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Editor [∞]
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BKB Update: NCAA tournament projection for Clemson
Jan 23, 2016, 9:33 AM
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All-TigerNet [10941]
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Re: BKB Update: NCAA tournament projection for Clemson
Jan 23, 2016, 10:17 AM
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Alright! Beat Pitt! Lets fill the Well. Go Tigers!
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Orange Blooded [2906]
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Ditto...1 game at a time***
Jan 23, 2016, 10:34 AM
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Commissioner [923]
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All-In [48078]
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Have to beat Pitt.**
Jan 23, 2016, 10:23 AM
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nm
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Freshman [2]
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Re: Have to beat Pitt.**
Jan 23, 2016, 2:28 PM
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We will absolutely OWN the NIT!!
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Orange Blooded [4075]
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??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 3:22 PM
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Will probably make "The Dance"
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Legend [16761]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 4:58 PM
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http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Clemson.html
As of today 21-9 is the cutoff to have any chance at the dance (regardless of what Joe Lunardi is presently saying) -barring a miracle run in the ACC tournament.
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Legend [19352]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 5:08 PM
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Lol
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Legend [16761]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 5:16 PM
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This sh*t again. Really? I posted a link that runs hard and fast numbers. Sorry you don't like them. Can you quote my mistake? Can you quote me slamming a coach or player? Waxing about getting into the dance is a form of accepting that it's okay to perform this way. Despite everyone's enthusiasm we remain a distant longshot to make the tournament. No one lower than a 63 RPI has ever made the tournament. At 20-10 we will have a 70 RPI. I don't care how much Joe Lunardi thinks it's a feel good story, Clemson of all teams is not going to reset the NCAA standard for getting into the tournament. 20-10 + plus 2 ACC tourney wins. Maybe? Seriously, why are you incapable of constructive conversation? Just acting like a spoiled princess again.
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Legend [19352]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 6:28 PM
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I just think it's funny you have said literally ZERO positive things about basketball this year despite us playing well right now.
Great fan you are you feel the need to constantly rain on people's parade every time they post something positive about basketball. It is quite sad. At least when I criticized Coach Leggett I would still get excited about wins!
Message was edited by: clemtiger117®
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Legend [16761]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 6:38 PM
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It's not what I do. Again, I post roughly 10% of your volume. I don't post "attaboys" for any of the teams and I don't post threads bashing the teams after a loss. But, when people post things that imply we're a "strong finish" from an NCAA tournament I feel like offering a little perspective. South Carolina has only lost 2 games yet if you look at FGF they seem more in tune with the fact they might not make the tournament than posters on here. And, if you'll check out the RPI wizard on the site I linked (a relatively new feature I was unfamiliar with) you'll see just how costly the Umass and Minn games were. They're costing us 30 RPI positions.
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All-TigerNet [10941]
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hey Vittiz, Lunardi is like 97%...
Jan 23, 2016, 6:57 PM
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Picking the right teams who make the dance. Don't that dance wizard is that accurate...
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Legend [16761]
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Re: hey Vittiz, Lunardi is like 97%...
Jan 23, 2016, 7:23 PM
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Lunardi - as are almost all dance card pickers - is 97% correct AT THE END OF THE REGULAR SEASON. Right now he's just talking out of his butt. He's not 97% with 6 weeks to go. It's really not as impressive as you think. After automatic bids and the most obvious at large bids there are usually only 3-4 toss up seeds. Which is the whole genesis of the "last four in" "last four out". RPI is still an incredibly significant indicator of likelihood to make the tournament. It is a fact that no team has ever made it in with an RPI lower than 63. If you want to believe Clemson will be the team to beat that then go ahead, but I've never seen Clemson get the benefit of the doubt in anything basketball related. Rpiforecast is just raw data and a calculator. We're nowhere near the actual bubble. Even Lunardi currently has us "out." A home loss will take us off the board entirely. We can safely afford 2 more losses. That's a hard row to hoe. No, the projections going forward aren't absolute. It can't factor the future impact on opponent w/l and opponents' opponents w/l with a high degree of accuracy. But, with more than half the season done, it can tell you based on your future opponents current standing where you will end up with any combination of wins and losses. Check out the rpiwizard - it is a fairly impressive piece of software.
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Orange Blooded [4075]
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Clemson will beat Pitt on Wednesday ... then win 7 straight
Jan 23, 2016, 8:12 PM
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games after that ... with 4 of those 7 wins on the road ....
Remember, you heard it first on TigerNet !
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Legend [19352]
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Re: Clemson will beat Pitt on Wednesday ... then win 7 straight
Jan 23, 2016, 8:13 PM
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You are a troll
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Orange Blooded [4075]
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Actually, a FaceBook test I took said I am a ....
Jan 23, 2016, 8:17 PM
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Libertarian (with Republican leanings) .... nothing about a "troll" ... trolls like to eat little children, right ? I like Chicken Wings ...
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Legend [16761]
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Re: Actually, a FaceBook test I took said I am a ....
Jan 23, 2016, 8:24 PM
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I like chicken wings too. Common ground. We can all find some.
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CU Guru [1146]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 23, 2016, 11:47 PM
[ in reply to Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season .... ] |
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I disagree fully. 19 wins is the goal.
For the record, we're now projected into the NCAA Tournament by Lunardi as of Saturday night. Need the Pitt win bad.
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Legend [16761]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 24, 2016, 8:01 AM
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Lunardi has us "first 4 out" as of his Twitter post Saturday night which is his most recent update. A 19-11 regular season finish will give us an RPI in the 80s according to rpiforecast. Since rpi is simply a combination of w/l percentages it's pretty easy to model. No team has ever gotten in lower than 63. So when you "disagree fully" do you believe that Clemson will shatter the precedent for lowest RPI to ever make the tournament or do you believe that the RPI modeling is so flawed that at 19 wins we actually have an RPI better than 63?
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CU Guru [1146]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 24, 2016, 3:32 PM
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I have the picture of us at the last team in from A game on ESPN last night. Won't let me attach it. But it's basically splitting hairs at this point.
Also, how can you say what our RPI will be at 19-11 if you don't know what those 7 wins would be? That's impossible, and that site also discounts what you're opponents do. It's extremely unreliable. As is the RPI altogether.
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Legend [16761]
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Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season ....
Jan 24, 2016, 5:17 PM
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It's actually not impossible. The RPI formula is (your w/l %) + (your opponents combined w/l %) + (your opponents' opponents w/l %). Each w/l % is weighted for home and away. In actuality it doesn't really matter who you win or lose to. 1/3 of the formula is your w/l percentage. Regardless who you lose to. Home losses hurt worse but road wins count for the same amount more benefit. The further you get into the season the more effective the modeling is. We don't need to know who the seven wins are against. Just what the w/l % at the end of the season would be in each instance plus the impact of your known opponents. That's where the most speculation kicks in because the system is modeling out the odds of each of those remaining opponents games and even the opponents' opponents schedules. Now, you're free to think this particular formula is stupid for determining who goes to the tourney. I don't like it. But it has been a highly accurate indicator of who does and doesn't get into the tourney. I like Sagarin a lot better and he has us in the 50s. 67 is the lowest RPI to get in and only four teams in the 60s have ever gotten in.
I want the team to make it in. I just don't see it knowing what I know about the selection process. I'm a pretty big college basketball fan. Haven't missed the first round (now called second round) since I was a kid. Used to cut high school to go watch the Thursday, Friday games at a local sports bar (this is awhile ago now).
Check out the rpiwizard on the rpiforecast website. It lets you manipulate the schedule any way you want. Change w/l results. Swap out opponents. Change home games to away. Whatever. its pretty interesting if your interested at all in how it works.
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Orange Blooded [4075]
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The Math Sez We Will Be IN (see Spock like logic below)
Jan 24, 2016, 12:33 AM
[ in reply to Re: ??? Beat Pitt and have a real good run rest of season .... ] |
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Our current win rate in ACC play is ~71% (5 out 7) There are 11 regular ACC games left to play .71 x 11 = 7.81 games won rounded to 8
Given these metrics, Clemson will win at least 20 games in the regular season (12 + 8)
Given that the BULK of the wins will be ACC wins (>=13)
And that a significant % percentage of wins are against Top 25 Teams (3 current + 1 probable (Pitt) + 1 probable (UVa (home)) = 5 Top 25 Wins
The bottom line
I pity the fool who thinks a team with such a resume would not make "The Dance" ...
Did not even take into account the ACC Tournament ... Did not take into account that the schedule gets "easier" from now on ... some toughies, many on the road ... but we have passed "the gauntlet" with flying colors !
Remember, you heard it first on TigerNet !
Message was edited by: OhWiseOne®
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Legend [16761]
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Re: The Math Sez We Will Be IN (see Spock like logic below)
Jan 24, 2016, 8:12 AM
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I think 20 wins at the end of the regular season puts us "on the bubble" going into the ACC tournament. That projects a 70 RPI which is still too low. But they don't seed before the tournament. The ACC tournament becomes critical at that point. Go 0-1 and RPI drops back into the high 70s or low 80s and it's a bridge too far. Even going 1-1 will probably leave us out as we would still be in the 70s. That's just a huge jump to think the committee is going to suddenly disregard the RPI altogether. It's the single most important factor. 22 wins (including ACC tournament) looks to be the magic number to me. 20-10 regular season 2-1 ACC tournament yields an RPI in the 50s and our top 25 wins push us ahead of other bubble teams with better RPIs. It's doable but doubtful. I would be kind of delicious if SCar drops a few more games and we manage to muscle them off the bubble. Unlikely, but certainly worth cheering for.
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Orange Blooded [4075]
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We Forgot The Important "Eye Test"
Jan 24, 2016, 10:15 AM
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Granted based on pure math, Clemson's road to the NCAA is not easy, but this year it certainly doable. EYE TEST ! ... If Clemson can keep it up, even if the RPI number put them beyond the traditional threshold. if they have been beating good team LATELY, that will help
I remember a person (respected) saying ... "The Selection committee wants teams who are playing well NOW, how they did back in the early part of the season does not matter ..."
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