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She sure owned the libs
General Boards - COVID
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Replies: 4
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She sure owned the libs


Sep 14, 2021, 10:38 PM
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Some of you will say "It's just one death of 10M kids". Others will say "It wouldn't have matter if the mom was vaccinated because she still would have passed the virus on".

But here's the rub ...

1) If you're pro-life, then one child death is too many. Don't even come at me.
2) If you're a statistician and say under 10 year old deaths are still non-existent and only happen to obese kids with pre-existing conditions, i provide this example of the increasing chances of your perfectly healthy child dying.
3) If the mom had been vaccinated, she would have lowered her chance of catching covid by, anywhere from 60-90% in the first place. Again if you're pro-life, shouldn't we do ANYTHING we can to help keep a child's heart beating?
4) If the mom had been vaccinated, she would have lowered her chance of catching covid by, anywhere from 60-90% in the first place. If you're a statistician I revert to point 2, healthy young children are now dying from Covid.


"Harwood said she now regrets not getting vaccinated. "I was one of the people that was anti, I was against it," she told The Daily News. "Now, I wish I never was.""

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/4-year-old-texas-girl-dies-of-covid-after-unvaccinated-mom-contracts-virus-she-was-beautiful/ar-AAOqTPR?ocid=winp1taskbar

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I read articles like this and shake my head


Sep 15, 2021, 5:16 AM
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Here's something. How many kids have killed mom or dad or granny? You rarely hear about those cases. Saw an article the other day. Kid gets covid. Gives it to mom and dad. Mom and dad both die. Now there are like 4-5 kids who recovered fine...as they are statistically in little danger. They're just orphans now.

But going back to your article.... It's not consistent with the science. It goes back to the definition of "infected". In almost all cases, unless you're being screened for some reason, almost all cases are people who get symptoms who then go get tested. The vaccines are specifically 60-90% effective at preventing SYMPTOMATIC infection. A vaccinated person can spread it without symptoms... Everyone can.... But the vaccinated person is more likely to never have symptoms. Israel has documented a fully vaccinated person spreading covid at a school party who spread it to 70 people. Yes, even vaccinated people with no symptoms can be super spreaders. In the Israeli case kid's parents had returned from a trip to Europe kid stayed in Israel. All vaccinated, kid and his parents. Parents got tested upon return since they had traveled... Standard procedure in Israel. Parents were positive with no symptoms. Kid never got symptoms at all and didn't travel so he wasn't tested. This was back when Israel had very few cases. When they contact traced the party they learned the only possible exposure was the healthy vaccinated kid of the healthy but infected vaccinated parents. None of this would have been known without the standard travel testing of the parents and contract tracing at the party.

I'd argue it's likely noting would have changed if mom was vaccinated. It all started with mom getting symptoms first. Doesn't mean mom spread it to her. They could both have been exposed by someone else Iand one took longer than the other to develop symptoms. And had mom been vaxxed she may not have ever had symptoms and at that time I guess she would feel better that she didn't give it to her daughter. When she still could have.

Best part is while all this is happening in Israel the CDC decides to tell vaccinated Americans they can take their masks off. And they kept that policy knowing the data from Israel. And they only changed course on it when they finally reproduced the same scenario in a study in New England like a month or more later.

And it's such a shame. There's vaccine misinformation both supporting them and opposing them. They're good. They are safe. They keep you from getting severely ill. They keep you out of hospitals for the most part and are very good at preventing death. But selling them with misinformation is no better than opposing them with misinformation. A vaccine would not necessarily have saved the child's life in the article. May not have changed a single thing. A vaccine only helps keep you out of a hospital or from dying. It's not going to keep you or your children from getting "infected". And that's still a darn good reason to get it. If the vaccines stopped infection then they would end covid. That's not going to happen.

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Re: I read articles like this and shake my head


Sep 15, 2021, 8:46 AM
Reply

1) Here's something. How many kids have killed mom or dad or granny? You rarely hear about those cases. Saw an article the other day. Kid gets covid. Gives it to mom and dad. Mom and dad both die. Now there are like 4-5 kids who recovered fine...as they are statistically in little danger. They're just orphans now. - That's the point of mask mandates in schools, social distancing and lock downs. To help protect the elderly and individuals with pre-existing conditions. Did you just miss 2020??

2) But going back to your article - this goes to my point 4. Yes people who are vaccinated CAN get covid and CAN spread it BUT, you eliminate the chance anywhere from 60-90% of getting infected in the first place and the ability to spread is much lower there after. So I didn't say this wouldn't have happen. But statistically the odds would have been significantly lower.

3) I'd argue it's likely noting would have changed if mom was vaccinated - Ok. Well mom says she gave it to her. You want to argue with her? Or are you just trying to justify your position?

4) A vaccine would not necessarily have saved the child's life in the article - You are correct but to my points 1-4:

- If you are pro-life isn't 1 death of a child too many?
- If you are looks at statistics, the odds would have been significantly lower had she been vaccinated.
- If you are a "only pre-existing conditions people die" i present a situation where that is not true
- If you are a "it only affects adults" i present to you a case where that isn't true


Overall, I am not presenting mis-information ... I am not denying that POTENTIALLY this child still would have died had her mother been vaccinated.

What I am saying is

1) Covid is becoming more dangerous
2) Covid is not increasing deaths in healthy children
3) The vaccines make the odds of getting sick, hospitalised and dead significantly lower
4) A simple shot likely would have given a 70-95% better chance in saving this child's life

If I am wrong in anything I have stated above I am happy to discuss.

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#2 is not accurate.


Sep 15, 2021, 10:10 AM
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That figure, 60-90% you use....is it coming from this data?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7037e2-H.pdf

In Israel, where 62% of people are fully vaccinated with mRNA vaccines, the same ones we use, they are having record CASES. If the vaccine cut transmission 60-90%, cases would be falling there. But they aren't. England has a slightly higher vaccine rate. Cases are not falling there either. Hospitalizations are still low in both places, relative to cases, relative to us. You missed completely the part where I said (It goes back to the definition of "infected".)

People generally go get a test when they get a symptom (illness, infection, whatever you want to call it - sniffles, cough, fever, aches, whatever...symptoms). A sufficient viral load present at a ct of around 32, means they have covid. They become a "case". A positive test result. And this is the same vaccinated or not. No one randomly goes and gets tested, but those few who do because they are screened (like in the Israel example I gave), shows covid infection, covid spread, shedding of the virus, does not always coincide with a presence of the disease (symptoms). But only with random testing (or through screening) can you learn the percentage of people still "infected" and spreading it with no symptoms. We don't generally do screening testing in the US very much. Other countries do it much more.

Imagine a virus that literally bypasses your entire immune system....t-cells, b-cells, antibodies (vaccine or natural), or whatever, just turns them all OFF, for 6 days. Then around day 6 your immune system turns on, and finds you have an infection, a massive one, as the virus has spent 6 days replicating totally uncontrolled. THIS is the point where "cases" happen, probably 99% of them. This is the point where you start to have symptoms. Go get a test, and then find out if you are "infected". BUT, if you have very good antibodies, or the vaccine is working well for you, or you have prior immunity which could be even better at riding the virus, at day 6 you may not ever get symptoms. Your vaccine/natural antibodies may attack the virus so successfully you never have a symptom, you never know you were infected. In this case, you have become infected, spread the virus for 6 days, never felt bad, never got a test, and recovered. Meanwhile, 70 kids at your high school party got infected because of your infection you never knew you had.

The vaccines kick in on day 6 (with Delta) give or take a day, prior immunity as well. Without a vaccine, your immune system still kicks into gear on day 6, prior infection or not. The vaccine antibodies, or natural ones, are not even called up until day 6 to be used. As such, you don't have symptoms until day 6 of being "infected and spreading it". HOWEVER, from day 6 forward, vaccines make a massive difference, unless you have prior immunity. Even then they help. That's where you fight off the virus and recover. But that initial period explains everything you need to know about covid. Influenza does something similar, but not nearly as well, or for nearly as long. But this mechanism of immune suppression at the very beginning of "infection" is why influenza is still around today, and is why covid won't go away. It is also why VACCINES DO NOT STOP OR EVEN LOWER TRANSMISSION. They do lower SYMPTOMATIC infections by 60-90%.

Knowing this....you then know a "breakthrough" infection are only those who develop symptoms fighting off the virus, after days of the virus being present and replicating. Your viral load is highest during those first 6 days, you spread it the most those first 6 days, you don't have a clue you have it, those first 6 days. All of that can happen and if you only get a few sniffles, or blow your nose a few times and never get tested or know you're sick, you have still spread it.

So then you read that article and see what people still believe. We were initially told they would end covid. When that didn't happen, a certain subset of people just said well, they don't work, screw it. Those people are dying now. I'm pro vaccine, and pro most legal mandates for it. I think you're an idiot not to take one in almost all scenarios. But just because I support vaccines, does not mean I support misinformation about them in the name of supporting them. They help. They're like 95% effective at keeping you alive and out of an ICU/Death. But selling them as a means to stop the spread, and prevent an "infection" is wrong. They help prevent symptoms, and lessen symptoms when you do get them, and decrease severity and GREATLY improve your odds of staying out of a hospital or morgue. In fact, vaccines actually make things MORE dangerous for those unvaccinated as they allow a net increase in transmission among people who otherwise don't know they have it or are spreading it. A lot of vaccinated people are walking around today thinking they have allergies, and that may be all they have. Same person, unvaccinated, would be home in bed. And this is the same reason for the quarantine rules people hate. People on this very site have said you can't spread it without symptoms. The opposite is true. It is also why healthcare workers have been spared from getting covid as originally feared. By the time you go to a hospital, you are FAR less infectious, even though you feel horrible.

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Re: #2 is not accurate.


Sep 15, 2021, 11:02 AM
Reply

1) For data (link at bottom) - 1st article states ~73% effectiveness in infection protection, 2nd says 53.3% (which i think your link says as well) So my apologies, i should say 53-90% (as other studies have shown Moderna has significantly higher protection than Pfizer/J&J/etc so we shouldn't lump it all together).

2) We disagree on the infection timeframe of days 1-6.

I am not saying vaccinated people can't spread Covid. Because they can.

But to the stats above, with Delta, at a minimum, vaccinated people can expect AT LEAST a 50% less chance of catching Covid in the first place. As well, the ones infected while presenting viral load shedding at a somewhat similar level as unvaccinated in the first 1-5 days, vaccinated individuals viral load shed drops significantly thereafter unlike unvaccinated people who continue to high levels to days 9-11. Again, the vaccine cuts this down by roughly 50%.

Now you are saying days 1-6 are equal in infection. From what I have seen, it's days 3-6 that matter (as days 1-3 the virus is spending the time infecting the host primarily so chance of replication is less than the peak 3-6 days in all people). So again, this is where we differ on stats and approach.

I don't think we are a million miles apart here. In the original article cited, the mother wasn't vaccinated and the assumption is that likely means a large portion of their community likely wasn't either (Just like in Israel where Covid is spreading rapidly in the Unvaccinated community). Due to this status, the chance of Delta spreading in the community was exponentially higher than if they were vaccinated. Yes?

I did mistate that children weren't dying above. But they are now. Vaccination of adults can help prevent this (as well as moving to vaccinate children when we can)


I do agree vaccinated people can spread Covid. I have stated this in all my messages. What I AM saying is that vaccination

- significantly lowers your chance of catching Covid in the first place
- significantly shortens the sickness (thus shedding) time period
- (We agree on the rest)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2108891


https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm


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General Boards - COVID
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