Playoff Watch: Projection says Clemson-Miami a CFP winner-take-all

While pundits disagree, the FiveThirtyEight model leans heavily toward the ACC having one CFP team.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Thu Nov 30 18:09:48 GMT-04:00 2017

One weekend of games. One College Football Playoff ranking.

That’s it, all that’s left between a wide-open field of contenders and the goal to stay playing for a national title.

FiveThirtyEight gives Clemson the best odds not only at making the Playoff (76), but also coming home with its second national championship in as many seasons (22 percent).

From there, the scenarios could get interesting.

The debate started earlier this week that a No. 1 Clemson team could survive a loss to No. 7 Miami Saturday – and hang on to a CFP spot. While some analysts are on board, analytics don't back that up.

With a loss and other favorites winning, the top-four by the numbers is Auburn, Oklahoma (both over 99 percent), Miami (90) and Ohio State (41). The Tigers aren't in fifth or sixth-best in that scenario either, with Alabama next (28) and then USC (22) and Clemson given a 17 percent chance of selection.

The best road with a loss is the chaos of an Oklahoma loss to TCU, Wisconsin loss to Ohio State and a USC win over Stanford, giving the Tigers a 30 percent chance. USC, at 39 percent, and Alabama, at 36, are still more likely picks. With a USC loss, the model knocks Clemson down to 27 percent and Alabama up to 48.

Sports Illustrated assesses Clemson as a team that wouldn’t “necessarily be eliminated with a loss.”

“With a loss to Miami, Clemson would fall to 11–2, but it would still have a lot to recommend it,” Chris Johnson writes, “including three wins against teams currently ranked in the committee’s top 25 (No. 2 Auburn, No. 22 Virginia Tech, and No. 24 NC State), two of which came on the road (the Hokies and Wolfpack); the highest-ranked victory of any team still in the CFP picture, if Auburn beats Georgia; and one of its defeats (at Syracuse on Oct. 13) partially offset by the fact that starting quarterback Kelly Bryant left with an injury before halftime.”

There will be plenty of movement regardless in the Sunday final CFP rankings (noon, ESPN), with five matchups of top-12 teams: Pac 12 title game – No. 10 USC v. No. 12 Stanford (8 p.m. Friday, ESPN), Big 12 title game – No. 3 Oklahoma v. No. 11 TCU (12:30 p.m., FOX); SEC title game – No. 2 Auburn v. No. 6 Georgia (4 p.m., CBS); ACC title game – No. 1 Clemson v. No. 7 Miami (8 p.m., ABC); Big Ten title game – No. 4 Wisconsin v. No. 8 Ohio State (8 p.m., FOX).

CBS Sports projects a Clemson-Wisconsin Sugar Bowl matchup, and also has Georgia knocking off Auburn to meet Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl.

After recent Miami Playoff picks, ESPN changed course to also project a Tigers-Badgers meeting in New Orleans, which is echoed by SI.

USA TODAY picks Wisconsin moving up to No. 3 with a Big Ten championship and Oklahoma to No. 2 with a Big 12 title, giving us a Clemson-Auburn rematch in the Sugar.

Speaking of rematches, SB Nation likes Alabama to edge Ohio State and take on Clemson in the Sugar.

Figuring there will be at least one upset, I think that comes in Vegas and not the rankings, with Wisconsin grinding out a win over Ohio State for a date with the defending champs Clemson in the Sugar. Oklahoma and Auburn then re-match their 2017 Sugar Bowl (a 35-19 Sooners win) in the Rose Bowl.