Inside Clemson's stretch run: Improved run game, defense guiding Playoff bid |
Clemson enters the final push with an identical record and the same goals attainable through 10 games as last year, arriving there in some different ways.
It was the 10th game in last season’s national-title run where the Tigers suffered their one defeat, 43-42 to Pittsburgh, facing a season reset before a finishing a second Playoff bid by downing Wake Forest (35-13 road win), South Carolina (56-7 home win) and Virginia Tech (42-35 win in Orlando). The No. 2 Tigers greet another win-and-in-the-Playoff scenario starting with The Citadel Saturday, then the trip to South Carolina and meeting No. 3 Miami in Charlotte’s ACC title game. Football Study Hall projects a 38-point win over the Bulldogs Saturday – and peering a week ahead, likes Clemson by double-digits over South Carolina (10.6 average margin). ESPN’s Football Power Index is heavy on the Tigers as well in those two games (99.7 win percentage vs. The Citadel; 83 percent vs. South Carolina), and goes one game further, placing a 67 percent win percentage versus the Hurricanes. How did Clemson reach this elite level again, where it's favored to make a third-straight Playoff? The 2016 Tigers were powered by the arm of the best quarterback in college football, with Deshaun Watson leading an offense that finished No. 2 in overall efficiency*, third in passing efficiency, fourth in passing success rate** (51.4) and seventh in overall success rate (49.5). Facing a tougher schedule overall (No. 3 SOS per ESPN; No. 23 last year), the 2017 Clemson offense has gone through the ups and downs typical to a QB transition, also factoring in injuries and a different kind of athlete at the top in junior Kelly Bryant. The Tigers currently rank 39th offensive efficiency, down 23 spots in pace of play from last season (31st) with an enhanced ground game and issues moving the chains passing. In 10 games, Bryant has almost eclipsed Watson’s rushing attempt totals in 15 contests (136 for Bryant; 148 for Watson; taking out sacks), averaging 5.5 yards per carry with nine touchdowns to Watson’s 4.9 and nine rushing scores. Clemson has three rushers over 500 yards for the first time since 1991 with Travis Etienne (617), Bryant (608) and Tavien Feaster (550), improving over 50 yards per game rushing year-to-year with as many 200-yard contests as 2016 (6), two more 300-yard games (2) and one more rushing TD (27). Nationally, Clemson ranks 11th in rushing efficiency and 17th in success rate (48.9). The caveat is the drop in passing efficiency, which shows up most in critical situations. Clemson is down 7.4 percent in pass success rate year-to-year and rates 127th in explosiveness*** (Compared to the rate of attempts last year, however, Clemson wasn’t all that explosive either, rating 94th). -- 2017 advanced metrics profile Clemson ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 15. Defense – 3. Special teams – 84. Overall – 4. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 39. Defense – 5. Special teams – 128. Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 18 (46.7). Defense – 7 (33.1). -- The QB-boundary receiver connection stands out most in comparison, as two top-12 NFL Draft picks in Watson and Mike Williams hooked up for a 58.6 success rate and 11 touchdowns on a 23.1 target rate in 2016. In some mutual inefficiency, Clemson QBs have targeted Deon Cain 21.9 percent of the time with a 49.3 success rate and four touchdowns. A bright spot in the passing game, Hunter Renfrow’s targets are up almost eight percent (18.3) and he’s improved eight percent in catch rate (76.8) – and almost two percent in success rate (62.5). The Clemson offense is just different this season, however, up 12 percent in run attempts on standard downs**** (62.5; 44th nationally) and up 6.5 percent on passing downs (35.66). Third-down success has been there (17th nationally), as well as some fast starts (17th in first-quarter efficiency). Why this season feels like a bigger drop-off may just be from how elite the offense was last season, as they rated top-15 in efficiency in every quarter (2nd-best in the second quarter) and top-16 in efficiency in the first three downs (No. 1 in third down efficiency). This season, Oklahoma – at No. 1 in offensive efficiency – is the only top-15 offense among the top-seven in the CFP rankings, with the other six ranking: Alabama (19th), Clemson (39th), Miami (18th), Wisconsin (35th), Auburn (32nd) and Georgia (25th). Brent Venables' Tiger defense has picked up the slack in the 9-1 run. The 2017 Clemson defense is outperforming the 2016 group in a myriad of categories: passing defense efficiency (1st vs. 4th), standard downs sack rate (1st v. 21st), passing downs success rate (3rd vs. 4th), passing defense success rate (4th vs. 5th), passing downs explosiveness allowed (5th vs. 43rd), defensive efficiency (5th vs. 6th), scoring defense (7th vs. 10th), rushing defense explosiveness allowed (8th v. 106th), standard downs efficiency defense (8th v. 23rd), rushing defense efficiency (11th vs. 25th), standard downs success rate (12th vs. 21st), rushing defense success rate (21st vs. 25th) and standard downs explosiveness allowed (38th vs. 95th). This year’s defense rates similar in havoc rate (TFLs and passed defended per play) except for the secondary, where it's down 30 spots (50th) with less pass breakups and interceptions but rating better overall in pass defense efficiency. In special teams, the obvious drop is in field goal efficiency (65th to 120th), which drags down the overall efficiency from 85th to 128th. Clemson has made the biggest strides season-to-season in punt return success (40th vs. 71st) and kickoff success rate (55th vs. 70th). * Efficiency measure used is the S&P+, a Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders metric that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. ** Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. *** IsoPPP metric, which Football Outsiders defines as looking at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component. *** Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs. (Unless otherwise noted, advanced stat figures are from Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders)
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