|
Replies: 12
| visibility 433
|
All-In [26479]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20622
Joined: 9/2/02
|
The "herd immunity" is playing out in Virginia
Jul 24, 2020, 9:24 AM
|
|
Looking at the curves from the Virginia Department of Health website, the data is broken down into 2 groupings:
1. Northern Virginia / DC Metro
2. Rest of state
Northern Virginia was hit hard early on (high population), but new cases are flat as a pancake right now
Rest of the state (low population) is peaking now, but had no early wave
There is absolutely no reason Northern Virginia shouldn't be seeing a 2nd peak right now … unless herd immunity has kicked in (No, they are not more vigilant in mask wearing … that's BS and you know it … they are more populated and closer together, so just a few non-mask wearers could cause the spike)
Look at the data for yourself.
|
|
|
|
 |
Orange Blooded [4612]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2256
Joined: 1/12/01
|
I'm willing to bet that at least half the population has
Jul 24, 2020, 9:31 AM
|
|
some form of immunity, through T-cells or some other genetic traits. That explains how the virus peaks in certain areas as it rolls through the susceptible population, then starts winding down.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standout [347]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 1062
Joined: 7/1/19
|
Ha no. NoVA is flat now because it opened up later than
Jul 24, 2020, 9:37 AM
|
|
the rest of the rest of the state. The rest of the state is also not “low population.” Richmond, and much more so Hampton Roads region is high population. Also the rest of the state numbers are skewed by Hampton Roads, which is really spiking. Relatively, the rest of the state is doing well compared to Hampton Roads.
Saying they’ve reached hers immunity is laughable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26479]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20622
Joined: 9/2/02
|
I think you are making my point for me
Jul 24, 2020, 9:50 AM
|
|
No metro area has seen 2 spikes
Northern Virginia peaked in May with no 2nd peak
Richmond peaked in May with no 2nd peak
Virginia Beach/Norfolk didn’t have a surge until now
Why are all these early hit cities not spiking again?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standout [347]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 1062
Joined: 7/1/19
|
Because they reopened later and are still more shut down
Jul 24, 2020, 10:01 AM
|
|
than other places. Richmond and NoVa May see a peak once they really reopen. Also like the poster said below, people in these areas are much better about wearing masks and distancing. In Richmond some restaurants are shutting down again for the second time, many have still not opened dining rooms even though it’s allowed, and in general people are not out socializing like places that are more opened up. DC is still behind the rest of the state in the reopening schedule. These areas are being more proactive than reactive.
I repeat, the idea they have reached herd immunity is laughable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26479]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20622
Joined: 9/2/02
|
the entire state went to phase 3
Jul 24, 2020, 10:25 AM
|
|
On july 1
Today is July 24
The virus takes 14 days to manifest itself
So when will the 2nd wave hit ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standout [347]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 1062
Joined: 7/1/19
|
Don’t know if it will hit in one big wave since things are
Jul 24, 2020, 10:33 AM
|
|
opening more slowly. Just because the state is in phase 3 doesn’t mean everything is automatically open. People wearing masks, people still not going to restaurants and such, many restaurants not opening up even though they’re allowed. All contributes to a slower spread of the virus and a flatter curve. Could be more of gradual spread going forward. Having been in both SC and VA in the last week, the mask wearing difference is significant.
The idea that VA has reached herd immunity is laughable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20518]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11669
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: I think you are making my point for me
Jul 24, 2020, 10:32 AM
[ in reply to I think you are making my point for me ] |
|
You only achieve "herd immunity" when the bug starts running out of people to infect. Experts believe SARS-CoV-2 needs about 70% of the population to have antibodies before it starts winding down on its own. That may not ever happen because people only seem to stay immune to COVID for months, not forever.
Even if the virus was far more virulent than people realized, best estimates is that there's only been about 4 million cases in the US...which is less than 2%. Even if there were far more in reality and we'll go EXTREME best case and say it was 10x that...that's still only 40 million cases, which means the idea that 70% of the population of the USA (328.2 million people) is extremely unlikely, ANYWHERE in the USA...we're still talking only about 15%, and that's assuming the experts missed by a factor of ten. And that still gets you nowhere close to 70%, or herd immunity.
And I highly doubt we've undercounted by anything resembling a factor of ten.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [7190]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 9408
Joined: 12/18/13
|
Re: The "herd immunity" is playing out in Virginia
Jul 24, 2020, 9:45 AM
|
|
A) Northern VA (Arlington-Alexandria-Fairfax) is on a different reopening schedule than the rest of the State.
B) There is very much a culture difference when it comes it social distancing/wearing masks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standout [347]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 1062
Joined: 7/1/19
|
Correct. Richmond and DC also reopened later than the rest of the state.***
Jul 24, 2020, 10:02 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9086]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11326
Joined: 10/15/99
|
all but a few are wearing masks in stores, etc.***
Jul 24, 2020, 10:12 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [93613]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 95389
Joined: 12/25/09
|
One state or region within a state doesn't fit the profile..
Jul 24, 2020, 10:43 AM
|
|
for herd immunity. I think three factors influenced this situation. The virus is mutating and becoming less deadly and 50% of covid deaths are elderly and we are doing better at protecting the most vulnerable. Our medical professionals have learned how to cure all but the most critical cases.
Another, which grinds my gears more than anything was Fauci, Brix, Redfield and Adams telling Americans to not report to hospitals, clinics or doctors' offices until they had three major symptoms of the disease. A fever of 103.xx degrees, a hard, dry cough and body aches.
It was the first time in my 68 years that the public was instructed to allow an illness go critical before seeking medical help. With a hospital ship capable of handing 1000 patient sitting in NY harbor with only 168 patients, the Javis Center ready to go we were told that we needed to be near dead before seeking medical help.
The fact that covid patients are sought, identified and treated immediately is a major factor in the lower death rate from early treatment.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20518]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11669
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: One state or region within a state doesn't fit the profile..
Jul 24, 2020, 4:34 PM
|
|
Viruses do tend to become less lethal over time, '88...but the science says it's apparently too early for that with COVID. (I talked about this with a couple doctors the other day and they corrected a misperception I myself shared.)
We're apparently still getting just 5-6 primary forms - all split from the original strain of the virus - and they're hitting a "virgin field" where nobody has any immunity so the bug hasn't had to change very much yet. There is a newer strain that seems to be a lot more contagious than the original but its other characteristics are apparently very similar.
What usually causes the kind of mutation you're talking about is apparently when people start building immunity. Then what happens is the original strain dies out, and something that's mutated enough people's original antibodies don't work on it anymore is the one that survives to replicate another day.
Viruses sort of walk a tightrope. Too virulent and lethal and they kill off their hosts too fast and they don't get to replicate, not virulent enough and of course they don't spread.
FWIW.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 12
| visibility 433
|
|
|
50
