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Lessons from last night, by Professor APM.
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Lessons from last night, by Professor APM.


Nov 7, 2018, 7:38 AM

Firstly, ol' APM is pretty good about calling these things, as I predicted - a Blue tide (more like a tiny lapping wavelet) not a Blue wave. (My CU PoliSci degree don't pay sh it but it comes in handy every other year or so.)

Reading the tea leaves APM comes away with some interesting lessons from last night.

1) Just being anti-Trump wasn't enough. In our area two liberal females ran for open House seats previously held by Pubs. Both got curb stomped. My district was won by a Basic White Guy lawyer (standard politician) but the 5th (a huge district that goes from the NC border to NoVA and includes the People's Republic of Charlottesville) was won by this guy named Riggleman and he is pretty cool, which bring us to the second point...

2) The voters like genuine candidates. And I see a trend toward SECULAR Republicans. Riggleman is a veteran and, get this, a distillery owner. During his victory "talk" (not a speech) last night he was at a brewery with veterans behind him and when he finished talking he took a swig of beer. A traditional Evangelical-courting Pub could not have done that before Trump. Love it.

3) The Kavanaugh debacle hurt some Dems. Cost them a Senate seat in North Dakota and the Senate is now solidly GOP.

4) Before anyone gets too excited about Dem control of the House, look at a House election map. 30-some seats is not a huge majority. The Dems do well in urban areas (both coasts basically and bigger cities in flyover country). This is the MINIMUM I would have expected given all the weeping and gnashing of teeth around Trump.

Not a Blue Wave:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fullpage/midterm-election-map-2018-live-results-58723598

5) Finally, and most importantly, none of this crap really matters. What you do in the four walls of your home will forever have more impact that anything that politicians do in DC.

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The people are finally begining to understand, at least in


Nov 7, 2018, 7:52 AM

the GOP, that "qualified" is not a resume enhancer. Touting a career in politics is not necessarily a good thing. It's bad in fact. Touting a career in the real world earning a living is MUCH preferred, all things being equal on the issues.

Sadly, the opportunity for an outsider to make it to federal elections is slim. Federal candidates are pulled from the ranks of the party machine, not the working people. I went with an outsider in all of my local races, again all things being equal on the issues. School board, and mayor especially. Voted no on the $350 MILLION bond referendum for schools. Why? Well, former school board chair retired. School board then bought some of her land for $10 MILLION, which is about 8 times market value, to build a new school. Nowhere in the referendum did it mention increasing teacher pay, benefits, or anything else that is actually helpful. My son attends a school that's a freaking Taj Mahal. I went to a school was old, run down, and basically looked crappy. The difference in an education does not lie in the money or the facilities, but in the teachers, standards, and curriculum. And even then, that's just what money can impact. The biggest difference lies at home with the parents. Not to mention now is a bad time for county taxpayers to loan the school district $350 million. I have a feeling long term it will be expensive.

Voted for new school board members wherever I could. New mayor too. They're all corrupt as hell around here.

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Meant to include this....


Nov 7, 2018, 8:28 AM

A very old problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nf_bu-kBr4

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This whole thing has me shaking my head


Nov 7, 2018, 1:26 PM [ in reply to The people are finally begining to understand, at least in ]

This kind of populism is so delusional.

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^^^establishment elite^^^***


Nov 7, 2018, 1:31 PM



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And what is that?


Nov 7, 2018, 1:37 PM

Who qualifies as not "establishment elite"? Do you have to say lots of stupid stuff so that you don't "sound like a politician"? Do you have to be more moderate than party leadership? Or more extreme and strident?

The truth is, these "establishment" and "outsider" labels you use are almost totally arbitrary ways of scapegoating responsible people while convincing yourself that new is always better.

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~Henry Brown, circa 2011***


Nov 7, 2018, 1:44 PM



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Same guy who won SC-1 five times, which was lost last night?


Nov 7, 2018, 1:49 PM

He wasn't a particularly good politician, but you could argue that he was an "outsider" because he didn't graduate from college and wasn't in elected office until he was 50, then didn't run for Congress until he was well into his 60s.

Successful politics requires having a relatively big tent, and that means letting in a few of the rubes you guys seem to like along with people who are afraid to rock the boat too much. Scapegoating and envy shouldn't be the major motivating factors for voting.

Message was edited by: camcgee®


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So apparently, this is just a football game.


Nov 7, 2018, 1:57 PM

And just staying in office is the NC.

I was really addressing your last part:

The truth is, these "establishment" and "outsider" labels you use are almost totally arbitrary ways of scapegoating responsible people while convincing yourself that new is always better.

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Not sure HB would use the word "arbitrary"


Nov 7, 2018, 2:11 PM

It's hard to figure out how you think politicians are supposed to accomplish what you think they should accomplish without being elected first.

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Get in, do your stuff, get out.


Nov 7, 2018, 3:12 PM

Making a career out of it only really helps the politician.

I guess I'd be as mad as he was, and Arrington was, when they didn't win.

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It's definitely a football game...


Nov 7, 2018, 2:43 PM [ in reply to So apparently, this is just a football game. ]

Also on NPR last night was a congressman who was safe for re-election. He is one of the leaders fo the freedom caucus. The host asked if the FC would try to push its agenda harder if dems won the house and yet the FC expanded at the same time, becoming a larger portion of the Pub caucus.

He said, "This is a team sport and the first thing we need to do is get that win for the R's"

She said, sure, but how bout my question?

He said, "This is a team sport...."

It went on two more times before she gave up, but dude straight up called it a team sport at least ten more times.

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FYI, Obama was enough to make a Christian drink.


Nov 7, 2018, 7:54 AM

Actually, I quit during the Obama years.

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Ehhh...


Nov 7, 2018, 8:12 AM

This thing went as most pundits predicted, so I'm not sure what you think you called.

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[Catahoula] used to be almost solely a PnR rascal, but now has adopted shidpoasting with a passion. -bengaline

You are the meme master. - RPMcMurphy®

Trump is not a phony. - RememberTheDanny


Re: Ehhh...


Nov 7, 2018, 8:49 AM

https://www.tigernet.com/forum/message/APMs-prediction-for-next-Tuesday-(my-track-record-is-good)-24379291

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Re: Lessons from last night, by Professor APM.


Nov 7, 2018, 9:00 AM

Anytime voter turnout is high the possibility of a wave is low for either side. Waves normally happen when one side is apathetic and stays home. Don't think we will see that with any election while Trump is around as he energizes both sides.

Overall, what most non-biased pundits predicted happened. In the house, rural American would go red, urban would go blue and the suburbs would swing it one way or the other. As for the senate, it would stay the same or gain red.

That is essentially what happened. Sure, there were surprises on both sides throughout the night but overall nothing really shocking.

One important thing you mentioned that I don't think can be repeated enough, on either side voters are starving for genuine people to run. Hope we see more of that going forward.

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Re: Lessons from last night, by Professor APM.


Nov 7, 2018, 9:09 AM

Is Trump genuine?

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Re: Lessons from last night, by Professor APM.


Nov 7, 2018, 11:39 AM

No, at least not in my opinion. A showman, yes. Genuine, no.

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I'm not sure people are interested in "genuine"


Nov 7, 2018, 1:41 PM [ in reply to Re: Lessons from last night, by Professor APM. ]

Many just want something "different," whatever that means. There are plenty of candidates and elected people who genuinely think it's not good to be strident about everything, or who are genuinely doctrinaire conservatives or liberals.

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Riggleman also wants Planned Parenthood defunded


Nov 7, 2018, 1:32 PM

And it's not like he's advertised that he's "secular," whatever that means.


As Micheal Brendan Dougherty pointed out a few years ago, many people try to interpret election losses in this way: If it were more like me, the Republican Party would be better off. It’s failing because it’s like you.

Message was edited by: camcgee®


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^^^doesn't get it - Beltway Elite thinking^^^***


Nov 7, 2018, 3:00 PM



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