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All-TigerNet [11934]
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Offering 2-Star recruits ... too much of a gamble?
Jul 12, 2012, 9:44 AM
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Is it a gamble offering a kid who is lightly regarded?
Of course. But, the gamble can pay off if the staff has the skill to spot potential and to develop it once the kid arrives.
All things being equal, you'd love to fill every class with nothing but 4 and 5-star recruits like Texas and Southern Cal, etc.
Even though they don't always pan out, certainly the chances are greater that a super-star recruit will end up helping you, than one who is not highly regarded.
With the way our recruiting has gone the last few years, it's difficult to imagine that as recently as 2004, our recruiting class contained 19 recruits with a 2-star rating according to Rivals (not one or two ... but 19!!) And this class was brought in on the heels of a very strong finish to the 2003 season that saw us demolish SCAR 63-17 and then beat Tennessee in Atlanta.
Take a look at the 2004 class ...
http://rivals.yahoo.com/clemson/football/recruiting/commitments/2004/clemson-1
Now, obviously, taking on 19 "projects" is a little excessive and wouldn't be something a staff would want to do every year. That was a very strange recruiting class, and in retrospect, only 4 of that group ended up being heavy contributors.
In subsequent years, other than kickers, we've usually only signed 2-3 Rivals 2-star prospects in a given year.
Notable 2-star Clemson recruits (Rivals) from 2004 forward who ended up being starters include:
Rashaad Jackson
Aaron Kelly
Jock McKissic
Phillip Merling
Tyler Grisham
Kavell Conner
Michael Palmer
Andre Branch
Coty Sensabaugh
Adam Humphries
During this same period there were over a dozen 2-star guys who never contributed.
PS: No kickers or other specialists are in these calculations.
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110%er [7488]
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lot of coaching controversy during the season- it looked
Jul 12, 2012, 9:49 AM
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like CTB was going to be gone until the last 4 game run--- recruiting damgage had been done
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110%er [7488]
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2009 class suffered for similar reason-- coaching turmoil/
Jul 12, 2012, 9:54 AM
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switch--- there is a price to pay for coaches on the hot seat/coaching changes-- it can really put a dent in a program several years later. We were very fortunate the effects of 2009 were minimized last year by some players playing beyond their years-- hopefully, we can get through this year as well in a similar fashion.
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All-TigerNet [11934]
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Good observations ...***
Jul 12, 2012, 10:31 AM
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Athletic Dir [872]
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Lots of other variables you have to consider also
Jul 12, 2012, 9:50 AM
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like what the team needs are, and to fit into the overall scheme. You may have a guy that plays defense that has ridiculous speed and can pass rush, but is lacking game knowledge, so recruiting services rank him a two star. It's tough to teach speed and other God given abilities, but the upside is there under the right coaching.
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All-TigerNet [14921]
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I have a feeling that the coaches pay much less attention
Jul 12, 2012, 10:04 AM
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to a star ranking of a guy. Generally if they like what the kid does they're going to offer a scholarship. It doesn't matter if he's a Five-Star or a Two-Star.
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Hall of Famer [24764]
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See Maverick Morris... just to give a recent example.***
Jul 12, 2012, 10:06 AM
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Expert [1102]
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Coaches have their own evaluation system
Jul 12, 2012, 10:22 AM
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These scouting services are great at identifying talent from winning programs and get PR from local papers. Sometimes kids in rural areas, small schools, took up the game their junior year of HS, are not going to get the media or rankings. That is where their own camps, scouting, and review of film takes precedent over rankings. If it was just rankings, Clemson would win a lot more.
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All-TigerNet [11934]
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True enough ... and also
Jul 12, 2012, 10:34 AM
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... a 4 or 5-star guy is usually expected to help almost immediately, while a 2-star guy can be "groomed" ...
The super-star may not (probably won't) even be on campus for 4 full years.
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Member [22]
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Re: Coaches have their own evaluation system
Jul 12, 2012, 12:18 PM
[ in reply to Coaches have their own evaluation system ] |
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That's a very good observation. I don't really pay attention to the number of stars that a player has. I will look at who the offers come from though. For example, if a player is a 2 star but has offers from us, East Carolina, and MTSU I don't get too excited. But if he has offers from us, EC, MTSU, NC State, NC, Virginia Tech, and other large D1 schools that is a very good sign. I just made this up in my head and don't have any specific prospect in mind just fyi.
Now on the other side of the spectrum, as soon as a player gets an offer from a "big school" it seems like there is a star added to their ranking automatically. Ala, Ohio State, Fla, and USC as examples.
Just trust the coaches and let them decide.
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Orange Blooded [4896]
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It is not risky when our coaches do it for the right reasons
Jul 12, 2012, 10:36 AM
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Your analysis and what has happened with the more recent classes (fewer 2 star or less recruits but more success with them) tells me that our coaches (and Dabo in particular) have been much better than the average coach (and Rivals) at judging talent and potential.
Based on past experience I do not get as nervous when I hear that we have a 2 star or lower player. History has shown that our coaches know something that Rivals doesn't - and/or have the ability to develop those players better than other schools.
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CU Medallion [64589]
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Yes it is risky...
Jul 12, 2012, 11:06 AM
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because based on the limited number of scholarships available, signing players who are not likely to contribute will ultimately have an adverse effect on debth at certain positions, or they'll leave school for lack of playing time and hurt your APR score.
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110%er [5436]
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Re: Yes it is risky...
Jul 12, 2012, 12:16 PM
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If all you want ti do is sign 4 and 5 stars then UF and FSU should not have lost a game in 10 years.
Look at UF's OL all 4 and 5 stars and they suck
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CU Medallion [64589]
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To be sucessful....
Jul 12, 2012, 12:58 PM
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takes a combination of talent, skill and coaching. I have never been a big fan of star rankings. I have always felt that, regardless of the assessment of some for profit recruiting service, coaches recruit based on need and potential, and then develop the talent to fit a particular scheme or system. Although there are exceptions, the lower classified players rarely achieve any notable success at the college level or go on to play in the NFL. Likewise, some of the higher rated prospect, for various reasons, fail live-up to their potential. In either case, I think it is fair to say that rolling the dice on a two star prospect is a bigger risk and gamble than rolling the dice on a four star prospect.
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110%er [5436]
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Re: To be sucessful....
Jul 12, 2012, 1:22 PM
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You just said it was risky signing 2 stars
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CU Medallion [64589]
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and it is....
Jul 12, 2012, 2:00 PM
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but I also said that are exceptions.
I think it is fair to say that rolling the dice on a two star prospect is a bigger risk and gamble than rolling the dice on a four star prospect.
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Starter [362]
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Actual Results Say Otherwise
Jul 12, 2012, 1:33 PM
[ in reply to Yes it is risky... ] |
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I tracked our 2006, 2007 and 2008 recruiting classes. Using ESPN's star system, the following %s of each were drafted:
5 stars: 100%
4 stars: 31%
3 stars: 12%
0-2 stars: 13%
There doesn't seem to be any fall-off between 3 stars and less. If you had the luxury of only taking 4 and 5 stars that would be great but there are not enough of those players to go around.
The main reason our 0-2 stars have fared as well as the 3 stars is that our coaches have done a good job finding gems like Michael Palmer, Coty Sensabaugh and Chris Hairston.
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CU Medallion [58411]
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If we were offering a lot of 2-star guys and not many 4 and
Jul 12, 2012, 10:39 AM
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5-star guys, then we'd have reason to be concerned. Since we are getting a lot of 4 and 5 star guys, if our coaches see a few guys they like who are flying under the radar, then it's no problem.
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CU Guru [1878]
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Don't forget Barry Richardson from the 2004 class was 2 star***
Jul 12, 2012, 11:59 AM
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All-TigerNet [11934]
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Very true ... but the REALLY telling stat from 2004 is ...
Jul 12, 2012, 12:10 PM
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... the really telling stat from 2004 is that except for Barry Richardson, every one of the OL we brought in failed to contribute during their careers. Now THAT is a killer!
Personally, I was thinking that Barry was sort of an exception. I can't remember the specifics, but didn't he graduate a year early and miss out on getting a valid rating by the services?
Everyone always considered him much better than a 2-star, even during recruiting.
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110%er [5436]
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Re: Very true ... but the REALLY telling stat from 2004 is ...
Jul 12, 2012, 12:20 PM
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Lambert was a 4 star and wouldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat in the middle of hartwell
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All-TigerNet [11435]
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Phillip Merling was a 2 star
Jul 12, 2012, 1:40 PM
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and has had a good NFL career. Aaron Kelly is ACC leader in catches. Barry Richardson was really a 4 star but graduated early.
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