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Replies: 18
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Orange Blooded [4356]
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Clemson BCS Scenarios
Nov 11, 2012, 9:06 AM
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As it appears today:
NC: KSU-Oregon
Rose: Nebraska-Stanford
Orange: FSU - Louisville/BE (Last Choice)
Sugar: Alabama vs At Large #3 (See List)
Fiesta: At Large #1 vs. At Large #2
BCS Rough Qualification Order:
Kansas State – Either NC or At Large
Oregon – Either NC, Rose Bowl or At Large
Notre Dame – Either NC or At Large; AQ if in top 8, will likely be selected if top 18 (probable)
Alabama – SEC 1 – Either NC, Sugar or At Large
Florida – SEC 2 Outside shot at NC or At Large… Project only 1 of 2 SEC teams eligible for BCS
Florida State – In Conf Champ
Nebraska – Rose Bowl
Louisville (or other BE?) – In Conf Champ
-X: Georgia – will fall out after loss to Alabama, likely out due to 2 team limit
-X LSU – Slim chance for BCS At Large… need UGA and FL to both lose, likely out due to 2 team limit
-X South Carolina – Slim chance for BCS, 0 when we beat them, likely out due to 2 team limit
?Oklahoma – At Large
?Stanford – Rose Bowl
Clemson
Currently behind us but with a shot:
-X Oregon State – Slim chance for BCS… auto out if Stanford in due to 2 team limit. Loss last night helps us a ton
-X Texas A&M –Slim chance for BCS at large, likely out due to 2 team limit. Not a threat b/c would push out another team
Things that help us:
•Oregon loss to OSU in the Civil War. This would put Oregon in the Rose Bowl and kick Stanford out, pretty much assuring us of an At Large Bid
•An Oklahoma Loss… would pretty much assure us of an At Large Bid
•A Florida State Win over Florida… helps in the computers vs. Oklahoma
Things that hurt us:
•Stanford win over Oregon. Likely puts Stanford or another PAC 12 team in the Rose Bowl
•Oklahoma running the table… they have a tough ride that would help their computer rankings: @ WVU, Bedlam OSU, @ TCU. If they win out, with their only losses to ND and KSU, they might edge us on SOS, so we need them to lose one
•FSU Loss to Florida… doesn’t kill our chances, but hurts our computer ranking
Anything I’m missing?
Message was edited by: TheBull®
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Orange Blooded [3710]
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Nice Work!!!***
Nov 11, 2012, 9:13 AM
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Associate AD [833]
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Win out = Sugar Bowl
Nov 11, 2012, 9:15 AM
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Clem$on = $$$$$
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Orange Blooded [2659]
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Nice work! could not read all but here is the cliff notes...
Nov 11, 2012, 9:30 AM
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WE NEED
FSU win out for SOS + Oklahoma to lose one more + US to win out = SUGAR Bowl
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Orange Blooded [2659]
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Oh, and + 1 for your work!!!! :)***
Nov 11, 2012, 9:32 AM
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Rock Defender [53]
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Trainer [27]
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Re: Nice work! could not read all but here is the cliff notes...
Nov 11, 2012, 9:40 AM
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The only thing I would add is the chances of La Tech sneaking into the Top 16 and being ranked ahead of either the BE or B1G champ and earning an Automatic Bid is still very much in play. That would essentially leave Clemson and others fighting for one remaining at- large bid. We need to be huge Utah State fans when they play La Tech.
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Orange Blooded [4356]
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They could be eligible, but it's a long shot. They would
Nov 11, 2012, 9:47 AM
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have to be top 12, or top 16 and ahead of Louisville/BE Champ or Nebraska/B1G champ.
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Trainer [27]
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Re: They could be eligible, but it's a long shot. They would
Nov 11, 2012, 10:19 AM
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Not sure it is as much of a longshot as one might think. Louisville will tumble in the polls following a bad loss yesterday. Decent chance that La Tech jumps them this evening. Especially given that their computer numbers were aided with the A&M win yesterday (their only loss on the year). I would predict that La Tech jumps UL this evening and is ranked #19. If they run the table including a win vs. Utah State who is currently ranked in the neighborhood of 25th by the computers, I would absolutely expect them to be ranked ahead of the BE champ and very much in play for top 16 depending on what others in front of them do. It will definitely be close if they run the table.
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Orange Blooded [2471]
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Point. I needed a breakdown.. thanks***
Nov 11, 2012, 9:43 AM
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Rose bowl does not have to take PAC
Nov 11, 2012, 9:43 AM
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If Oregon is in NC the rose bowl doesn't have to take #2 team. A top 4 Nd is very attractive to them especially if Oregon st and Stanford lose again. That would free up another at large.
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Orange Blooded [4356]
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Interesting point. If Oregon is in the NC, this kicks in:
Nov 11, 2012, 9:58 AM
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"For the games of January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl."
I actually think TCU met this requirement for them in 2011, and it reverts to the PAC 12 / B1G match-up now if I read it correctly.
It's starting to make my brain hurt:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
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Trainer [27]
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Re: Interesting point. If Oregon is in the NC, this kicks in:
Nov 11, 2012, 10:11 AM
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Interesting. That would seem to suggest that should La Tech meet the.requirements for an automatic bid, the Rose would be forced to take them. Gotta believe the Rose execs are huge Utah State Aggie fans.
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Rock Defender [58]
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Re: Rose bowl does not have to take PAC
Nov 11, 2012, 10:26 AM
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The PAC 10 and Big 10 ALWAYS pick their own.
ND might be more attractive, but Stanford will be the pick if Oregon is in the NC game
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110%er [7448]
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have to worry about La Tech stealing an at-large
Nov 11, 2012, 10:14 AM
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if they are in top 16 and ahead of Big East or B10 champ, they get automatic. That would be serious blow to our chances.
They were at 20 going into yesterday.
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110%er [7219]
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Re: Clemson BCS Scenarios
Nov 11, 2012, 10:19 AM
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Oklahoma is a pretender. Look at who they have played, and the results of those games. Baylor was close. They have no real quality wins save maybe Texas Tech. BC gave ND a better game than Oklahoma did. They have 3 tough games coming up. They may not win ANY of those games.
We just need to take care of our end.
Message was edited by: ClemTig®
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Fan [65]
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MY BCS Scenarios
Nov 11, 2012, 10:28 AM
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NC Oregon vs KSU
Rose- losing Oregon gets first pick
ND to play Nebraska
Fiesta gets 2nd pick because of losing KSU
OU vs Georgia
Sugar
Bama vs CLEMSON
Orange
FSU vs Louisville or Rutgers
The order they pick for at large would be ROSE, Fiesta, Fiesta, Sugar then Orange.
I think we need to hope the Ducks and KSU win out. Makes are BCS path easier.
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Fan [65]
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Orange Blooded [2013]
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Nebraska needs to win out
Nov 11, 2012, 10:28 AM
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If Louisiana Tech is ranked in the top 16 and finishes ahead of Nebraska they're guaranteed a BCS slot.
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