|
Replies: 8
| visibility 1,420
|
Orange Blooded [4299]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2985
Joined: 10/17/02
|
ESPN Playoff predictor
Oct 29, 2018, 9:29 AM
|
|
The tigers are the favorite to make the CFP according to the article on ESPN:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/roadtochamp102718/legitimate-college-football-playoff-contenders-power-5-conference
"The Tigers have a 91.9 percent chance to reach the playoff, the best of any team."
That's cool, but I think they may have a bit of a math problem later on in the article...
"Georgia has a 40.2 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 3.9 percent chance to win the conference."
So they are saying that a 2-loss Georgia as a good chance (~37%) to still make the playoff. If they only have a less than 4% chance to win the SEC, how is it that they are still so likely to make the CFP having 2-losses (if they don't)? I just can't believe that.
If UGA wins the SEC, I would say it is 100% that they make the CFP. ESPN says that it is 3.9% that they win, therefore the remaining chance that the are given must be based on a 2-loss scenario.
Same shyt for Michigan..
"Michigan has a 40.7 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 3.9 percent chance to win the conference."
|
|
|
|
 |
110%er [5014]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2672
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: ESPN Playoff predictor
Oct 29, 2018, 9:33 AM
|
|
The tigers are the favorite to make the CFP according to the article on ESPN: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/roadtochamp102718/legitimate-college-football-playoff-contenders-power-5-conference"The Tigers have a 91.9 percent chance to reach the playoff, the best of any team."That's cool, but I think they may have a bit of a math problem later on in the article... "Georgia has a 40.2 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 3.9 percent chance to win the conference."So they are saying that a 2-loss Georgia as a good chance (~37%) to still make the playoff. If they only have a less than 4% chance to win the SEC, how is it that they are still so likely to make the CFP having 2-losses (if they don't)? I just can't believe that. If UGA wins the SEC, I would say it is 100% that they make the CFP. ESPN says that it is 3.9% that they win, therefore the remaining chance that the are given must be based on a 2-loss scenario. Same shyt for Michigan.. "Michigan has a 40.7 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 3.9 percent chance to win the conference."
The math problem is really just statistics. It is not only that UGA could lose 2 games and make it, the formula also includes the likelihood of others that are in front of them losing, making their path easier.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4299]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2985
Joined: 10/17/02
|
Re: ESPN Playoff predictor
Oct 29, 2018, 9:39 AM
|
|
Well absolutely it includes the outcomes of other games. But if they aren't the SEC champ, then they MUST have at least 2 losses. My point is I don't believe that there is 37% chance that the dream scenario plays out for them to allow a 2-loss non-SEC champion into the CFP.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1049]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 1393
Joined: 5/3/12
|
~64% chance you're right.***
Oct 29, 2018, 9:48 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
If you say Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame all win out...
Oct 29, 2018, 9:52 AM
|
|
For simplicity's sake, that leaves one spot. If Georgia takes one more loss (in the SECCG), then Oklahoma or Michigan winning out would definitely keep Georgia out. But how likely is it that Oklahoma or Michigan win out? Not that likely. That's why there's still a decent chance Georgia would get in.
It doesn't take all that much to happen for a 2-loss Georgia to be potentially in the playoff. All you may need is for Oklahoma to lose once, and Michigan to lose once. Or maybe even Notre Dame lose just once.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
The overall probability of any 2-loss team getting in...
Oct 29, 2018, 9:54 AM
|
|
Is likely higher than you think it is.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [36207]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 21509
Joined: 10/27/03
|
Heather is Still a Dumb Yankee Troll
Oct 29, 2018, 10:01 AM
|
|
Trying to speculate that 1 Loss LSU could overtake Clemson but not using the same argument for Bama (63rd) whose SoS is far weaker than Clemson's (40th). Not only is she a transparent shill for the SEC but is too mentally deficient to think the rest of CFB won't see her poor logic. Also, check out her fivehead, I think she might be Bentley's brother.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4299]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2985
Joined: 10/17/02
|
But she makes a good sammich, though***
Oct 29, 2018, 10:40 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4753]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 1925
Joined: 9/29/15
|
Yeah, I watched the Who’s In Show
Oct 29, 2018, 10:48 AM
[ in reply to Heather is Still a Dumb Yankee Troll ] |
|
with Dinnich, Vilma and Mora.
Vilma actually made the best arguments and made more sense.
Not a hard task considering the other sources.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 8
| visibility 1,420
|
|
|
50
