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YOUR BALANCE
Week 12 Prodigal Football Ratings
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Week 12 Prodigal Football Ratings


Nov 19, 2018, 11:51 AM

It's the Clemson Tigers back on top for the second week this season, taking advantage of Alabama's drop in schedule strength playing their FCS opponent. Given that both teams are playing about equal opponents (per my ratings), and both are at home, I would expect these two to stay in this order going into conference championship week, assuming they both win against their rival, and there isn't a crazy difference in scoring margin in the two games.

Certainly, the thing you'll notice is the first thing I noticed when the numbers were run this week. Hello, SEC East. Missouri made one of the biggest jumps I think I've ever seen this late in the season. Kentucky also surged back. The SEC went 8-0 in their easy out-of-conference slate this week, and Vandy also beat Ole Miss to make the SEC East 8-5 against the SEC West. I did not anticipate those events creating such a huge ripple in my ratings. But there you have it. I'm posting more about this in one of the replies to this post, because it's very interesting. Here's the Top 25:

Rank
Pvs
Team
W-L
PDiff
SOS
12Clemson11-0226
21Alabama11-0144
34Notre Dame11-01219
43Georgia10-189
55Michigan10-1625
66Oklahoma10-1942
77UCF10-0495
88LSU9-22821
99Ohio St.10-11380
103Washington St.10-110101
1114Boise St.9-21860
1223Kentucky8-34912
1311Penn St.8-32423
1430Missouri7-4342
1519Mississippi St.7-4167
1615Florida8-32329
1718Fresno St.9-2596
1829Texas A&M7-4383
1910West Virginia8-21176
2012Cincinnati9-21578
2124Utah8-33047
2216Utah St.10-13130
2321Appalachian St.8-27109
2428Texas8-35035
2527South Carolina6-5515


Dropped out: #17 Army, #20 Iowa St., #22 Syracuse, #25 Buffalo


ACC/SEC Teams:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
4. Georgia
8. LSU
12. Kentucky
14. Missouri
16. Florida
18. Texas A&M
25. South Carolina
26. Auburn
27. Syracuse
30. Pittsburgh
32. Duke
33. NC State
42. Boston College
44. Georgia Tech
46. Miami
47. Virginia
49. Vanderbilt
55. Tennessee
70. Florida St.
73. Ole Miss
78. Wake Forest
88. Virginia Tech
104. North Carolina
105. Arkansas
109. Louisville

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Just noticed I missed 15. Miss St. down there in that


Nov 19, 2018, 11:52 AM

list of ACC/SEC teams.

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LOL @ SC at 25


Nov 19, 2018, 11:54 AM

LUTZ

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What was SC's strength of schedule last week? -1 ??


Nov 19, 2018, 11:56 AM

Given who they just played and the are 5 at SOS??

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It was #1 pretty much all year before this week.***


Nov 19, 2018, 12:04 PM



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I guess math REALLY doesn't lie.


Nov 19, 2018, 12:01 PM

Going ahead and chalking up that 5th loss for the coots, I mean.

ringofhonor-rhtig.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


So, about this SEC dominance in 2018.


Nov 19, 2018, 12:03 PM

No doubt, dominance is the right word to use. The conference is 46-5 in their out-of-conference games, which is over a 90% win percentage. That'd be the highest of any conference in the 7 years I've been doing this. Of course, bowl season hasn't happened yet, so you'd expect that number to fall some.

HOWEVAH (Stephen A. Smith voice), the SEC's out-of-conference schedule strength this season is the worst I've seen in these 7 years, by a Power 5 conference. It might be the worst by any conference. I could tell going into the season it had the potential to be weak, because they only scheduled 13 Power 5 teams, and had an extra FCS game (Florida's) to give 15 total for the conference. But it's shocking to see the numbers this bad. Several of the SEC West's main OOC opponents turned out to be duds: Kansas St., Texas Tech, Miami, and the kingpin of the duds, Louisville. The SEC East has this coming week remaining to boost them some, but scheduled weakly in general.

That said, the lack of bad losses is really striking. These teams have taken care of business. To wit: whom has the SEC East beaten, outside of their division? Well, there's a win against LSU, two against Mississippi St., and two against Auburn. Out-of-conference, there are really no wins of note...the best might be Missouri beating Purdue. Not exactly a bunch of hallmarks. But to whom have they lost? The SEC East has only lost 7 games outside of their division: 2 to Alabama, 2 to Texas A&M, 1 each to LSU, Notre Dame, and West Virginia. Zero bad losses.

As a result, there is a division-level dominance by the East, not seen in my ratings since the SEC West went 44-6 outside their division in 2015. And there's a conference-level dominance that exceeds anything I've measured. But, with the schedule so weak, what does it mean? Maybe we'll wait for bowl season, when the conference actually "plays somebody".

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These numbers are crazy...


Nov 19, 2018, 12:14 PM

Out of 125 conference teams (not counting independents), the SEC has 14 of the top 16, in in-conference schedule strength. Well, the reason for that is because they won pretty much all their OOC games!

Out of all 130 teams, the SEC has 8 teams ranked 110th or worse in out-of-conference schedule strength:

110. Ole Miss
113. Alabama
118. South Carolina
119. Georgia
120. Arkansas
121. Tennessee
126. Kentucky
130. Florida

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(124 conference teams; there are 6 independents)***


Nov 19, 2018, 12:14 PM



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The conference will have 11 bowl-eligible teams...


Nov 19, 2018, 12:27 PM [ in reply to So, about this SEC dominance in 2018. ]

With the outside chance of 12, if Ole Miss were to upset Miss St. in the Egg Bowl.

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Difference between my ratings and the Coaches' Poll


Nov 19, 2018, 12:22 PM

for SEC teams:


(my rating on the left)...a positive differential means my ratings rated them higher than the Coaches' Poll

2. Alabama: -1
4. Georgia: +1
8. LSU: 0
12. Kentucky: +6
14. Missouri: +17
15. Mississippi St.: +5
16. Florida: -3
18. Texas A&M: +10
25. South Carolina: +19
26. Auburn: +7

It's not so bad if you think about it this way...all these Top 26 in my ratings, did get put in the Top 25 by at least one coach.

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COOT***


Nov 19, 2018, 12:49 PM



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Coot***


Nov 19, 2018, 1:02 PM



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Re: Week 12 Prodigal Football Ratings***


Nov 19, 2018, 1:03 PM





2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

man i really dig these rankings....


Nov 19, 2018, 1:14 PM

let me suggest you try them again on adderall and xanax. REALLY GET INTO THE NUMBERS MAN! you can do better. i think you just need that extra push that only chemicals can give you. stay up late, make more spread sheets. get a leather jacket with a calculator in one pocket and poppers and a c ring in the other pocket. let go. let your mind wander. then come on back and repost. i think, regardless of the rankings, you'll be in a better place and really have these teams in the correct order. or not.



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LOL @ Usuc SOS!


Nov 19, 2018, 6:47 PM

How do you even come up with that?

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