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How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?
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How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?


Nov 25, 2019, 11:44 AM

The committee is tasked with picking "the four best teams" not the "four most deserving teams."

That should be very simple. Just ask the bookies in Vegas. They didn't build all thos huge casinos and hotels out there by being wrong. They are far better qualified to name the four best teams using the simple criteria: If these two teams met on a level playing field, who would be favored?

I think the committee should pick "the four most deserving teams." That is much more difficult when you have five conferences and four spots, when some conference champions have multi-loss seasons, etc.

But, there should be a couple of principles that would come into play.
1. Losses matter.
2. Conference championships matter.

So, some criteria falls into place failry quickly.

1. An undefeated conference champion gets in over a 1 loss conference champ.
2. A one loss conference champion gets in over a 1 loss non-conference champion.

Therefore, the only way a non-conference champion would qualify as "deserving (earned) the right" to make the playoffs is meet at least the following criteria:
1. Have one loss.
2. Have two or more conference champs with two losses.

Utah finishes 12-1 = They are slotted ahead of Bama.
Oklahoma/Baylor finishes 12-1 = They are slotted ahead of Baylor.
UGA beats LSU = LSU drops below any one loss conference champ.

You want to make the final four? EARN your way in.

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Agreed....but to take it a step further


Nov 25, 2019, 11:54 AM

I would argue that it should be the best four conference champions. It's not fair to the winner of a conference championship to have to beat a team they've already, most likely, beaten. The beauty, or at least a significant one, of college football is that regular season games matter.

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Re: How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?


Nov 25, 2019, 12:36 PM

The committee's mission statement actually says "best teams," and not "best 4 teams" like is usually quoted. Their guidelines also gives them a set of guidelines to go to unless a team is "unequivocally" better than another team. I would argue that the ones that set things, chose their words with the intention of having teams from different conferences except in unusual circumstances, because judging teams with few common parameters becomes very subjective.

To me there was no question that LSU is better than Alabama this year. Therefore, I do not need Alabama in a playoff to determine THE BEST team, regardless of where you rank them. If I thought LSU was a fluke then I would qualify that as an unusual circumstance. Did it look like a fluke to anyone else?

As far as most deserving versus best, I believe that in general it becomes the same thing if you don't falsely insert 4 between best teams. Then you end up judging teams that can be fairly judged against each other. The best of the best end up in a playoff, and in my mind the winner has a stronger argument as the champion of all, than someone who may have just had 2 good games.

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Can't Use: "Most Deserving"


Nov 25, 2019, 12:52 PM

I don't believe it would be good to put in any language where you open Pandora's box to - Most Deserving! I think Clemson and Alabama would kick the schlitz out of most college football teams in the country. In our case, I don't see an opponent on the horizon we are not "capable of beating". But, if you said - Most Deserving - some people would not include Clemson or Alabama!

Stop with the pre-season rankings! Stop giving teams credit for beating bad teams or overrated teams. Until that gets stopped the whole - "they played more ranked teams than you did" argument keeps coming up. No matter where that ranked team ends up being - you get credit for where they were at the time. So now the "perception" of a team is built off of "false data"!
Input false data at the beginning of the equation you will usually get a bad/wrong answer!

The only way to settle what you are getting at is to have a "super conference with only those 12 - 15 teams who realistically have a shot at the National Title each year! Otherwise, if you are going to get beat up about schedules, the team in the perceived strongest conference has an advantage. The rest are just glorified G5 schools.
I like your thought about winning your conference! Win your conference and if it ever happened where we had 5 undefeated P5 champions - Maybe we have a play in game instead of conference championships! Let the runner up play for it while you go for a NC. Or just go by the committee's ranking - "hey #5 you are out"! < - - - not likely to ever happen; but could.

When I see rankings I go simply by: "who do I feel would beat everybody else" as #1. And so on and so forth. Go by that and you get who's better! Regardless of what conference or any other politics. The whole SEC gets so good because they play against each other argument gets debunked most bowl seasons! So, only the proud few who are SEC-Homers would go there. You would hope everyone else calls it like they see it "regardless of conference"!

2024 purple level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Actually, most deserving is most accurate


Nov 25, 2019, 3:42 PM

all that the ncaa has to do is adopt the NFL model, which starts with the premise that all conferences are the same and that there are no strength of schedule arguments. the seedings are settled on the field based on wins and losses. set the priorities that being undefeated and a conference champion is priority #1. when there are 5 undefeated conference champions, common P5 opponents and wins over P5 opponents will provide an opportunity to judge schedule strength and strength of wins. a conference champion should never take a back seat to a non conference champion no matteer the record because all that will do is rehash the argument that not all conferences are equal. there are more factors to be considered when you have champions with losses but I hope you understand my point.

an 8-8 south division champion Panthers gets a playoff spot, even if a 10-6 Cowboys finishes 3rd in their division and they don't qualify to be a wild card team. college football has too long operated under the "eye test", and I can agree to the metrics for seeding, but if you win a conference championship, that should mean more than a team beat the "#1" team in the country but didn't win your conference... as we saw so many times this year, on any given game day, #1, #2 or #3 can lose to an unranked or "small" team...

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Re: How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?


Nov 25, 2019, 3:57 PM

Easy.

Best first: Records and conference championships matter.

If there's a tie, then most deserving. Who you beat and who you lost to matter.

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You do realize you are making a strong case for


Nov 25, 2019, 7:53 PM

Any unbeaten Group of 5 conf champion. The minute you stop normalizing records for strength of schedule and use the criteria below you have to accept that an unbeaten conf champ is superior to a 1 loss team from ANY conference.

That’s why it’s not that simple. Out of conference schedules are not equal. Conferences are not equal. You have all these teams proving themselves against vastly different criteria throughout the season.

With 4 teams it has to be subjective.

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Re: How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?


Nov 26, 2019, 1:08 AM

I say take the 4 best. The others are not deserving. Kind of like the 2nd best team in the ACC this year doesnt deserve the Orange Bowl.

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Just like the NFL take Conference Champions


Nov 26, 2019, 2:33 AM

NO MATTER THEIR RECORD! Yep you got One Conference champ left out as long as it stays 4 spots. But different stats and such can be used to decide who's 4th place if the records are the same. Just saying it shouldn't be this #### complicated.

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that makes non conference games meaningless


Nov 26, 2019, 7:03 AM

that is the one good thing about football, the whole season matters.

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Re: How to pick the playoff teams, best or most deserving?


Nov 26, 2019, 6:59 AM

In the CFP top 7 (realistic opportunity to make the CFP but anything could happen), there are 3 teams that rank in both the top 10 offensive and defensive stats - O31O State, Clemson and Utah. LSU and Bama are there for offensive stats but not defensive and UGA is there for defensive stats and not offensive.

My top 4 if anyone asked would be #1 O31O State, #2 Clemson, #3 LSU and #4 Utah. Followed by: #5 OU, #6 UGA, #7 Minnesota, #8 Bama.

Reasoning: I cannot place UGA with a loss to Uof5C at home over Utah with a loss to the real USC

IMO, Bama lost to LSU and lost Tua. They should be out of the conversation because they would not be competitive against the top 4.

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