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Bracket Watch: Clemson's latest NCAA Tournament projections

Bracket Watch: Clemson's latest NCAA Tournament projections


by - Staff Writer -

Clemson met two of its tougher challenges of the season last week and dropped both games, but the wins before that stretch continue to boost its NCAA Tournament resume in at least one prominent metric.

The Tigers let one get away versus a KenPom top-30-rated Florida State in a 2-point OT loss, and they stumbled to the finish after a late-game rally versus KenPom No. 3 Duke. But over the weekend, they actually gained a seventh top-50-rated KenPom win with NC State cracking that top-tier after grabbing two road wins last week.

In all, Brad Brownell’s 20-6 Tigers own victories over teams rated No. 7 (North Carolina), No. 17 (Ohio State), No. 29 (Notre Dame), No. 33 (Florida), No. 36 (Louisville), No. 44 (Miami) and No. 49 (NC State). Another strong win in non-conference play came versus Louisiana-Lafayette in December (23-4 record; KenPom: 55). In the final four games of the regular season, they have the opportunity to add three more top-50 wins out of trips to Virginia Tech (34) and Syracuse (45) and hosting the FSU rematch (28).

How Clemson finishes will determine seeding the most, but how the NCAA Committee judges RPI will be something to watch this season.

Overall, Clemson is a solid No. 10 in the overall RPI rankings, but in the new grouping of wins, the Tigers’ record dropped to 2-6 versus current “Group 1” teams (Home versus opponents currently ranked in the top-30; neutral-site games versus top-50 teams; away games versus 1-75 teams). On the flip side, they are 8-0 versus “Group 2” teams (home versus 31-75; neutral versus 51-100; away versus 76-135), 4-0 versus “Group 3” opponents (home versus 76-160; neutral versus 101-200; away versus 136-240) and 6-0 versus “Group 4” teams.

If some of the major NCAA Tournament bracket projections are any indication, the Tigers are still in good standing going into the homestretch.

Both ESPN's and CBS Sports' Monday bracket projection kept Clemson as a 3-seed, each sending them to the Midwest Region with Xavier (24-4) as the top seed in the group.

Clemson NCAA Tournament profile

Record: 20-6 (9-5 ACC)

RPI: 10

Metrics average*: 13.3

Strength of Schedule: 21

Record v. RPI Group 1: 2-6

Average RPI of Wins: 121

Average RPI of Losses: 26

Bad losses (150+ RPI): None

Record v. current KenPom top-50: 7-4

Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 22 Florida (71-69 at neutral site), No. 18 Miami (72-63), No. 19 UNC (82-78).

Road/neutral record: 7-5

Last 10: 6-4

* NCAA Tournament Selection Committee average of result-based metrics RPI, KPI, and ESPN Strength of record plus predictive-based metrics of ESPN BPI, KenPom and Sagarin.

ESPN BPI Projections

At Virginia Tech: Loss (43.7 percent win chance)

Georgia Tech: Win (93.8)

Florida State: Win (73.3)

At Syracuse: Win (53)

Projected regular season record: 23-7 (12-6 ACC)

(Profile via WarrenNolan.com, KenPom and ESPN)

ACC Standings (as of 2/19)

SCHOOL CONF CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK

Virginia 13-1 0.929 24-2 0.923 W1

Duke 10-4 0.714 22-5 0.815 W3

North Carolina 10-5 0.667 21-7 0.750 W5

Clemson 9-5 0.643 20-6 0.769 L2

Virginia Tech 8-6 0.571 19-8 0.704 W1

Louisville 8-6 0.571 18-9 0.667 L1

NC State 8-6 0.571 18-9 0.667 W2

Florida State 8-7 0.533 19-8 0.704 W2

Miami 7-7 0.500 18-8 0.692 L3

Syracuse 7-7 0.500 18-9 0.667 W1

Boston College 6-8 0.429 16-11 0.593 L1

Notre Dame 6-8 0.429 16-11 0.593 W1

Georgia Tech 4-10 0.286 11-16 0.407 L5

Wake Forest 3-12 0.200 10-17 0.370 L1

Pittsburgh 0-15 0.000 8-20 0.286 L15

ACC Tournament matchups (as of 2/19)

(In Brooklyn’s Barclays Center)

March 6 (Tuesday)

Noon ET - (12) Boston College vs. (13) Georgia Tech; 2 p.m. - (10) Syracuse vs. (15) Pittsburgh; 7 p.m. - (11) Notre Dame vs. (14) Wake Forest.

March 7 (Wednesday)

Noon - (8) Florida State vs. (9) Syracuse; 2 p.m. - (5) Louisville vs. (12) Boston College/(13) Georgia Tech; 7 p.m. - (7) NC State vs. (10) Miami/(15) Pittsburgh; 9 p.m. - (6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) Notre Dame/(14) Wake Forest.

March 8 (Thursday)

Noon - (1) Virginia vs. Wednesday noon game winner; 2 p.m. - (4) Clemson vs. Wed. 2 p.m. winner; 7 p.m. - (2) Duke vs. Wed. 7 p.m. winner; 9 p.m. - (3) North Carolina vs. Wed. 9 p.m. winner.

March 9 (Friday)

7 p.m. - Thursday afternoon session game winners; 9 p.m. - Thursday evening game winners.

March 10 (Saturday)

8:30 p.m. - ACC Championship

(Games will be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and also ACC Network; times are approximate).

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