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Topic: And for all the whining...the numbers
Replies: 38   Last Post: Sep 21, 2018 8:21 AM by: Neal in NC®
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Replies: 38  

And for all the whining...the numbers

[67]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 12:36 AM
 

This is the thing that would scare the absolutely crap out of me...if I was an opposing coach looking to take down Clemson. The more you look at the numbers, the scarier Clemson looks.

Clemson hasn't been firing on all cylinders to start the year. As usual. The reason is also the usual: a lot of new pieces, and the vast numbers of players Clemson is playing, in key moments, early on in football games. If you've been paying attention, it's been kind of hard to miss that Clemson has played 3 QB's significant snaps already. And 4 RB's. And 10 WR's. And 5 TE's, 10 OL's, 13 DL's, 9 LB's, and 10 DB's...it goes on. And on.

Dabo plays his guys. Yes, it's inconvenient, especially early. The team looks clunky, often never seems to get in a rhythm. You're having to live with a bunch of Young Player mistakes, often all at once.

And yet...the performance metrics. They're good. Shockingly good, given the perception.

For all the catwerwauling and hand-wringing and external condemnation, Clemson ranks #20 overall in total offense, at 513.0 yards per game. For as "unstoppable" as everyone claims Alabama has looked, the Tide rank just six spots ahead of Clemson, coming in at #14 nationally at 544.7 ypg. Georgia? They're ranked #31 overall, at 488.3 ypg...and they've played absolutely nobody. Well, (cough), South Carolina.

Defense? Clemson ranks 10th overall in total D, giving up just 268.0 ypg. Georgia is (slightly) ahead of us at #7 overall, giving up 258.7 ypg...though again, they've played no one with a pulse yet. Alabama is giving up 302.3 yards per game...good for just 23rd nationally, well below their usual output.

Obviously, Clemson's composite output is the best among the three teams.

You can factor in other contenders, I suppose. Ohio State and Oklahoma are offensive juggernauts thus far. Ohio State is #3 overall (603.0 ypg) in terms of offense, Oklahoma #12 (551.3 ypg). The big problem with both is their defenses: Ohio State is giving up seventy yards a game more than Clemson is, at 345.7ypg (51st nationally), and Oklahoma is doing what Oklahoma has done ever since Brent Venables left town, giving up 384.7ypg...which is good for 80th overall, nationally. Rock on, Sooners.

Parse those stats how you will. What's also interesting to me is that Clemson has, by a bunch, the best statistical win of the year, a true OOC road win at A&M, a venue few other teams would voluntarily play. While other squads have feasted on neutral-site games at best and FCS teams quite often, Clemson went to the most valuable franchise in college football...and beat them, with what amounted to Clemson's "C" game. Not awful.

FWIW.


Love you quozzel, but I think you're off the mark here.

[22]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 1:18 AM
 

Points per game:
1. Bama 56.7
2. OhSt 56.3
6. Boston College 52.7
10. Oklahoma 49.7
12. Syracuse 49.0
14. Miami 47.7
19. Georgia 45.0
21. TexAM 41.3
41. Clemson 38

Yards are nice, but they only count for what they are converted into.. points. Similarly, if our D and ST gave us the ball on the opponents 45yrd line every time, we wouldn't care about yards in the game, we'd care how many drives were converted into points.

But scoring defense matters just as much, so lets take a look:

2. Georgia 8.0
8. Bama 9.3
15. Clemson 13.3
21. TexAM 15.0
27. Duke 16.0
37. GA SOUTHERN 19.0
41. Syracuse 19.7
45. OhSt 20.7

The composite of these numbers puts Bama 1, Georgia 2, TexAM 3, and then Clemson, OhSt, and Syracuse pretty close together for 4, 5, and 6.

I love our team. I was driving home thinking of all the FR playing.. TL handing off to Dixon who follows Carmans blocks. Justyn Ross, Kendrick, XT. Its awesome. Yes, getting those guys reps will pay off. But giving yrds per game to sell me on why Clemson is good doesn't work. The points matter, not the yards.

That said, TexAM is 21st both in scoring O and D.. that win looks better by the week.

Thanks again for your posts. They are always informative and thought provoking, but I believe you missed on this one my friend.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/27

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null


True, but points can from from places outside a teams

[3]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 4:04 AM
 

offense. Special teams and defensive TDs.

I don't think we have any special teams or defensive TDs to date.

I've always seen yardage as a better measure of the strength of an offense or defense. That and how well they take care of the football (turnovers).


These are scoring offense and scoring defense rankings.

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 10:04 AM
 

A pick 6 is not reflected under scoring offense.

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null


Re: Love you quozzel, but I think you're off the mark here.

[5]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 6:22 AM
 

Regarding the points scored ranking, the playing of so many young players is directly related. The Tigers are moving the ball well between the 20’s. The mistakes have hurt them from converting drives to points. With conference play starting and coaches deciding who will now redshirt, the offense and defense will now tighten up the 3 deep roster. Expect to see better execution from here on out.


We have played 1 team with a pulse

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 6:33 AM
 

statistics vs GSU and Furman don't mean much. Everybody plays a lot of people when they play scrub games.

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Why are we only looking at these simple metrics...


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:07 AM
 

Rather than advanced statistics which take into account many of these metrics in their ranks? Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings are some of the most relied upon in the industry and are very favorable toward Clemson.


Feel free to share them..***

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 11:57 AM
 



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null


Being the board's contentious sumbich let me argue...

[4]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 11:55 AM
 

another point. Stats are for fools when it comes to evaluations. That is especially true with such a small sample taken from such a variety of dissimilar circumstances.

My daughter was taking a grad level course in statistics questioning how much it would help with her MBA. Being a novice at stats with only one undergrad course I suggested the goal of those who included a grad level stats course only intended the student to know that anyone can 'prove,' anything if they pick out the right set of data to run the numbers.

We are bombarded with stats daily, economic, health and social issue statistics. Most which are calculated to make us for a conclusion which favors the people producing the stats. Beware of those who use stats to support their opinions and be circumspect when it comes to allowing anyone pushing stats to change what you see with your eyes.

Three games doesn't provide for honest to any stats. Even a complete season won't provide for honest of stats to evaluate who has the best football team because no two schedules are identical. Even playing the same teams at different times of the year will not give an honest comparison because of injuries, who got laid the night before the game and what each individual had for lunch. Thousands of other factors are involved, probably enough to overload our fasted and most sophisticated computers. After all that I could still find plenty of reasons to doubt the rhetoric of the statistician.

What have we seen so far? None of us have watch all three of the games of each team contributing to those stats. Overall, the total number of game of the opponent's opponent's opponent's would have to be included. Now we're returning to the BCS computer models.

Let me tell you how I feel about Clemson by telling you what I've seen. I've watch a coaching staff manufacture adversity just like they've done for at least five years. I've seen a coaching staff put greenhorns in the game early and often, early to get their nerves settled and often to give them the opportunity to be successful or fail. They do this to provide an opportunity for the youth to build their confidence in themselves and their team mates. Do you believe this or am I blowing smoke up your collective buttholes?

If you've seen it or you trust my evaluation then you've just blown the whole stats are dependable completely out of the water. The stats become worthless because most other coaches are not doing this. Most coaches play for the win and don't have the luxury of playing anyone at anytime and winning. Oh how we know Dabo will totally screw a game up in his efforts to manufacture adversity and drama.

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Re: Love you quozzel, but I think you're off the mark here.

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 3:14 PM
 

WOW, 41st, WOW!!!??

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Re: Love you quozzel, but I think you're off the mark here.


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 3:46 PM
 

You’re the one who missed. What matters is dubya’s


I suppose you could argue that yards are to points

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 5:25 PM
 

what points are to wins. Obviously the win is what matters most in terms of stats. But how interesting is a conversation where we just list out the 34 teams tied for most wins?

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null


Stats matter, and points matter, but what really matters is


Posted: Sep 21, 2018 8:11 AM
 

Getting the W. Unlike some others, it seems Dabo's main goal is to develop the TEAM - the entire team, not just the first team, which is why he is mixing in as many FR and SO as possible to give them as much experience as possible. Ultimately, it all comes down the W's - and we have as many as we can have right now. While it would be nice to have hung 60 or so on Furman or Ga Southern, and 40 on A&M, we're also in the position of not being scared to death of what will happen if ET goes down, or KB, or any number of starters.

We have depth, and that's something not easily measurable, if at all. Our guys know they can take a play or two or three if needed and that the next man up is fully capable. Coaches know that if someone goes down with an injury, the next man up can fill the void.

Get the W. Develop the team. Grow the experience. Accomplish the goals.


Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[8]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 1:27 AM
 

I’ve watched the Ga Southern game 4 times. I’m constantly pausing it trying to figure out who is in the game. That went on from late in the 1st Qtr and all the way through the game. 14 recievers? Has that ever happened before? I think Dabo was the only receiver that didn’t have a catch.


You think you had a hard time...


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 12:45 PM
 

Imagine how hard of time Paul Johnson and Co have had trying to game plan for that.

2018 student level member

Whiners gotta whine, that's what they do........***

[4]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 5:00 AM
 



2018 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg

^^^^^^^math checks out***

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 7:54 AM
 




I appreciate your posts

[3]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 6:09 AM
 

Thank you for the content of your post. As mentioned by another poster, your content is always informative and usually looks at a different angle than most.

I agree that the data you presented makes me feel more positive anout this team than i initially have. You are certainly correct though in stating this team has appeared "clunky" at times. My only real question for the coaches at this point would be; when do you start placing a premium on the continuity of your starting unit for offense and provide them with significant workload. I can't argue the results (and no, losing in the Playoffs to Alabama does not count as failure to me) but personally my eyes tell me we very rarely get to a poiny where the starters play a vast majority of the snaps. First world problems.


Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[4]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 6:28 AM
 

I Love Clemson. I love them and battle SEC fans everyday. Were just not there yet offensively and defensively. I'm not a big fan of the 2 quarterback system, however that's why coaches get paid lots of money to coach. TL is the future and needs time to grow. The OC needs to adjust to his skill set and spread the field and let him sling it out. You have huge WR's and TE's throw it up. That's one of the reasons Clemson Beat Bama during Deshaun's epic drive. Don't be afraid to throw it up man. Higgins and Ross can be special make them special. KB is a good read option QB however when you face elite defenses (IE BAMA,GA,OSU)Read option will not work when your methods to defend Read option are kill the QB every time he touches the ball. Thefore I say put the ball in TL hands. v Comprise creative ways to get Ettine the ball in space. Pound Feaster and Dixon. Get the O Line going North taking the will of these teams. We have too much talent to play scared and hesitant. I'm more than confident these things will get figured out and we will be great this Year!


^ In Short..

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 7:03 AM
 

Put The Dang Metal to The PEDAL & Gut eR DONE!

??

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To All CLEMSON TiGERS..Sending you Bright Light from the Carolina Coast and hoping you get to witness a huge Orange sunset tonight. Go Tigers!


Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 7:51 AM
 

Well done , as usual quozzel !

We'll be there at the end , I have no doubt . This guy Dabo Swinney just may turn out to be a football coach .

2018 white level member

DB23


How dare you...

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:59 AM
 

interject facts, logic and common sense into the discussion.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


It do be unusual to see a footsball message on the footsball

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 9:11 AM
 

bored. Hoping this is a thing.

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Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 9:17 AM
 

Dude, that was a great write up... Keep on rocking my brotha....Go Tigers!! peace


Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 9:49 AM
 




An undervalued measure of an offense's output is 3rd down

[6]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 10:46 AM
 

conversion success rate. Important stat because not only are you continuing drives, it's demoralizing to the opponents defense if they can't get off the field. Clemson so far:

5/12 (41.7%) vs Furman
4/13 (30.8%) vs Texas A&M
7/12 (58.3%) vs Ga Southern
16/37 (43.2%) = 49th out of 130. Still early in season but would like to be at least in top 20 for this stat.

For comparison sake, the 2016 championship team was 117/233 (50.2%) ranking 8th overall out of 128. Last year we were 101/208 (46.3%) 7th out of 130.


a big reason for that stat was our success


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 5:49 PM
 

on first down that year.

I really hope we see this team start to live by that philosophy. We got great yardage on first downs that year. It made things a lot easier to convert 3rd downs


That was the last year we had a good running game. It wasn't the most explosive but a heck of a lot more reliable than what we've seen the last 2 years.


This is the metric

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:13 PM
 

That I put stock in, and what concerns me. Our 3rd down conversion rate is bad even with the starters in. We play a ton of people, but watch the first couple of drives between us, ga, and bama with starters in. There is a difference. They sustain drives with first downs, we run KB for a loss of 1...Plus, our stalled drives and short punts do not help our defense. I still believe the OL is the root cause of our woes, and it seems that dabo is getting on them...

military_donation.jpg

Nice write-up

[1]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 11:25 AM
 

I agree with Soywalker in that points should be factored in to tell the whole story, but nonetheless a good read.

2018 white level member

Re: And for all the whining...the numbers

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 12:00 PM
 

We have played a soft schedule so far, so it's really hard to take much out of it this early in the year. I think we all see the same. Tons of potential. Scoring offense isn't up to snuff. Our D is up and down. Overall we haven't lived up to our potential. We will be firing on all cylinders by Cuse though.

2018 white level member

Amazing what you can find out when


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 3:31 PM
 

you look at facts and take feelings out of it.

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GO TIGERS!!


This is ONE HECK of a THREAD!!!!!!

[2]
Posted: Sep 20, 2018 5:28 PM
 

Thanks to ALL!!!!


Re: This is ONE HECK of a THREAD!!!!!!


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:21 PM
 

I wonder if Dabo rotating so many players is a plan to lessen the number of potential transfers with the new rule?


I don't think that's it. But I do think the new 4 games


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:29 PM
 

before redshirting is a big reason why we're seeing so many players. Get them some experience..why not? It can only be good for the future.


I'm not so sure.


Posted: Sep 21, 2018 8:21 AM
 

We clearly have some freshman that have not played. It appears that we are red shirting them. Most of the freshman that are playing have played every game. Of course it opens up options, but I don't think there are any players that we are planning on playing a couple games and red shirting. Maybe down the line if you are in a pinch, someone can come in and give some depth in a game or two, but the ones that are playing now are not red shirting.

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Yep. Bama and others can RUTS with their starters


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 8:24 PM
 

all year if they want to. When they lose some to injuries their backups will have no experience. Dabo coaches for the long haul, not instant gratification and it may pay off in the end. For years to come.


Re: Yep. Bama and others can RUTS with their starters


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 11:30 PM
 

Good thread I like the different takes from you guys. Good stuff.

2018 white level member

It is paying off right now.


Posted: Sep 20, 2018 11:39 PM
 

He's been doing it for five or six years.

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Gotta love Dabo's rotatations...


Posted: Sep 21, 2018 12:34 AM
 

15 games is a LOT of games. Fresh bodies perform better. Fresh bodies get injured less. More bodies means less fatigue over 15 games. More bodies means more team competition. More bodies means better morale - Everybody plays! Let's face it...if I'm a superstar, my college experience is a just a pit stop. Why would I WANT to take a ton of reps, with the accompanying chance of injury, when I can showcase my skills with the minimum chance of injury before I get my NFL paycheck? Dabo gets it.


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