|
Replies: 71
| visibility 1
|
Hall of Famer [22387]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 31281
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Biden moving up in the latest polling. Now at 78% win
Sep 29, 2020, 12:20 PM
|
|
probability with the latest Pennsylvania polling showing Biden now up by 9 points.
John Heilemann has it right. Like Jimmy Carter up for re-election, the American People have decided to fire Donald Trump. They are evaluating Joe Biden as an acceptable replacement. This debate tonight will further assuage voter's concerns that Trump and his minions have pushed about Biden's mental abilities.
While both sides will claim victory, look for Biden to slowly creep up in the polls post debate as more and more people realize that he will be a fine president and the chaos and corruption of the last 4 years can be left in the dust in the rearview mirror.
|
|
|
|
 |
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: Biden moving up in the latest polling. Now at 78% win
Sep 29, 2020, 12:22 PM
|
|
That is kind of like Killary in 2016.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Do you really believe that?
Sep 29, 2020, 2:25 PM
|
|
We're not dumb.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [40656]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 23591
Joined: 1/29/05
|
His campaign wont even commit to having ears checked
Sep 29, 2020, 12:24 PM
|
|
prior to the debate. The American people know Bidens capacity for coherent thought isn't there. He wont do interviews without a teleprompter and calls lids almost half of the time for "debate" prep.
With that said, the *vocal* American voter has been and always will be voting for Biden. Trump will win the election.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Biden moving up in the latest polling. Now at 78% win
Sep 29, 2020, 12:24 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [22387]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 31281
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Here's the link for those still in denial.
Sep 29, 2020, 12:32 PM
|
|
You can see probability, polling by date, swing state probabilities and polling etc. The probability of Biden winning Pennsylvania has gone up again. For those of you hoping that Trump can take Nevada with his "latino" outreach may want to come down off the ledge. The latest Fox New Poll shows Biden up by 11.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ 2020 Election Forecast Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
People who think 79% chance to win means
Sep 29, 2020, 12:44 PM
|
|
that the site was "wrong" doesn't understand probability. If they said 100% chance for Clinton, they would have been wrong.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [90819]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 45503
Joined: 10/18/09
|
Cheating-Lying Hillary was Suppose to win hands down
Sep 29, 2020, 12:49 PM
|
|
but the Deplorable votes put their “hands down“ on the ballot where it said TRuMP!
Ha..and DEMS haven’t gotten over that in last 45 months of screaming & yelling and making up fake impeachment’s.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
Well, yes that's obviously true.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:00 PM
|
|
That's a credit to the President, not a knock against FiveThirtyEight.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
In fact, to say the President "beat the odds"
Sep 29, 2020, 2:02 PM
|
|
is and admission saying that the "oddsmakers" were right. If the oddsmakers were wrong, then the President did not "beat the odds".
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Why is this hard for you to grasp?
Sep 29, 2020, 2:53 PM
[ in reply to What ever makes you feel better ] |
|
Really, how simple can it be explained?
They gave Hillary a 79 percent chance to win. Not 100. Which means they gave Trump a 21 percent chance of winning. And that hit.
I feel like I need to start making sports bets with you. Or at least observe you in a casino while you argue with the dealer when you lose.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [22387]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 31281
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 over Clinton.
Sep 29, 2020, 12:56 PM
[ in reply to People who think 79% chance to win means ] |
|
Gary Johnson and Jill Stein received 196,656 votes for president in Pennsylvania in 2016.
Biden is up by an average of almost 10 points in Pennsylvania.
Those who don't understand probability also don't understand how this race is nothing like 2016.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
In the case of 2016, and what some people are projecting
Sep 29, 2020, 2:12 PM
[ in reply to People who think 79% chance to win means ] |
|
to happen this year, it is that the President outperformed available polling data in a few states on Election Day. It's as simple as that. The statistical models can only spit out figures from the data that is input.
The reasons why the President outpeformed that polling is very complex, and a very interesting discussion. But I don't see why people would cast aspersions at sites that try to predict this stuff, when they are just using what is available to use.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: LOL fivethirtyeight
Sep 29, 2020, 12:49 PM
[ in reply to LOL fivethirtyeight ] |
|
Dang his chances are worst than Killary. Not good.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
People seem confused by the concept of probabilities.
Sep 29, 2020, 1:35 PM
[ in reply to LOL fivethirtyeight ] |
|
You'd think 2016 would be a helpful example of the idea that 79% is different from 100%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: People seem confused by the concept of probabilities.
Sep 29, 2020, 1:41 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: People seem confused by the concept of probabilities.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:12 PM
|
|
Sure thing. Probabilities are calculated by determining the total number of possible outcomes and seeing how many of those outcomes result in a win for one side or the other.
In the case of presidential elections, those outcomes are determined by way of the most recent polls. The poll results, in light of their respective sample sizes, standard deviations, and margins of error, are used to create election simulations. Those simulations are used as the possible outcomes. When they say that Hillary is 76% likely to win, they mean that out of every 100 simulations, 76 resulted in a Hillary win.
I hereby certify I did not copy and paste this explanation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: People seem confused by the concept of probabilities.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:17 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: People seem confused by the concept of probabilities.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:21 PM
|
|
When it comes to sample sizes, there's just one rule: The larger, the better. The point of a poll is to extrapolate information from smaller group A (the polled people) to larger group B (the actual voters in November). The larger group A is, the better its predictive ability. Obviously if you were to poll every actual voter, your poll results would be as good as possible. But that's not possible. The actual, smaller sample size creates a larger margin of error. So to answer your question, the best way to determine proper sample size is to get as large a group as possible within the time you have to conduct the poll.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
And the statistical models would obviously be highly
Sep 29, 2020, 2:34 PM
|
|
influenced by the margins of error, which are determined by the sample size. So if the polls in Michigan, let's say, had 10 times the number of people polled, then the polls would have been more accurate, and the statistical probability of Trump winning the state would have been higher.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: And the statistical models would obviously be highly
Sep 29, 2020, 2:40 PM
|
|
Correct. Bear in mind, however, that Trump's win was by a margin of 0.23%, which is going to be well within the margin of error for any poll.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: And the statistical models would obviously be highly
Sep 29, 2020, 2:43 PM
|
|
Please explain how it's been proven that many of the polls are poorly designed and oversample Dems. Please no copying and pasting.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
The potential issues with the polls themselves
Sep 29, 2020, 2:44 PM
[ in reply to Re: And the statistical models would obviously be highly ] |
|
is a completely different discussion. Not saying it's not a worthy topic...it's just a completely different topic from this one.
For a calculation of how sample size translates to margin of error, I would suggest a statistics textbook. I certainly do not have any motivation to demonstrate such a calculation, even if I remembered how.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155876]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65807
Joined: 5/6/13
|
C'mon man, I want a confidence interval refresher.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:51 PM
|
|
Boooo!
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
It's all about p < 0.01***
Sep 29, 2020, 2:54 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: It's all about p < 0.01***
Sep 29, 2020, 2:55 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
I'm the sick one who used to enjoy that stuff...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:55 PM
[ in reply to It's all about p < 0.01*** ] |
|
I'd do it for fun. Don't have time these days.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
He answered you, and quietly worked you over in this thread.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:47 PM
[ in reply to Re: And the statistical models would obviously be highly ] |
|
But we can just simply go back to the fact that you didn't the probabilities to start.
People hate polling when it doesn't say what they like, but it's historically quiet accurate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
*quite accurate. Fat thumbs.***
Sep 29, 2020, 2:47 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: *quite accurate. Fat thumbs.***
Sep 29, 2020, 2:50 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:51 PM
|
|
You know, like they taught us in 4th grade.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:52 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
This thread is highly embarrassing for you.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:55 PM
|
|
Especially your reply to Prod. It's a simple matter of understanding probabilities.
Let me ask you this. If Vegas, who is loaded with millionaires who make money off sports bets, give, say, the Ravens a 75 percent chance to beat the Browns, and the Browns win, are you going to write Vegas off as not knowing what they're doing?
Because they have more sports cars and mansions than you do.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: This thread is highly embarrassing for you.
Sep 29, 2020, 2:57 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
You know what those cops would say?
Sep 29, 2020, 3:00 PM
|
|
That you're 99 percent a fool for not understanding probabilities.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: You know what those cops would say?
Sep 29, 2020, 3:05 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
He's definitely more likeable.
Sep 29, 2020, 3:07 PM
|
|
And a lot more patient as well. How many people would take their time to politely explain to a grown man how probabilities work, which is a pretty standard 4th grade lesson?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:57 PM
[ in reply to Re: At least I know how to read probabilities... ] |
|
My original point, which you responded to, was that people seem confused about Hillary losing after being projected 79% (or whatever number) likely to win. My point was that 79% is not 100%, and that people don't seem to understand probability.
You then asked me to explain it, which I did. Now you want to change the question, and we can speculate about why you'd do that but I've explained enough to assist anyone who didn't understand why Trump could win after being 79% likely to lose.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:59 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Oh, so still not 100 percent?
Sep 29, 2020, 3:01 PM
|
|
Let us know when you figure out how this works.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 3:07 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Only HuffPo was north of 95%.
Sep 29, 2020, 3:22 PM
|
|
That's hardly "most" of the ones you listed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Only HuffPo was north of 95%.
Sep 29, 2020, 3:33 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26968]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 44823
Joined: 7/6/10
|
For back-to-back wins with 1 in 10 odds,
Sep 30, 2020, 7:32 AM
|
|
it would be 1 in 100. For winning two elections with 2 in 10 odds, it would 4 in 100.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Yeah that figures
Sep 29, 2020, 3:24 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [31460]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 10186
Joined: 1/28/15
|
Re: Yeah that figures
Sep 29, 2020, 3:31 PM
|
|
I’m not sure why you’d take umbrage with a literally world famous and universally respected statistician like Nate Silver
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: Yeah that figures
Sep 29, 2020, 3:42 PM
[ in reply to Yeah that figures ] |
|
Your original criticism was "LOL fivethirtyeight," and pointing out that it had Hillary at 79%.
This whole subthread was about why 79% does not mean Hillary is 100% likely win. Which is a direct response to your criticism.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: At least I know how to read probabilities...
Sep 29, 2020, 3:12 PM
[ in reply to Re: At least I know how to read probabilities... ] |
|
The problem with polling these days they always know who they are targeting to give you the poll. I just had one try to get me to answers a polling question from a young women. I really felt sorry for her so I did not give her the routine. She was lucky today. I did not answer any of her question either. I think they should outlaw them straight up but I guess some people need a useless job.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
"LOL I will reject any polling...
Sep 29, 2020, 2:21 PM
[ in reply to LOL fivethirtyeight ] |
|
That doesn't say what I want it to."
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [81060]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 56134
Joined: 9/13/04
|
Better move my 401K to all bonds***
Sep 29, 2020, 12:57 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: Better move my 401K to all bonds***
Sep 29, 2020, 1:20 PM
|
|
If I were you go with the high risk Asian fund.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [47750]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30413
Joined: 11/15/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [83075]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 80143
Joined: 11/29/99
|
Interest rates will rise only when growth is above 3%
Sep 29, 2020, 2:44 PM
|
|
for several quarters in a row. That won’t happen for a long time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oculus Spirit [83075]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 80143
Joined: 11/29/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lot o points [155876]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65807
Joined: 5/6/13
|
Let's be honest here......
Sep 29, 2020, 3:34 PM
|
|
When someone is in Valencia Lakes, I think we all know that their portfolio values require scientific notation to be easily discussed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [26501]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 20642
Joined: 9/2/02
|
Truck full of ballots just arrived at philly
Sep 29, 2020, 1:08 PM
|
|
DNC headquarters
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [57077]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 39680
Joined: 11/12/04
|
Just one?***
Sep 29, 2020, 1:17 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20540]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11683
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: Biden moving up in the latest polling. Now at 78% win
Sep 29, 2020, 1:42 PM
|
|
I'm not even going to watch. There's no point, it'll just do things to my stomach.
I'm just praying Biden doesn't step on that metaphorical rake I keep talking about.
He gets through tonight, he's through the biggest hurdle left, and your prognostication likely comes true.
Trump is such a belligerent dolt that Biden will be forgiven a few of his usual gaffes...which is likely fortunate. But if he administers that rake to his own face...well.
The public will allow Biden a few stumbles...and Trump did him a service by lowering the bar so effectively. But if Biden does indeed look like a dementia patient that's the thing that will kill him.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: Biden moving up in the latest polling. Now at 78% win
Sep 29, 2020, 2:58 PM
|
|
The rake is coming. You can count on it. We are not going to miss it. Biden might do ok but odds are not in his favor.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [44039]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 32955
Joined: 2/22/03
|
Do you honestly put much faith in these polls?
Sep 29, 2020, 2:15 PM
|
|
You do remember 2016, right?
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 84%
Posts: 4333
Joined: 9/10/18
|
Re: Do you honestly put much faith in these polls?
Sep 29, 2020, 2:56 PM
|
|
Now that right there is impressive. A link to the same board.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [34107]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33610
Joined: 9/13/99
|
Re: Do you honestly put much faith in these polls?
Sep 29, 2020, 3:09 PM
|
|
Sending him to the part of the thread where the issue was already addressed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [42151]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38236
Joined: 11/30/98
|
As already addressed in this thread.
Sep 29, 2020, 3:08 PM
[ in reply to Do you honestly put much faith in these polls? ] |
|
1. We're talking probabilities. The polls aren't saying anyone has a 100 percent chance to win. It's like predicting the weather. There may still be a 30 percent chance of rain. No one is saying guaranteed sunshine.
2. In predicting the overall popular vote, the 2016 polls were dead-on.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [20540]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11683
Joined: 10/15/02
|
Re: As already addressed in this thread.
Sep 29, 2020, 4:00 PM
|
|
Another thing to consider is that "winding path to victory" model Nate cooked up. It's very good and it shows Trump's problem. If he takes all the states he's currently favored to win - with the most likely being Wyoming - where Trump's up by 40! - to Georgia, where Trump's currently about 1.5 points up he'd still need Ohio (Biden +0.5), North Carolina (Biden +0.5), Florida (Biden +1.5), Arizona (Biden +2), and Pennsylvania (Biden +5) to win. If Trump loses any of those states, it's over, whereas Biden needs to win just one of them to cross the finish line, as long as he wins all the states he's heavily favored to win from Washington DC (Biden +85!) to Wisconsin (Biden +6).
Trump's still got some chance but he's gotta turn this around in a hurry...and if Biden has a solid debate, Trump is well and truly behind the 8-ball.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 71
| visibility 1
|
|
|
50
