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All-In [26968]
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Week 12 Prodigal Football Ratings
Nov 19, 2018, 11:51 AM
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It's the Clemson Tigers back on top for the second week this season, taking advantage of Alabama's drop in schedule strength playing their FCS opponent. Given that both teams are playing about equal opponents (per my ratings), and both are at home, I would expect these two to stay in this order going into conference championship week, assuming they both win against their rival, and there isn't a crazy difference in scoring margin in the two games.
Certainly, the thing you'll notice is the first thing I noticed when the numbers were run this week. Hello, SEC East. Missouri made one of the biggest jumps I think I've ever seen this late in the season. Kentucky also surged back. The SEC went 8-0 in their easy out-of-conference slate this week, and Vandy also beat Ole Miss to make the SEC East 8-5 against the SEC West. I did not anticipate those events creating such a huge ripple in my ratings. But there you have it. I'm posting more about this in one of the replies to this post, because it's very interesting. Here's the Top 25:
Rank | Pvs | Team | W-L | PDiff | SOS |
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1 | 2 | Clemson | 11-0 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 1 | Alabama | 11-0 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 4 | Notre Dame | 11-0 | 12 | 19 | 4 | 3 | Georgia | 10-1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 5 | Michigan | 10-1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 6 | Oklahoma | 10-1 | 9 | 42 | 7 | 7 | UCF | 10-0 | 4 | 95 | 8 | 8 | LSU | 9-2 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 9 | Ohio St. | 10-1 | 13 | 80 | 10 | 3 | Washington St. | 10-1 | 10 | 101 | 11 | 14 | Boise St. | 9-2 | 18 | 60 | 12 | 23 | Kentucky | 8-3 | 49 | 12 | 13 | 11 | Penn St. | 8-3 | 24 | 23 | 14 | 30 | Missouri | 7-4 | 34 | 2 | 15 | 19 | Mississippi St. | 7-4 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 15 | Florida | 8-3 | 23 | 29 | 17 | 18 | Fresno St. | 9-2 | 5 | 96 | 18 | 29 | Texas A&M | 7-4 | 38 | 3 | 19 | 10 | West Virginia | 8-2 | 11 | 76 | 20 | 12 | Cincinnati | 9-2 | 15 | 78 | 21 | 24 | Utah | 8-3 | 30 | 47 | 22 | 16 | Utah St. | 10-1 | 3 | 130 | 23 | 21 | Appalachian St. | 8-2 | 7 | 109 | 24 | 28 | Texas | 8-3 | 50 | 35 | 25 | 27 | South Carolina | 6-5 | 51 | 5 |
Dropped out: #17 Army, #20 Iowa St., #22 Syracuse, #25 Buffalo
ACC/SEC Teams:
1. Clemson 2. Alabama 4. Georgia 8. LSU 12. Kentucky 14. Missouri 16. Florida 18. Texas A&M 25. South Carolina 26. Auburn 27. Syracuse 30. Pittsburgh 32. Duke 33. NC State 42. Boston College 44. Georgia Tech 46. Miami 47. Virginia 49. Vanderbilt 55. Tennessee 70. Florida St. 73. Ole Miss 78. Wake Forest 88. Virginia Tech 104. North Carolina 105. Arkansas 109. Louisville
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All-In [26968]
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Just noticed I missed 15. Miss St. down there in that
Nov 19, 2018, 11:52 AM
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list of ACC/SEC teams.
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Hall of Famer [20535]
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LOL @ SC at 25
Nov 19, 2018, 11:54 AM
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LUTZ
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Hall of Famer [20535]
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What was SC's strength of schedule last week? -1 ??
Nov 19, 2018, 11:56 AM
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Given who they just played and the are 5 at SOS??
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All-In [26968]
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It was #1 pretty much all year before this week.***
Nov 19, 2018, 12:04 PM
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Heisman Winner [135096]
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I guess math REALLY doesn't lie.
Nov 19, 2018, 12:01 PM
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Going ahead and chalking up that 5th loss for the coots, I mean.
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All-In [26968]
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So, about this SEC dominance in 2018.
Nov 19, 2018, 12:03 PM
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No doubt, dominance is the right word to use. The conference is 46-5 in their out-of-conference games, which is over a 90% win percentage. That'd be the highest of any conference in the 7 years I've been doing this. Of course, bowl season hasn't happened yet, so you'd expect that number to fall some.
HOWEVAH (Stephen A. Smith voice), the SEC's out-of-conference schedule strength this season is the worst I've seen in these 7 years, by a Power 5 conference. It might be the worst by any conference. I could tell going into the season it had the potential to be weak, because they only scheduled 13 Power 5 teams, and had an extra FCS game (Florida's) to give 15 total for the conference. But it's shocking to see the numbers this bad. Several of the SEC West's main OOC opponents turned out to be duds: Kansas St., Texas Tech, Miami, and the kingpin of the duds, Louisville. The SEC East has this coming week remaining to boost them some, but scheduled weakly in general.
That said, the lack of bad losses is really striking. These teams have taken care of business. To wit: whom has the SEC East beaten, outside of their division? Well, there's a win against LSU, two against Mississippi St., and two against Auburn. Out-of-conference, there are really no wins of note...the best might be Missouri beating Purdue. Not exactly a bunch of hallmarks. But to whom have they lost? The SEC East has only lost 7 games outside of their division: 2 to Alabama, 2 to Texas A&M, 1 each to LSU, Notre Dame, and West Virginia. Zero bad losses.
As a result, there is a division-level dominance by the East, not seen in my ratings since the SEC West went 44-6 outside their division in 2015. And there's a conference-level dominance that exceeds anything I've measured. But, with the schedule so weak, what does it mean? Maybe we'll wait for bowl season, when the conference actually "plays somebody".
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All-In [26968]
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These numbers are crazy...
Nov 19, 2018, 12:14 PM
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Out of 125 conference teams (not counting independents), the SEC has 14 of the top 16, in in-conference schedule strength. Well, the reason for that is because they won pretty much all their OOC games!
Out of all 130 teams, the SEC has 8 teams ranked 110th or worse in out-of-conference schedule strength:
110. Ole Miss 113. Alabama 118. South Carolina 119. Georgia 120. Arkansas 121. Tennessee 126. Kentucky 130. Florida
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All-In [26968]
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(124 conference teams; there are 6 independents)***
Nov 19, 2018, 12:14 PM
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All-In [26968]
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The conference will have 11 bowl-eligible teams...
Nov 19, 2018, 12:27 PM
[ in reply to So, about this SEC dominance in 2018. ] |
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With the outside chance of 12, if Ole Miss were to upset Miss St. in the Egg Bowl.
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All-In [26968]
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Difference between my ratings and the Coaches' Poll
Nov 19, 2018, 12:22 PM
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for SEC teams:
(my rating on the left)...a positive differential means my ratings rated them higher than the Coaches' Poll
2. Alabama: -1 4. Georgia: +1 8. LSU: 0 12. Kentucky: +6 14. Missouri: +17 15. Mississippi St.: +5 16. Florida: -3 18. Texas A&M: +10 25. South Carolina: +19 26. Auburn: +7
It's not so bad if you think about it this way...all these Top 26 in my ratings, did get put in the Top 25 by at least one coach.
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All-In [43077]
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COOT***
Nov 19, 2018, 12:49 PM
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Hall of Famer [23689]
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Coot***
Nov 19, 2018, 1:02 PM
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Hall of Famer [22730]
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Re: Week 12 Prodigal Football Ratings***
Nov 19, 2018, 1:03 PM
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Orange Blooded [3861]
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man i really dig these rankings....
Nov 19, 2018, 1:14 PM
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let me suggest you try them again on adderall and xanax. REALLY GET INTO THE NUMBERS MAN! you can do better. i think you just need that extra push that only chemicals can give you. stay up late, make more spread sheets. get a leather jacket with a calculator in one pocket and poppers and a c ring in the other pocket. let go. let your mind wander. then come on back and repost. i think, regardless of the rankings, you'll be in a better place and really have these teams in the correct order. or not.
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Heisman Winner [118858]
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LOL @ Usuc SOS!
Nov 19, 2018, 6:47 PM
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How do you even come up with that?
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Replies: 15
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