Replies: 30
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All-Pro [665]
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Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 9:53 AM
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If we win out, there is at least one scenario in which I think we would likely be kept out.
Auburn beat UGA & Bama. UGA beats Auburn in their rematch game at the SEC championship. ND wins out. Wisconsin wins out.
Under that scenario, I'd guess the most likely final 4 would be: 1) UGA 2) Bama 3) ND 4) Wisconsin (Clemson sitting outside at #5).
A one loss ND & Bama both get in over us & it really is hard for me to imagine that they would keep out an undefeated power 5 team vs a team with a loss to Syracuse.
This is the only scenario in which I think we wouldn't get in. I think we have the inside track over both OU & TCU if we all win out, but Wisconsin & ND are our biggest threats.
With that said, it is hard to imagine Wisconsin beating Iowa, Michigan, & Ohio State.
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Standout [327]
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2 lose Bama would be out***
Nov 8, 2017, 9:58 AM
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All-Pro [665]
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Bama would only have one loss under this scenario***
Nov 8, 2017, 9:59 AM
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CU Medallion [65416]
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True, but in your scenario, they would not have participated
Nov 8, 2017, 11:13 AM
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in SEC Championship game, and team that beat them would wind up with THREE losses, since you have them losing to Georgia. So, in that scenario, with us as ACC Champs, we would certainly beat out Bama, at least.
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All-Conference [400]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 10:04 AM
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As much as the Committee "values" conference championships, I can't imagine that they would take two teams that did not play for their conference championships......but that's just me
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Orange Blooded [2659]
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A lot of IFs there. Hard to imagine a one loss defending NC
Nov 8, 2017, 10:04 AM
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could be left out with other one loss teams in.
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All-Pro [665]
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That's a fair point
Nov 8, 2017, 10:07 AM
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It is hard to imagine how they would leave out a one-loss Bama team to a team whose one loss is to Syracuse, but I think our strength of schedule is so much stronger than Bama's & the fact that we would have a conference championship might actually trump them.
Paul Finebaum would have a heart attack.
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110%er [6515]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 10:07 AM
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Call me crazy, but I think UGA loses to Aubie this weekend, and then loses to Bama/Aub winner.
I think ND wins out to 11-1, Wisc. will lose to Iowa, Mich, or OSU (either go 2-1 or 1-2 in those games), and TCU/OU winner will get in (as long as they win again in the BXII championship)
1)Bama/Aub 2)ND 3)Clemson 4)TCU/OU
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Varsity [207]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 11:27 AM
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Under that scenario, and an Auburn win over Bama & GA. A two loss Auburn would not be #1.
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110%er [6515]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 11:58 AM
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I know, was just making a case for each of the four ranks, regardless of order. If Aub makes it, probably:
1)ND 2)Clemson 3)OU 4)Auburn
Total carnage in the SEC could provide this, but now that I think about it, maybe it would be this:
1)ND 2)Clemson 3)Aub 4)Bama
With Bama getting in over OU, because the world would end if almighty Bama doesn't make it!
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Recruit [90]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 10:07 AM
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12-1 conference champion will go in ahead of 11-1 non-conference champion
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Legend [17285]
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Fun to speculate but don't worry! Just win baby.***
Nov 8, 2017, 10:12 AM
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Legend [17142]
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Nah. In that scenario we beat Aub and were conf champs...
Nov 8, 2017, 10:25 AM
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so Wisconsin sits at home.
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All-Pro [661]
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Only Doomsday Scenario possible is November 25th
Nov 8, 2017, 10:28 AM
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And I won't even say what it is but I have seen crazier things happen and if the stars align that day and everything goes wrong then that is doomsday period. Luckily for us the stars already aligned at the Cuse game and I don't think we are due for another one of those until 2022.
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110%er [6280]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 10:30 AM
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A one L Bama that is not SEC champ would not be in over us. I doubt ND would be in over us if both win out.
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110%er [7884]
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OK, I'll bite
Nov 8, 2017, 10:32 AM
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I would give the first part of your scenario a 5% chance of happening.
Second: 25%
Third: 5%
Forth 1%
So 0.05 x 0.25 x 0.05 x 0.01 = 0.00000625 or 0.000625% chance. I don't worry about odds that small.
Message was edited by: revmarkg®
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Orange Blooded [2351]
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I disagree
Nov 8, 2017, 10:38 AM
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This scenario pits us against Bama to get in with us at 12-1 and conf champ and Bama 11-1 with no conf champ appearance. Plus they lost to the common opponent that we beat.
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Trainer [27]
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It is also possible that you could get bit by lightning today.
Nov 8, 2017, 10:42 AM
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Just not very possible. Might as well say the chances are nil.
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Commissioner [983]
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1-loss Bama doesnt get in at that point. They would have
Nov 8, 2017, 10:44 AM
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half the quality wins of us and not even have a division title. They wont let a non-conf champ jump a Power 5 champ with the same record from another conference.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Not convinced Bama would get in ahead of us.
Nov 8, 2017, 10:48 AM
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If they lose to Auburn and don't get an opportunity to play Georgia in the SECCG where are there quality wins? Miss St and LSU?
Our resume would be better. We would get in.
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All-In [27366]
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We win out, we go. Period.
Nov 8, 2017, 11:05 AM
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Only doomsday scenario is we lose another game.
Apocalyptic, End-of-the-World, Cats and Dog sleeping together Ghost Busters doomsday scenario is it's to the dirt peckers.
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Legend [16207]
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Not even close! Us as ACC champ w only loss to Cuse...
Nov 8, 2017, 11:09 AM
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CFP committee understands we had a hick up because KB ankle and concussion. If KB is healthly and overall we are a healthy team then no doubt we will be in the CFP.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Actually not sure we have the inside track over OK
Nov 8, 2017, 11:18 AM
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They have a chance to beat #7 TCU Saturday and possibly a rematch in the Big XII title game. Add that to Ohio State and OK State (both on the road) and i think their resume might trump ours.
I think the worst scenario for us is 13-0 Bama/UGA, 13-0 Wisconsin, 12-1 OU, and 11-1 ND. ND would have several of the same wins as us (Miami, NC State, BC, and Wake). Beyond that they would have wins over USC and Michigan State (and maybe Stanford if that's worth anything) with the loss to UGA vs Auburn and VT for us and a lose to Cuse. Not entirely sure we would beat them out. It would be realllly close between Clemson, ND, and OU.
Buuut that's extremely unlikely. A lot of teams in the playoff mix are going to lose again, maybe even us.
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110%er [6515]
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Re: Actually not sure we have the inside track over OK
Nov 8, 2017, 12:02 PM
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No, shhh, don't say that, that "maybe even us" comment. Let's move on....
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110%er [7555]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 11:24 AM
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If Clemson wins out we are in......probably as a # 3 seed........Go Tigers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Orange Blooded [4673]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 11:25 AM
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Doomsday is losing Saturday.
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All-American [598]
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IF CU and ND win out We get in over the Irish...
Nov 8, 2017, 12:23 PM
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Conference champion > not champ 12-1>11-1 REIGNING NC>not NC
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Orange Blooded [2683]
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Agree
Nov 8, 2017, 12:36 PM
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They should not benefit from taking week 13 off! O31O State tried that last year and got what they deserved in Scottsdale. Hopefully the committee remembers that whipping.
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Legend [16207]
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But you do know the marketing pundits would want...
Nov 8, 2017, 12:41 PM
[ in reply to IF CU and ND win out We get in over the Irish... ] |
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...ND over Clemson for a couple of reasons...
1. ND is beloved ND. Viewership. 2. Everyone getting sick of Clemson.
Let's hope the CFP committee doesn't fall into that trap...they are humans after all which are emotional beings.
When everyone is sick of us and wants us to lose that means we have arrived...we are like Bama or the new Bama.
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CU Guru [1593]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 12:44 PM
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We win out we will have 4 wins over ranked teams and 9-10 wins over teams with winning records. We will be the ACC champs , defending NC and the runner up in 2015. No way they keep us out , NONE.
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CU Guru [1593]
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Re: Doomsday scenario for the Tigers
Nov 8, 2017, 12:47 PM
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If we Win out we will be no lower than #2. Regardless of what happens
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Replies: 30
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