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Replies: 17
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Orange Blooded [3521]
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110%er [5082]
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what a cool site +1***
Nov 8, 2017, 9:26 AM
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Varsity [217]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 9:38 AM
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Don't put too much stock in a service that uses ESPN's FPI as part of their "statistical" process.
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110%er [6403]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 9:44 AM
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Crunching the numbers 
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110%er [5082]
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I find it interesting that if you click on the 'win out' for
Nov 8, 2017, 9:39 AM
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Notre Dame (and not for anyone else) their odds come in at only 66% for making playoffs - CU is at 99%
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Legend [15863]
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yeah - it depends on who else is 1 loss or undefeated
Nov 8, 2017, 9:44 AM
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I guess - plus it's still up the committee to decide
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 10:15 AM
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This site was also statistically projecting Hillary to win. Even on election night.
So take that for what its worth.
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CU Guru [1714]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 11:12 AM
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If I’m not mistaken, they had her at a 93% chance of winning at 4 pm on Election Day...
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Legend [17773]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 11:31 AM
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Had her statistically winning the popular vote. Which was accurate.
Also Nate Silver is correct more often than most statisticians.
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Orange Blooded [2883]
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So is that a
Nov 8, 2017, 12:40 PM
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statistical anomaly?
Go Tigers!!!
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 11:55 AM
[ in reply to Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician ] |
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Trump's own pollsters thought he'd lost after polls started closing in the East. Some who were close to him have said it looked like a funeral in the room up until about 9:00. Data was largely missing from the Midwest due to lack of polling in the run up to election day.
Also, people tend to misinterpret "likely winner" as "certain winner."
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 12:14 PM
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Dont think that's accurate. His team stationed in the middle of the country had it pegged internally. They "knew" before other pollsters caught on with exit polling.
https://www.wired.com/2016/11/trump-polling-data/
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CU Guru [1405]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 1:29 PM
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They knew they had a chance based on the issues that mattered to those voters and that that's where they'd win if they got it done. It's unlikely they ever had polls showing him up beyond the margin of error. What they saw was his message matching what rust belt voters wanted to hear. But in those states I doubt anyone considered carrying three blue states to be a foregone conclusion. Some maybe claim now that they did, but everyone is confident after the fact.
That didn't translate to the exit polling. Late afternoon and early evening numbers didn't look good. Even in the very first returns from Ohio and Florida, Hillary looked stronger than expected.
Based on the data available, statisticians did a very good job with the election. The popular vote numbers were nailed.
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Legend [16207]
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CU Medallion [51531]
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Losing at home the week before will do that to you.***
Nov 8, 2017, 11:33 AM
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Legend [16207]
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My point is that we aren't in any better/worse shape in 2016
Nov 8, 2017, 11:38 AM
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Very do-able but defense especially secondary is suspicious versus last year. And, pass accuracy has to improve.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Does everyone realize that they use ESPN's FPI ?
Nov 8, 2017, 12:20 PM
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You know, the metric that everyone here on TigerNet constantly ridicules.
"It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning."
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Scout Team [178]
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Re: Clemson's Odds National Champs - professional statistician
Nov 8, 2017, 2:37 PM
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Be wary, fivethirtyeight was bought out in 2014 by ESPN. That's why they use ESPN's FPI. It's just putting lipstick on a pig imo.
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