I agree with your numbers. I think this season could be really special. This Defense is going to be one of the greatest in school history I believe. Just need the offense to be a little better than average. The 2023 season could see a step backwards due to the loses on Defense.
It may seem pessimistic but I'll rank the chances to make the CFP with a 4. I pretty much give us a 40% chance to make it to the CFP by default these days, knowing that there's going to be 2 SEC teams, 4 non-SEC conf champs, Notre Dame and one group of 5 team in the discussion.
Once in, I'll just go with coin tosses.... A 5 on winning a semi and a 3 on winning it all. This team seems to be close in talent to our recent championship contenders but with one or two more questions that need answering before they're ready to play championship ball. I guess I just expect and hope that our Tigers are in the conversation over the next 5 years. Nothing I see indicates that we're a shoo-in nor a pretender in that timeframe.
I believe Clemson has a 9-10 chance to make the playoffs over the next few years, but too early to forecast winning it all for me lightbulbbill® ... a few thoughts on your interesting post ...
- 2016 and 2018 were amazing and very different yrs. 2016 was the year the great DW4 overcame a defensively great Bama team who was better than younger Clemson team at 15-17 positions. 2018 was the best all-time Clemson team with CW42, Power Rangers, Boulware, Isaiah, Mullen, ETN, JR8, Tee, TL16 and more. Clemson was the best of the best on college field in 2018. - Both 2016 and 2018 had tremendous QB play. That is THE common denominator I believe Clemson needs to be the best of the best as Bama, Ohio St & UGA typically out recruit Clemson on sheer 4 and 5-star numbers. - So 2022 QB play remains a big question mark. No more to say as subject has been well vetted. But 2022 is key since Bresee/Murphy/Simpson/TD13 could very well be cashing NFL checks in Spring 2023. My belief is strong QB play with mobility & accuracy can turn ordinary OL and WR play into above-average. With 2022 Tiger Defense, above-average Offense means playoff opportunity. - 2023 is hard to predict based upon QB play, OL recruiting/portal and breadth of 2023 defensive rebuild. But I love our defensive depth and recruiting.
A strong 2022 season will no doubt place Clemson in a great position for the years to come ... Dabo knows this very well. Go Tigers!
I think this defense is more talented than 2018. I also think our OL will be vastly improved allowing a three headed monster running attack. That plus healthy wr corps and a true slot wr will help take pressure off DJ. If we can get lucky and not have to face an elite offense in cfp we can win it. If we face an elite offense DJ needs to be better than I have ever seen him play and not sure that happens.
It all depends on the offense. These days you can’t shut people out so we have to have some scoring. DJ may break out and he may not. I hope Dabo doesn’t wait too long to make a change if necessary. One loss and we may be doomed for NC chances plus we have 2 ultra important games early in the season.