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CU Medallion [72291]
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What's left are the mail-in ballots
[3]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:02 AM
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Those break 2/3 to Biden, roughly. Depending on the margins, that is what is keeping these states in play, and is exactly what Trump knew would happen. Dems want to avoid the covid (with good reason) and vote by mail far more than Trump voters.
Now the Sun Belt states have rules that they can count mail in votes early. So when Texas and FL appeared dem leaning early, that was the mailin vote count showing up before in person votes. The in person votes were then tallied and that pushed Trump ahead.
The states in play now have rules that mailin votes can not be counted until election day. They can't start early. As such, those states finish tallying their in person votes first, and what's left are the mail-in ballots. Those break 2/3 (average) for Biden.
Most of what is left at this point will favor an increase for Biden in close states. Is that enough to make up the difference? It certainly COULD be. And evidently by 2:30am Trump knew this and did his dog and pony speech, which was a very bad idea.
So we go to the courts. So what happens? Well, IMO Trump has a MUCH greater legal hurdle than Algore did in 2000. Algore et. al. wanted a recount. And then a recount of the recount. Mailin votes were not a factor then. But what Trump is asking is for counting to stop, for votes NOT to be counted, and as such that's a much larger hurdle for a court to rule in favor of IMO. The court will err on the side of bending to the rules to ensure every vote is counted over bending the rules to make sure some votes are excluded. He will have to manufacture some standing first, and that alone will be difficult.
This is why these states are in play much more than Florida was in 2000.
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Orange Blooded [3040]
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Re: What's left are the mail-in ballots
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:08 AM
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Tiggity,
Excellent analysis. I would only add that a significant number of votes yet to be counted are also in the larger cities in the states still in question. i would expect urban votes to favor Biden as well.
538 is doing some good reporting on the more local aspects of the races in those states.
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CU Guru [1141]
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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:09 AM
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Apparently millions of people decided they were for higher taxes, higher energy costs, higher unemployment, terrible trade deals, bending over for China, Antifa, cancel culture, Marxism, looting, arson, riots, open borders, and no second amendment. Beats me how that's a winning platform but it is more solid proof that leftism is a mental illness. I hope I'm wrong but it's looking like at least four years of a Harris administration. Hope I can make it without being executed by a deranged leftist for a thought crime.
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All-In [28248]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20799
Joined: 8/11/15
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Because Trump was that bad of a president***
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:10 AM
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Hall of Famer [21481]
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Posts: 24724
Joined: 11/30/98
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Biden has already taken the lead in MI
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:10 AM
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Expect more flips as mail-ins are counted.
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