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FB Update: Vegas odds on Clemson-AU, Clemson-FSU, Clemson-UL
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Editor [∞]
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FB Update: Vegas odds on Clemson-AU, Clemson-FSU, Clemson-UL
May 29, 2017, 10:38 PM
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Orange Blooded [3968]
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1 loss season?
May 29, 2017, 10:44 PM
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I'll take it.
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Fan [92]
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Auburn Tigers not Auburn War Eagles.***
May 30, 2017, 7:45 AM
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Vegas doesn't care about the coot game?
May 30, 2017, 7:47 AM
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Think Clemson will be favored by 20 points
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CU Guru [1322]
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3 game max per team
May 30, 2017, 8:31 AM
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Auburn, FSU, and LOU will all draw a bigger handle
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CU Medallion [64889]
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Orange Blooded [2438]
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Re: FB Update: Vegas odds on Clemson-AU, Clemson-FSU, Clemson-UL
May 30, 2017, 8:06 AM
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Guess Athelon doesn't talk with Vegas. A 9 win season prediction can't jive with Tigers be 5 against the Seminoles and 7 vs Auburn but losing vs Louisville unless we hiccup vs the wolf pack and coots. Nada.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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Sure it can. Vegas has our O/U at 9 wins despite being
May 30, 2017, 10:24 AM
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favored in almost every game.
If we have enough games in the 50-75% range we are likely to lose a few of them. And sometimes it's a game like Pitt (i think we were 90 or 91% to win that game) that you end up losing rather than an obvious one like Louisville or FSU.
There's a table that can give you an approximate winning % based on point spreads. 7 point favorite vs Auburn = 70% win. 2 point dog at Louisville = 46% win. 5 point favorite vs FSU = 66% win. Add those up and you get something like 1.8 or so wins on average out of those 3 games.
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CU Medallion [55267]
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110%er [7229]
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After further review the call is reversed
May 30, 2017, 8:28 AM
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First and foremost I hope the betting line remains with Louisville winning because I'm betting against the odds. Here's my bold prediction based on research of each of the opponents we play this season.
Kent State: Easy win because their run defense is weak sauce. They literally have a one dimensional offense as well.
Auburn: This game will be an easy win for us because Auburn lost ALL of its defensive production from a season ago. Their offense has struggled for several seasons. Especially early in the season.
Louisville: This game will be in Papa John Stadium so it will be hostile. However, if we contain Lamar Jackson then it should be a nasty night for the home team. Louisville only returns one starter on the offensive line, and they lost more than half of their starters on defense. Lamar Jackson is good, but he has no protection against our super nasty defense coming in this season.
FSU: I would say for us to be on the lookout for their new running back. He's quick and very shifty, but he doesn't have the power of Cook. Give him another season or two and he will be a force to deal with. FSU has one of the toughest defenses we will face this season. However, many of the players are young and inexperienced. This game will come down to who plays well in the trenches.
Surprises: GT will try a new offensive scheme this season. They have some studs at the RB position, but they will involve the TE and WR corps more so than seasons past in order to create a down field threat. It will fail once Coach Venables figures out the scheme. We need to play violent and aggressive this entire game. Due to the schemes and different formations our depth chart on defense will be tested for this one. The GT defense is solid at LB and average on the line. Their secondary lacks any real ability to stop our WR so long as we have a solid man at QB that can throw accurately with arm strength.
Other surprise opponents will be NCST and VT. NCST returns many starters from last season. If Clemson even slightly overlooks or underestimates them it will be a very long night. VT always plays hard until the last whistle. Our depth will be tested for this game as well.
Rivalry Week: This game will be closer than many think. South Carolina was a very young team last season. They seem to be on a mission to prove something to the nation. A little motivation goes a long way when referencing the intangibles of college football. After all, its rivalry week and anything can happen.
Our Biggest Opponent: CLEMSON is the biggest opponent we face this season. Our defense may turn out to be one of if not the best we've ever witnessed. However, our offense didn't impress me when watching the Spring Game. Our offensive line will be solid, and RB Corps looks strong heading into the season. Our new WR class looks very amateur at best. Aside of McCloud, Cain, and Renfrow our WR don't seem to attack or go after the ball in a passing situation. They need to fight for the ball and be physical when going up for a pass. Ray Ray and Renfrow always seem to get yards after catch, but I've yet to see any real progress of yards after catch with other WR. At TE we are deep, but I'm not comfortable enough to write them off as very talented because I've yet to see a pass completed to a TE for yards. They do a great job blocking though. In my honest opinion Cooper and Johnson played the best during the Spring Game. We are one dimensional with Bryant because he's not an effective passer. Johnson in my opinion would have been the clear choice had it not been for two horrible snaps. Let's pray that Dabo makes the clear choice here. Bryant shouldn't even be a QB in my opinion, he should be a WR, RB, or Special Teams.
Any thoughts?
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I think Louisville returns 2 OTs, but loses their C and both
May 30, 2017, 10:08 AM
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OGs. It sounds like one of those OTs is moving back to his natural guard position though.Their top 2 RBs are gone, but Jackson accounted for about 50% of their rushing yards last year. They lose their top pass catchers including the TE Hikutini. However, they do return 1 starting WR plus their best big play threat in Jaylen Smith (4th on the team in receiving yards), so they should be fine at WR.
Losing Hikutini might hurt, but the real question for them on offense is what kind of OL play will they get. They were already really bad late in the year last season so losing 3/5 starters might not be that big of a deal depending on what they are able to replace them with. Or they might be even worse. Time will tell. With semi-competent line play this will be a really good offense again.
Defensively, they return both DEs, but lose the starting DT out of their 3-4 scheme (assuming the new DC runs it). 2 of their 4 LBs come back, 1 inside and 1 outside. In the secondary they lose Harvey-Clemons, but return the team's leading tackler in Chucky Williams. 1 CB is gone, but their shut-down guy, Zaire Alexander, is back.
I think you have over-stated their losses a bit. As far as i can tell they 5 defensive guys but return a couple very good ones. No position group on their defense got hit particularly hard. The biggest questions marks for Louisville are, 1) Can they improve the OL play, and 2) How does losing Grantham impact the defense? This team has the potential to be pretty darn good.
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Hall of Famer [22429]
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Re: After further review the call is reversed
May 30, 2017, 12:31 PM
[ in reply to After further review the call is reversed ] |
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Don't underestimate the FSU quarterback. We beat this kid senseless last year and he kept getting up. They had to come out and get him after 2 third down plays and you didn't think there was any way he'd return but he did. With another year of maturity and learning (really almost 2 years because we don't play them until November) he's the guy we need to be concerned about when we play FSU.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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Told ya Louisville on the road is a tougher game than Auburn
May 30, 2017, 8:55 AM
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at home.
I am a little bit surprised at just how much respect we are getting though, particularly in our home games. I thought we would be about a 3 point favorite over Auburn and maybe a pick'em against FSU. Vegas seems to like us ~4 points more than that.
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CU Guru [1198]
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Surprised at Louisville
May 30, 2017, 11:24 AM
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I think Louisville won't be nearly as good as they were last year. They lost a ton off the defense, and I don't see Lamar Jackson coming back with the same focus after winning the Heisman last year. The two toughest games will be at home. FSU and Auburn.
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All-TigerNet [13031]
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I don't see where they lost a "ton." I keep seeing
May 30, 2017, 1:16 PM
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people on Tigernet post this, but they lost their 3-4 DT, 2 of 4 LBs, 1 safety, and 1 CB. They return a likely 1st round corner in Alexander, safety Chucky Williams that led the team in tackles, and both DEs. They can plug in some guys and be just as good as last year on D. The biggest question mark for me would be how they play under a new DC.
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Hall of Famer [20518]
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they can plug in who?
May 30, 2017, 6:42 PM
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The problem with the Cards is they've recruited like crap-ola, especially on defense. Almost all of their talented guys were transfers - last year they had 21 of them on the roster - and that pipeline is being severed as they're having to come into line with ACC academic regs. Add to that Petrino doesn't recruit worth jack anyhow - he's a slash-and-burn artist, usually leaves after 3 years (this is his fourth year at Louisville, a first for him at any of his prior stops), and leaves an absolutely gutted locker room behind him. More than a few coaches have been appalled at how little he leaves behind once he's gone. He tried his usual shop-behind-the-scenes at a few places (including Auburn, who he famously flirted with back in 2003), but none of them matieralized, in no small part because of that prohibitive buyout Tom Julich, the Louisville AD, slapped on him this go-around. Julich was no fool; he knew Petrino's triflin' ways.
Grantham saw the writing on the wall and bolted despite the fact that he had the salary of a Brent Venables. He knew his team ran out of gas last year due to lack of depth and collapsed down the stretch - which happened the year before too - and it was going to be even worse this year for him.
I respect Petrino highly as a playcaller and a developer of QB's but he's a scumbag and is no kind of man-manager and his locker room tends to be an inchoate mess that gets worse the longer he's somewhere.
Bottom line is I think they hit a major wall this year. They look like a 6-6 squad that could slump even lower if the wheels totally come off, and they might.
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Oculus Spirit [90693]
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^^^^ Hoping above
May 30, 2017, 7:13 PM
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Happens!
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