CLEMSON FOOTBALL

Clemson is in a group of seven teams that controls their destiny by winning out.
Clemson is in a group of seven teams that controls their destiny by winning out.

Playoff Watch: Clemson path clear, scenarios abound for CFP Four


by - Staff Writer -

No. 2 Clemson’s path to the College Football Playoff is simple. It’s just a matter of fighting for seeding now.

With under three weeks to the CFP selection, the Tigers are in a pack of seven teams that are given a 94 percent or better chance of making it by winning out (per ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight): Clemson (over 99 percent), Alabama (over 99 percent), Miami (over 99 percent), Wisconsin (99 percent), Oklahoma (98 percent), Georgia (94 percent) and Auburn (94 percent).

FiveThirtyEight explored some of the crazier scenarios down the stretch, where this weekend’s slate is light on big games but the rivalry and championship weekends ahead could throw a wrench into the committee’s selection process.

Their “doomsday” scenario placed Clemson and Georgia easily in the Playoff as conference champions, but proceeds to put seven teams within a 20 percent probability for making the Playoff Four. The scenario includes Wisconsin falling in a game like Saturday at noon versus No. 24 Michigan or at Minnesota next week and also losing in the Big Ten title game, as well as Oklahoma losing the Big 12 title and Auburn beating Alabama at home, next week.

In the scenario, the percentages give one-loss Miami and two-loss Southern Cal (current CFP No. 11) with the best chances (40), followed by one-loss Alabama (30), two-loss Oklahoma (30) and two-loss champion darkhorses in Ohio State and TCU (20), who are currently No. 9 and No. 12 in the CFP rankings respectively. There’s a reasonable chance in that being an ACC-SEC invitational with Clemson, Georgia, Miami and Alabama, but the pressure will come on including at least one more conference champion.

For Clemson, however, it’s just about getting there, and Dabo Swinney's Tigers don’t have the easiest path to New Orleans or Pasadena come Jan. 1.

SB Nation used an efficiency formula (S&P+) to forecast the next three weekend matchups, and those numbers give Miami a slight edge to represent the ACC.

The Hurricanes and Tigers are favored to win the next two weeks, and in Charlotte’s ACC title game, Miami is given a 54 percent chance at topping Clemson on a neutral field. There’s a four percent difference between Miami (37) and Clemson (33) winning out and making the CFP.

The model likes Wisconsin even less, rendering a 24 percent chance of finishing 13-0.

Georgia is projected a 27 percent chance of winning out, with their opportunity understandably easier against Alabama (54 percent) than Auburn (46) in the SEC title game, who they just lost to, 40-17.

Miami’s dominant win over Notre Dame is giving the Playoff projections around the web some pause on the ACC race.

CBS projects a Clemson-Oklahoma Rose Bowl, opposite Alabama and Wisconsin, but ESPN’s two predictions have Miami Rose Bowl-bound and Clemson headed to the Orange. Sports Illustrated is projecting a Clemson-Georgia matchup in the Orange Bowl. And SB Nation takes Miami making a run at No. 1, hosting and falling to Ohio State, with Clemson facing Wisconsin in the Orange.

Back in the CFP picks, USA TODAY likes a Clemson-Oklahoma Rose Bowl, but advances the Sooners to a title game matchup with Alabama.

Updating my projection, Alabama navigates a tough stretch run to take on Ohio State, which vaults from No. 9 with some help from the Crimson Tide (wins over Auburn and Georgia) and a top-five victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Clemson and Oklahoma also win out for another postseason matchup, this time in the Rose Bowl.

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