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Recruit [88]
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Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 9:36 AM
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Looking to encourage myself by proving BC has a D padded by stats against Howard and Maine...and discovered that the last 4 opponents averaged close to half of their average yards against them.
Northern Ill avg ypg 413 vs BC 153
Fl state avg ypg 432. vs BC 217
Duke Avg ypg 413 vs BC 228
WF. Avg ypg 369 vs BC 142
Clemson averages 432 ypg, so if stats hold, then we'll be right there with FSU at around 220.
We'll probably earn this one the hard nosed way, but what a great showing if we trounce them!
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Hall of Famer [21815]
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Re: Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 9:40 AM
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To get a true understanding, you should remove the BC game from their YPG average since you are comparing against it.
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Orange Blooded [2928]
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Re: Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 10:05 AM
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Yes, that may give you a better understanding, but that just makes the percentages lower. If you take out the BC game, their yds/game goes up. This then makes the percentage of their total points scored even lower.
W/O BC Yards (Avg yards per game):
NIU - 465
FSU - 486
Duke - 450
Wake - 414
Percentage of yds per game (without BC included in average):
NIU - 33%
FSU - 45%
Duke - 51%
Wake - 34%
That said, I think our offense is better than any of those teams. Also, I think our defense is better than any of them as well and will directly account for 10 points.
My prediction is 27-0. They may score a field goal, defensive points, or points on our backups, but I don't see them scoring on offense vs our first team defense. I'm actually optimistic that we will score more than 27 due to their offense being so bad, but their defense is very good.
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CU Guru [1127]
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Re: Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 10:51 AM
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It is important to note that FSU ran 57 plays. I think that we have played great considering the conditions the last couple of weeks. Louisville game was our worst offensive showing and it probably had something to do with the Thursday night game and that their D is still pretty decent. I think we run 70 plays. FSU i believe averaged 3.8 yards per play against them. I think we have a better QB, more balanced offense, and it is at home so we might average maybe 1 more yard. So at 70 plays and 4.8 yards that puts us at 336. Reasonable number. We are averaging a score every 77 yards (2159 total yards and 28 total scores-21 TDs 7 FGs), So maybe 4 scores this game. 3 TDs 1 FG so 24 points.
Using the FSU game, BC had 195. I believe they will end up in that ballpark. They are averaging a score every 110 yards. They shouldn't score more than once. There is a greater chance that if they continue to score at this pace that it will be a TD. 16 TDs 2 FGs.
Clemson 24
Boston College 7
Good chance of a shutout and we could hold them to a lot less since they are averaging 214 on the ground, 100 in the air. I believe there is a good chance they get around 150 total. 100 in the air probably on playaction and quick throws. 50 on the ground. Lots of over-analysis and haven't really double-checked any of this.
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Re: Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 9:48 AM
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I think we have a much more balanced offense than any of those teams.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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This is only BC's second road game of the year....
Oct 14, 2015, 10:12 AM
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and I firmly believe Clemson's home field advantage (at night) will have a HUGE impact.
Clemson 24
BC 3
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Orange Blooded [4302]
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You also have to consider that 3 of those games,
Oct 14, 2015, 10:13 AM
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FSU, NIU, and WF were at BC. The other was at Duke, not necessarily an intimidating environment. Now I'm not suggesting that BC has a similar atmospher to Death Valley, but I would guess it's probably in the top half (or at least in the middle) of ACC venues for crowd noise considering how poor so many others are.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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Uhhhh....no....it's not
Oct 14, 2015, 10:17 AM
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The atmosphere and crowd noise at BC definitely ranks in the lower half of the league
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Starter [352]
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nonetheless, that place has given our tigers fits...
Oct 14, 2015, 10:20 AM
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over the years. its another one of those places like bobby dodd stadium, or carter finley stadium, or byrd stadium for that matter, that some teams just don't do as well as one would think they should, and often get beat or come to within a heartbeat of getting beat.
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CU Medallion [64517]
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Clemson is 3 - 1 in its last four trips to Chestnut Hill....
Oct 14, 2015, 10:31 AM
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08 - Clemson won 27 - 21
10 - Clemson lost 10 - 16
12 - Clemson won 45 - 31
14 - Clemson won 17 - 13
The 2010 loss, Kyle Parker threw two picks (both in the 4th quarter) and Catman missed two FG's. We also had a costly roughing the passer penalty that extended a BC drive and a funbled kickoff that led to a BC score.
I do agree that the atmosphere at BC is similar to Duke and Wake. It's pretty dead which has an adverse effect on opponents.
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Orange Blooded [3510]
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Re: Padded BC D?
Oct 14, 2015, 10:43 AM
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I took your analysis one step further and eliminated both BC and lower division teams (note: "cream puffs" that are FBS were included).
Team - pass avg/run avg/total - vs BC Run/BC Pass/BC total - percentage reduced
FSU - 219/218/437 - 119/98/217 - 50%
NIU - 227/195/422 - 81/72/153 - 64%
Duke - 207/191/398 - 195/33/228 - 43%
Wake - 257/113/370 - 109/33/142 - 62%
In total teams passed for 44% fewer yards and rushed for 67% fewer yards against BC than they did their other opponents.
I don't know what all that means for our game but it is clear that BC has a tough defense.
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Oculus Spirit [97649]
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Our defense better show up strong because they will
Oct 14, 2015, 11:05 AM
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make the difference in this game. I think our defense, if they play well, can demoralize BC after enough time passes, allowing us a few TD's towards the end. I think our defense against their offense is going to be more effective than their defense against our offense. In other words, I think our defense matches up well with their defense. But our offense is better than their offense.
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