CLEMSON FOOTBALL

Wins like at Louisville have the Tigers in a position to recover from one loss to make the Playoff.
Wins like at Louisville have the Tigers in a position to recover from one loss to make the Playoff.

Advanced outlook: Clemson's Playoff chances? Win and in


by - Staff Writer -

Clemson’s loss at Syracuse acts as the Tigers’ lone mulligan on a Playoff path by the numbers.

Going into last weekend, Clemson was given just the fifth-best chance of finishing the regular season undefeated (22 percent), but the third-best projection to reach conference championship weekend with one loss or less (62).

A chaotic set of games in the top-10 around Clemson set up a clear path to New Orleans or Pasadena come late December: win and in.

ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight gives the Tigers a 97 percent chance of making the Playoff by winning out. That bumps up to 98 percent with an undefeated SEC Champion (Alabama or Georgia) and a one-loss Big Ten champion in Ohio State.

Does that happen? Currently, the Tigers have some work to do according to the model, with only a 29 percent projection, which is seventh-best behind Alabama (71), Georgia (38), Ohio State (34), Penn State (32), Wisconsin (32) and TCU (30).

ESPN wrote about the Tigers' chances Wednesday afternoon.

"The Tigers’ trip to NC State on Nov. 4 is easily their biggest obstacle to that; they win that game in 95 percent of our simulations that have them going to the playoff," ESPN's Neil Paine writes, "while they only win it 49 percent of the time in sims where they don’t make the CFP. (That 46 percentage point difference makes it the highest-leverage game left in Clemson’s season.) It should also be noted that these numbers assume that Clemson’s star QB Kelly Bryant is healthy; he was knocked out of the Syracuse loss but seems to be progressing quickly in his recovery."

Georgia replaced Clemson as the second-best odds overall to make the CFP this week, but still are given only an 11 percent odds at going undefeated into the postseason. Penn State (16), Wisconsin (16) and TCU (11) are also given less of a chance than the Tigers to win out.

The ACC’s only unbeaten, Miami, has a 12 percent projection to stay that way and a four percent at winning the conference crown. Clemson’s ACC championship chance dropped from 50 to 29 percent with one result.

ESPN’s Football Power Index assesses Clemson having the third-easiest remaining schedule of its top-10 teams with a 33rd-best remaining strength of schedule.

Under two weeks away from the first CFP rankings, the CFP FourCast says Clemson would be just outside the top-four with its current resume, trailing Alabama, Penn State, Georgia and TCU.

Toughest three games remaining (TeamRankings.com)

11/4 – at NC State – 71.9 win chance

11/11 – Florida State – 78.4 win chance

11/25 – at South Carolina – 84.9 win chance

Toughest three games remaining (ESPN FPI)

11/4 – at NC State – 66.1 win chance

11/11 – Florida State – 72.7 win chance

11/25 – at South Carolina – 80.4

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