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Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration
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Tiger Boards - Clemson Football
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Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration

[4]
Jan 23, 2022, 2:27 PM

of how these high school rankings pan out.

Here's the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft with Rivals.com recruiting rankings:
1. Trevor Lawrence - 5 star
2. Zach Wilson - 3 star
3. Trey Lance - 2 star
4. Kyle Pitts - 4 star
5. Jamarr Chase - 4 star
6. Jaylen Waddle - 5 star
7. Penei Sewell - 4 star
8. Jaycee Horn - 4 star
9. Patrick Surtain - 5 star
10. Devonta Smith - 4 star
11. Justin Fields - 5 star
12. Michah Parsons - 5 star
13. Rashawn Slater - 3 star
14. Alijah Vera-Tucker - 4 star
15. Mac Jones - 4 star
16. Zaven Collins - 2 star
17. Alex Leatherwood - 5 star
18. Jaelan Phillips - 5 star
19. Jamin Davis - 3 star
20. Kadarius Toney - 3 star
21. Kwity Paye - 3 star
22. Caleb Farley - 4 star
23. Christian Darrisaw - 2 star
24. Najee Harris - 5 star
25. Travis Etienne - 3 star
26. Greg Newsome - 3 star
27. Rashod Bateman - 4 star
28. Payton Turner - 2 star
29. Eric Stokes - 3 star
30. Gregory Rosseau - 4 star
31. Jayson Oweh - 4 star
32. Joe Tryon - 3 star


TOTALS
5 star - 8
4 star - 11
3 star - 9
2 star - 4

Out of ALL of those 5 and 4 star recruits, 40% of the first rounders are 2 and 3 star recruits.

??????

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Yes, BUT

emoji_events [9]
Jan 23, 2022, 2:49 PM

When you take into account the total amount of five, four, three, and two star recruits out there, your emoji would look more like a ??.

33 five stars per class = 24.2% hit rate!!
332 four stars per class = 3.3% hit rate
2,087 three stars = 0.43% hit rate
10,044 other ranked players = 0.039% hit rate.

So yeah…… stars kinda matter.

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Data reference

[1]
Jan 23, 2022, 2:51 PM

Sorry, I meant to reference this in the first post.

https://lastwordonsports.com/collegefootball/2021/07/12/what-do-those-star-ratings-mean/


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Thank you, size of 3* pool always gets lost....


Jan 23, 2022, 3:18 PM

when someone attempts to make the "stars don't matter" argument. Also, the 85 scholarship limit compounds the importance of the 4&5 *s-

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Re: Yes, BUT


Jan 23, 2022, 3:32 PM

Stars only matter if you lose so let's hope the only stars we are worrying about in December will be wearing Tiger Paws in Charlotte.

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Re: Yes, BUT


Jan 23, 2022, 4:03 PM

I'm glad somebody gets it.


Guy's stars aren't the end all be all but they are a good indicator. If stars didn't matter Bama, tOSU, and UGA wouldn't obsess with getting 5*s, not that Clemson doesn't look at ranking but is choosier in it's offers.

Stop pretending like it doesn't matter, it does. The stats clearly back this up.

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what are the %'s of 2 and 3 stars recuits


Jan 23, 2022, 2:50 PM

total.

In other words, what percentage of 3 star recruits are drafted in the first round vs what percentage of 5 star recruits are drafted in the first round.

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Re: Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration


Jan 23, 2022, 2:53 PM

So if I am gathering this correctly, you're saying life is like a box of chocolates?

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Re: Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration

[1]
Jan 23, 2022, 3:03 PM

I wish I could claim such an insightful and exceptional quote

But yes.

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Do stars predict a recruit’s success? (link)


Jan 23, 2022, 2:56 PM

https://www.thedailystampede.com/2021/11/9/22757052/usf-college-football-recruiting-star-rankings-signing-day-info-news-average-nfl-draft-trends


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Not your ? but the Blue-chip ratio predicts the teams....

[1]
Jan 23, 2022, 3:26 PM

that have a shot at winning the CFP. Minimum 50% of the roster made up of 4&5s.

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Don't misunderstand or misconstrue what this illustrates.

[1]
Jan 23, 2022, 3:03 PM

It illustrates that 2 and 3 star players sometimes develop into outstanding, NFL 1st round players, while some 5-star players just don't pan out. That shouldn't surprise anybody.

When it comes to recruiting, it doesn't mean that you can be consistently successful at a high level without getting your fair share of 4 and 5-star talent, because you can't, or at least nobody is. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Notre Dame, UGA, etc. are all great at identifying and developing 2 and 3-star guys with potential. With only so many 4 and 5-star guys to go around, you have to be able to do that, but make no mistake, they go after the 4 and 5-star guys first, for the most part. To be elite, it takes both.

EDITED to include "consistently" successful


Message was edited by: Smiling Tiger®


Message was edited by: Smiling Tiger®


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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken


Re: Don't misunderstand or misconstrue what this illustrates.


Jan 23, 2022, 3:04 PM

How many 4 and 5 stars does Cincinnati have?

Updated: I just looked. On their entire roster, they have 0 5-stars, 7 4-stars, and the remaining are 3-star and lower.

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How many times have they finished in the top 5?


Jan 23, 2022, 3:14 PM

Top 10? I take nothing away from Cincinnati; they are a talented and well coached team. Any such team could catch lightning in a bottle like they have though; everything came together for them, but it's not likely to be sustained over time because they can't replenish the talent as easily as say, Alabama or Ohio State.

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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken


And ... they had 7 4-stars this past year.***


Jan 23, 2022, 3:26 PM



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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken


Looks to me like the worst teams drafted the 4 and 5 star


Jan 23, 2022, 3:09 PM

Players.

Show me the results in 3 years.
Right now all I see is that the teams that were good last year were likely to still be good this year.

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Re: Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration


Jan 23, 2022, 3:36 PM

Oh, by the way, if you don't think MarineOne is right, pull the rosters of the 4 NFL teams playing this weekend and look at how many players are not from the Top 10 schools in the final poll. Stars don't matter and are only remembered if they fail.

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Re: Recruiting - The first round of the NFL Draft is the best illustration


Jan 23, 2022, 3:44 PM

ETN was a consensus 4*. We've been over this multiple times. Rivals had him as a high 3* but he didn't camp much and other factors.

How many on your list were rated higher by the other services. That matters too. Plus the QB's that were fcs or even d3 - they're rarely get ranked any higher than 2 or 3. And entrance grades matter too.

I get your point that Dabo is good at identifying talent, but he's had his share of recruit and development busts also. Josh Belk, Hollywood Logan. Shaq Smith 5*.

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