All the forecasts come from the same source

different forecasts... I honestly just think it depends if this hurricane tracks north like most are expecting (which is good for us) or.. if it takes a little harder easterly track and touches into NC/VA coast and gets us some rain from the "whip" of the arms.. I've heard talk of this other system but I'm not seeing it.. The rain from the other system is supposed to be out of dodge by late Friday night/early Saturday AM. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Don Julio or Juarez or whatever the name is heads on up the coast and steers clear of DV on Saturday.. NO matter what... I'll be there..

Most pessimistic... Weather.com (90% with rain all day) rainfall - 1 in.
Less pessimistic... Accuweather (70% cloudy with a little rain) rain fall - .4 in.
Better... WYFF 4 (60% light showers)
Best.. Fox Carolina (20% light showers)

78Clemson00

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Sep 30, 2015, 3:39 PM

They read the NWS discussion that comes out a few times a day. Unfortunately the NWS says about the Saturday forecast: "confidence plummets toward an all time low." So they are all just guessing right now:

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=GSP&StateCode=SC&SafeCityName=Clemson

Short term /Thursday night through Sunday night/...
as of 230 PM Wednesday...in situations like this...the Reader is
cautioned to not focus on any one particular model solution...
especially out beyond 48h to 72h. That being said...some compelling
evidence continues to mount with regard to the potential for a heavy
rainfall event late this week and over the weekend. The scenario
involves a complex interaction between a dynamic upper low that
receives a significant infusion of tropical moisture from Joaquin.
What is most troubling is that the 12z operational GFS and European model (ecmwf) are
nearly in lock step through 00z Saturday...which points to an
increase in confidence on the front end of the event as it starts to
unfold Thursday night and Friday. Middle/upper forcing will remain weak
initially as the upper low drifts southward across Alabama to the Gulf Coast...
but low level forcing chiefly in the form of moist isentropic lift
will gradually increase through the period. This should gradually
increase the precipitation probability while keeping the precipitation amts
relatively modest. Thus...the trend is upward with a likely pop
across the whole forecast area and increasing to categorical Friday
where upglide improves near the mountains/Blue Ridge...and the western NC
Piedmont. Temperatures were kept quite cool...well below guidance.

It is from that point Onward...00z Saturday...that the wheels may
fly off in different directions. The operational guidance diverges
significantly and rapidly...and the ensemble spread widens quickly.
The recent model runs show even more of a difference in outcome by
Saturday night with the track of Joaquin. As a result...confidence
plummets toward an all time low...but keep in mind we are dealing
with an event that is more than 72h out. There might be a tendency
to pay too much attention to the operational GFS with its track of
the tropical cyclone inland...eventually looping over the Carolina
Piedmont over the weekend. It would be wise to downplay this in
favor of the official NHC track for the time being. In that
scenario...we will still have to deal with the passage of the upper
low across the southeast...with its attendant deformation and
frontogenesis wrapping around/pivoting across the Carolinas. This
would be very unusual...as ordinarily the western Carolinas stay dry
when a tropical cyclone passes northward east of Cape Hatteras. Will opt for
a course of least regret...which is to raise precipitation chances into the
categorical range east to west Friday night and keep the very high pop
through Saturday. Probabilities drop steadily afterward as a measure
of uncertainty on the back end with how quickly the upper system
moves east and north and where Joaquin GOES. Precipitation amts could be very high
in this scenario...which could lead to significant flooding in some
areas. This would be especially true across areas where soil
moisture and stream flow remains high from recent rainfall. Have
followed wpc with the quantitative precipitation forecast. If this verifies...we will have to deal
with flooding...and an increased potential for slope failures and
debris flows over the NC mountains fortunately...at this time...we are
looking at a 4th period onset for the heavy precipitation...so we do not
need to entertain any watches yet. Expect many changes to this low
confidence forecast.

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Weather.. I've looked at diff places. All have drastically

Re: Weather.. I've looked at diff places. All have drastically

Re: Weather.. I've looked at diff places. All have drastically

All the forecasts come from the same source

In fairness, this is a wacked-out setup...

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