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Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)
Tiger Boards - Clemson Football
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Replies: 52  

Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 29, 2022, 10:36 PM
Reply

Long story…Husband and I purchased a home two years ago in one of those communities where houses are right on top of each other. Originally we thought we’d love it. Lots of kids for our kids to play with and we have lake/boat access as well. The older our kids are getting (9 and 7), the more we really realize we need a big yard! They are extremely active and love being outside. Plus, kid next door is a terror and has no understanding on manners or privacy. We had to wait until we owned for 2 years to avoid capital gains tax. Now that we can sell, interest rates are climbing which means our mortgage would be a lot higher! My question is, should we wait until next Summer and pray that interest rates are lower. Or do we sell, rent an apartment/house and see how this market plays out for a bit. Hate to throw money away renting. We are all set to list in two weeks and my realtor of course is pushing us to list and says rates are only going to go up even a year from Now. It’s hard to tell if she’s looking out for our interest or hers since she’s looking to make easy money. I know it’s hard to predict the future/market but I am so lost. Sorry for the long post…and I know it’s a football board. Been chatting with y’all for almost 20 years and you haven’t failed me yet.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[2]
Jun 29, 2022, 10:53 PM
Reply

Check with Spud on here.

2022 orange level member flag link


Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

emoji_events [7]
Jun 29, 2022, 11:54 PM
Reply

If rates go down next summer you can always refinance. If they go up you will be happy with the rate you got.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[2]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:12 AM
Reply

Jimbo's spot on. You don't have a crystal ball, and rates could easily be higher this time next year.

Conversely, housing value is at an all time high.

2022 purple level member flag link

Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[4]
Jun 30, 2022, 12:40 AM
Reply

Don’t see rates going down. House prices are high too. My wife is a home loan originator. Dead in the water right now. If you’re going to pull the trigger do it now and lock in a fixed rate on your purchase, and be prepared for a smaller than usual profit on your sale. Other than that, stay put. Know this might not help but it’s not really a seller or buyer’s market right now.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)


Jun 30, 2022, 12:51 AM
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Don’t see rates going down. House prices are high too. My wife is a home loan originator. Dead in the water right now. If you’re going to pull the trigger do it now and lock in a fixed rate on your purchase, and be prepared for a smaller than usual profit on your sale. Other than that, stay put. Know this might not help but it’s not really a seller or buyer’s market right now.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:33 AM
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I'm not an expert, but rates going up or down will affect how much you can get for your current home as well as how much you can buy another for in the future.

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Interest rates don’t affect home values. Not directly.

[2]
Jun 30, 2022, 12:39 PM
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Home values are based on supply and demand. When an appraiser does an appraisal on your house he doesn’t care what the interest rates are. The value of the house is based on recent sales in the area for a similar sized and type house.

Interest rates are not high. The hysteria over interest rates going up is a perfect example of recency bias. People only think interest rates are high because they were irrationally and insanely low for an extended period of time because of the Federal Reserve and the government sticking their hands into the economy.

Historically speaking interest rates right now are still insanely low. Back in the 70s people were paying as much as 18% or more for a mortgage. In the 80s and 90s people routinely paid 10 and 12%. When I first got started in the mortgage industry in the 90s I remember when the rates started going down and we were refinancing people at 7% and consolidating their debt and saving them hundreds of dollars a month. One guy I saved $1000 a month. People are happy to refinance at 7%. Excited!

So no. Interest rates are not high. They’re actually still low if you understand the history of interest rates.

The problem is because of government intervention and federal reserve intervention we have seen insane amounts of inflation and now housing prices are four times as much as they were in the 80s. Therefore even the slightest change in interest rates can make a big change on your payment because housing is so less affordable today compared to the past.

Real estate is still about location location location. Some parts of the country are declining while other parts are growing. People are leaving California New York New Jersey the Midwest. Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida are booming!

If there is a slowdown over the next 12 to 24 months it’s gonna be because of the economy, not interest rates. But if you want a house in the south that house will be worth more money five, 10, 20 years from now. Values may level out even decline slightly in certain markets, but if you’re not investing in land and real estate in the south you’re missing out.

Real estate is the single easiest and fastest way to wealth in America. For the average citizen. The stock market is rigged and even if you’re a Great investor and get 200% return over a five-year period that’s really not a lot of profit if you had 10,000 or 20,000 to put into the market. You can take that same amount of money and use it as a down payment on an investment property or a bigger nicer house for yourself in a better neighborhood and that will be your retirement account in 20 or 30 years. Certainly a big part of it.

Most self-made millionaires in America did it primarily through real estate. Most millionaires, and there are millions of millionaires, the bulk of their net worth is the equity they have in their house.

Everyone should read the book “the millionaire next-door.”

I have a BS in finance from Clemson and an MBA and I’ve been a mortgage broker for almost 30 years. I invest in real estate personally and I work with a lot of investors.

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: Interest rates don’t affect home values. Not directly.


Jun 30, 2022, 1:16 PM
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Thanks for the feedback! We have been looking for homes in our area (Lake Wylie, SC) and we can’t seem to make an offer quick enough. Can’t compete with cash offers. We’d likely have to rent a house or apt and I also hate the thought of throwing money away when we could be investing into our current home. Too bad we can’t predict the future right?!

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Re: Interest rates don’t affect home values. Not directly.


Jun 30, 2022, 2:46 PM
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I dont see a time coming that you will be able to sit back and not have to move quickly in lake wylie, tega cay, fort mill, that entire part of York County.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

emoji_events [10]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:37 AM
Reply

No one knows where the housing market and rates are going to be a year from now. We have seen cycles but, this one is different. Investors are placing above asking cash offers on houses. Unless you can pay cash, you may not be able to purchase another house for awhile. Renting is a nightmare too. If you can fine one, are you going to be happy in an apartment for a couple of years? If the answer is no, I would stay put.

PS. I raised two boys. Unless you have acreage, you will not have a big enough yard for your kids. Take them to a nearby church, park, or school playground to throw balls, etc. They will be driving in a blink and the yard will be less important.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:38 AM
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Find not fine

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:45 AM
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Tigergirlga, thanks for the insight about this boom being different with the investors buying. I bought a town house on the water at Lake Oconee in 2017 and if I told you what they are going for now most would think I was dreaming. I was trying to figure out why the sale prices are soaring. This makes a lot of sense.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:41 AM
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This is what I’ve been trying to tell people for a while now.

I have a friend that’s being casual in a new house hunt thinking it’s a normal home market. He’s found that unless you bring cash, no inspection, over asking price, close in 30, etc, then you don’t stand a chance on anything decent.

I’m helping him look now, but the plan is for me to put up the cash to buy the house and do the renovation, then he will buy it in his traditional way from me…a win-win for both of us. I feel like I’m on one of those home shows on tv.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:54 AM
Reply

These dynamics are already unwinding rapidly in the current interest rate environment.

2022 purple level member flag link

Interest rates are not high. That’s media hype.


Jun 30, 2022, 12:51 PM
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Interest rates are still historically low. This is a perfect example of recency bias.

People only think rates are high because they were insanely and irrationally low for an extended period of time. People thought that was a wonderful thing. No. It’s not a wonderful thing. Not to get into the weeds of the federal reserve and monetary policy, but interest rates being as insanely low as they have been for the past 10 years is a big part of why the economy is in such a mess today. It’s a big part of why houses cost four times as much if not more now than in the 80s. It’s a big part of why my four years at Clemson cost $20,000 and now one year at Clemson cost $35,000.

Interest rates could still be 2% but if housing prices keep climbing as fast as they are people aren’t going to be able to afford a house anyway. Regardless of how low interest rates are.

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: Interest rates are not high. That’s media hype.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 1:01 PM
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I didn’t say they were historically high. I correctly stated that their recent upward movement has slowed down mortgage applications and the industry on whole. Perception is reality in this case, as Americans and our own gov’t are hooked on lower interest rates that have been held there for so long, the recent policy change is having an immediate effect.

2022 purple level member flag link

I have a loan now that is basically a cash deal that allows

[2]
Jun 30, 2022, 9:48 AM
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buyers to compete with true cash buyers. I wish I would have had it a year ago....

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You don’t have to have cash.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 12:57 PM
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But you do have to be preapproved. Not prequalified. Preapproved. And you are competing against cash buyers in certain markets. Certain neighborhoods. You’re competing against people from the Midwest and up north that sold their houses at insanely high prices and they can now come south and get a bigger house for less money and pay cash. But that’s not every buyer.

Housing prices are being shoved up in sanely by fundamentals, supply and demand, but also in the south companies coming in and buying properties because they know the growth for the next 20 to 50 years is going to be in the south. People are leaving California, New York, New Jersey, the Midwest, and moving to Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida. It’s a mass exodus into the south.

This is the unfortunate side effect of Boeing, Volvo, Mercedes, BMW, etc. moving into your state. Yes they bring great jobs and for every job they create there’s probably another 10 or more that gets created but there are tremendous downsides to that. The environment, urban sprawl, housing prices, and the cost of living among the obvious.

2022 orange level member flag link

Pre approved does not compare to a cash offer.***


Jun 30, 2022, 4:08 PM
Reply



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I’m saying you don’t have to have cash to be able to put in an offer.


Jul 1, 2022, 1:53 AM
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But you do have to be preapproved not prequalified.

But at the end of the day people are going to take the most money. If I offer cash and you offer more money and you’re getting a loan most people are going to take your offer because they want more money. It’s all cash to them.

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: I’m saying you don’t have to have cash to be able to put in an offer.


Jul 1, 2022, 2:42 AM
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This is simply not true. Bringing cash with no appraisal contingency is the preferable offer in many cases. If you finance, the home must appraise or the buyer must bring more cash to the table. Add underwriting, possibility of denail, etc. All of that adds to the risk profile.

Add to it that cash buyers can close as soon as title comes back rather than 30-70days, and this is why a cash offer in reasonable range of a financed one will always win out.

Cash is still king on a home offer.

2022 purple level member flag link

Honestly...

[4]
Jun 30, 2022, 7:38 AM
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I don't see the economy improving very much over the next two year under the current white house administration. Failed policies from an administration that has no idea what its doing and, frankly, no idea how to fix it. Interest rate will continue to climb making home ownership less affordable for many Americans. It's all good though since we aren't seeing any more mean tweets.

2022 orange level memberbadge-donor-25yr.jpg flag link

Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


In November

[2]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:01 AM
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There is about to be a red tsunami, which means rates will likely drop because Biden will lose control to push things through the house and senate, essentially losing control (which is a good thing for the economy). If you want to really capitalize wait til 2024/5 when a republican is in office. House prices will at worst hold firm where they are and likely continue to increase value. Hold it for a couple more years if you can.

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I wouldn’t be too confident in thst red wave as there


Jun 30, 2022, 9:28 AM
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Are plenty of ignorant sheep being led by the nose by biased media.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:15 AM
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I don't think interest rates will get any lower by next summer and will only be higher. The sooner you sell the higher the price you'll get for your house before interest rates go up again and drives down demand making it less affordable for someone financing. Have your new home selected and interest rates locked-in and ready to close on as soon as you sell your house or you may get trapped without a place to buy. As someone else said, you can always refinance down the road if and when interest rates go down.

2022 white level member flag link

Interest rates in the south aren’t going to affect the housing market that much.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 1:04 PM
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The economy over the next 12 to 24 months will be the biggest factor. Interest rates are a part of the equation, but right now housing prices in the south are skyrocketing because of good old fashion fundamentals. Supply and demand. The south has been growing like crazy for years and that’s only speeding up because of the insane politics of the left. People are leaving blue states and moving to red states particularly Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. People aren’t going to stop moving south just because of interest rates. When you have more buyers than you have available properties it doesn’t matter what the interest rate is especially when So many of these buyers are coming from up north and out west and paying cash or putting down large down payments which means they’re not as affected by the interest rate.

What people in the south don’t recognize is, everything is relative. For people coming from California and New York and New Jersey white looks expensive to us is super cheap to them. We think housing prices are insane. They see bargains. People are moving from California to Texas and basically the money they’re saving off of taxes alone is paying for their house within five years. And they’re buying mansions on 5 acres of land for $1 million. But they’re saving that much just by relocating. They don’t care about interest rates. They see bargains.

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: Interest rates in the south aren’t going to affect the housing market that much.


Jun 30, 2022, 1:22 PM
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You’re right about that! My in laws are from NY and moved here a few years ago. They paid more per month in taxes than most here pay for their mortgage.

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Re: Interest rates in the south aren’t going to affect the housing market that much.


Jun 30, 2022, 2:55 PM
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That is because they are able to use those state taxes as a federal tax deduction.

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That’s actually completely overblown.


Jul 1, 2022, 1:58 AM
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Deducting state taxes is a deduction not a credit. It’s not dollar for dollar. Also when you consider how much more expensive housing and cost of living is up north moving south you have a tremendous savings regardless of taxes. This is one of the reasons it’s so incredibly stupid to have a federal minimum wage. $15 in South Carolina is not the same thing as $15 in California and New York. For that matter $15 an Charleston is not the same thing as $15 in Orangeburg. It’s just dumb that every economics study has proven that it actually result in people losing jobs and hours and benefits being cut. Bernie Sanders learned that the hard way when he started paying $15 and then had to cut staff and reduced hours. People particularly on the left are brainwashed and most people are economically ignorant

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:19 AM
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Great advice everyone! Thank you so much!

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I tell my clients all the time. You never want to buy or

[3]
Jun 30, 2022, 9:52 AM
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sell, when you feel like you HAVE to buy or sell.I litteraly tell them,"I don't want you to wake up 90 days from now and say,'What have I done?'", if that makes sense. I wouldn't let my Realtor push me into doing something I am not fully on board to do.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)


Jun 30, 2022, 10:22 AM
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one thing to consider is where are going to buy new home? you can sell your current home but can you afford to buy a house with a larger yard in same school district? Are you willing to move to another school district?

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 8:36 AM
Reply

In my view the FED’s recent tightening and increases to interest rates are already having an impact on the housing market. Even though the problem statement HAD been inadequate supply driving prices upward, higher rates are now shrinking the demand side of the market as higher interest rates immediately impact affordability.

The interest rate impact to mortgage backed securities is a side affect of the FED base rate increases, and although mortgage rates generally follow, the policy has really started to put the brakes on the housing market along with goods and services nationally. I think this will lead to an intermediate top in mortgage rates, followed by a subtle short term decline as the market stabilizes.

It’s hard for me to see The FED’s actions(after extensive inaction) resulting in anything other than at least mild recession. When that happens, we’ll see credit tighten and rates drop back down. Along with it will go housing prices. I don’t expect a free fall, rather a mild pullback as we’ll still be stuck with the reality and impact of all the money we’ve printed, and a higher inflationary environment, making all asset classes preferable to cash.

2022 purple level member flag link

Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 9:39 AM
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I'm not so sure demand is dropping off that much yet in extremely hot markets like Greenville especially in the 250k or less range.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)


Jun 30, 2022, 9:47 AM
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Agreed. That entry level pricing will be the last to dry up. It’s already been happening on jumbo loans for awhile now.

2022 purple level member flag link

Wow, you can still buy stuff for 250k up there?

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 10:04 AM
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Here in the Charleston area you can't buy a dilapidated shack for 250k.

2022 white level member flag link

Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 9:31 AM
Reply

Interest rates are not going down anytime soon. The price of houses will probably start to fall in the coming months. If you sell now you will get a high price for your house but you will have to buy high as well. I would sell now and consider the pricing a wash but you will get a better interest rate. Good luck. Moving does suck.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 9:40 AM
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You need to get a house with a yard. Your boys need a place to play - where you can keep an eye on them. Interest rates are not going to come down over the next year. Inflation, interest rates, and waning consumer confidence are already starting to make house prices come down. Sell and get a place where your family is comfortable. You won't regret it. Good luck, God bless!

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)


Jun 30, 2022, 1:27 PM
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Thank you ??

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 10:28 AM
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If you are that unhappy sell, buy and then refinance when rates drop. You will just have to suck it up til rates drop again. Or if you can deal with the terror next door wait til rates drop but who knows when that will be.

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Re: Not football related but asking for advice. (Housing market)

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 10:31 AM
Reply

This an interesting thread. Good discussion.

I’m wondering why so many feel so strongly that interest rates will be higher a year from now. The mortgage industry is a market that has to function, and contrary to some local market activity, the housing market has been grinding to an abrupt slowdown. It’s clear that the Fed’s policy decisions are having an immediate impact. This is evident in the drop in mortgage applications. Wells Fargo just provided guidance this morning that their mortgage business revenue will be 50% lower in Q2 vs Q1. That’s profound.

These changes are all happening rapidly in real-time. If you’re relying on anecdotals as recent as 6-weeks ago, that’s old data.

My strong bet is that rates may climb a bit further in the short term, but they will be lower in 1-yr.

2022 purple level member flag link

I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 1:14 PM
Reply

Real estate is local and regional. South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas are booming and they’re going to keep booming. Things may slow down but they’re not going to crash. It’s gonna be bumpy for the next 12 to 24 months but we’re not gonna see a crash like 2008. Actually that crash started in 2006 but people only knew about it when everything blew up in 2008.

People aren’t gonna stop relocating from California the Midwest and up north because of interest rates. And interest rates now are still historically low. As I’ve mentioned in other posts people think interest rates are high because of recency bias. The problem is not interest rates but the inflation in housing.

Wells Fargo is looking at the nation as a hold. If you look at only the south which is all that matters to us your comments aren’t very accurate. Also you have to consider one of the big drops in mortgage applications because of rising interest rates is not the purchase market but refinances. But that was already coming to a end anyway because almost everyone that wanted to refinance had already refinanced.

The reality is if you want to buy a house in the south by it. Houses will be worth more in the south 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now. Interest rates fluctuate. You can always refinance. I often get people to do a 30 year fixed with a 10 year interest only period. It’s a nice balance. But you can also get a lower interest-rate by doing an ARM. Wealthy people and savvy investors use ARMs all the time.

You can’t predict the future in the short term but we know in the south what the long term looks like. Hesitating to buy a house right now doesn’t do you any good. You’re better off getting that house now. Because interest rates will certainly fluctuate, but long-term housing values are going up!

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.


Jun 30, 2022, 1:33 PM
Reply

Again, you’re responding to a point I’m not trying to make. I agree with many of your foundational arguments about the regional nature of the market, but simply put, you’re elegantly wrong.

The market is slowing across the board. If I’m making any sweeping generalizations about interest rates, it’s because of the sweeping, generalized(standardized), national nature of their control and impact, whether psychological or not. That impact is being felt right here, right now in FL where I live. It’s also happening in almost every market, currently impacting the higher end more so.

My curiosity that you responded to and as I clearly stated, is why the majority thinks interest rates will be higher in a year. I provided an argument as to why I believe they’ll actually be lower, a contrarian POV. That’s interests me, so I’d like to hear a coherent argument as to why I may be wrong.

2022 purple level member flag link

Re: I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.


Jun 30, 2022, 2:48 PM
Reply

I don't see the housing market slowing down because of rising interest rates. I live in the NJ/NY area and also own a home in Anderson. The real estate market is still on fire in both places. Is it supposed to slow down because of higher interest rates? Sure, it's supposed to because the perception is that higher monthly payments will prohibit potential buyers from becoming homeowners.

Here's the reality and it's the first thing you learn in Economics class, Supply and Demand. In the NY/NJ area there is just not enough of available homes for sale. Part of the problem is that consumer prices are rising rapidly and homeowners are staying put. Another issue up North is that there is not much available land left to build on, so there are not many new homes being built. This situation has become a problem for would be buyers. There's just not enough homes for sale to satiate demand.

Here in Anderson there is also more demand than supply. There's land to build on, but as Low Country mentioned, the influx of buyers from other states has kept demand far outpacing supply. I'm not in the mortgage or housing industry, but i have been working in the financial services business for close to 40 years. It's a different ballgame. Higher interest rates have not slowed the housing market. It's basic supply and demand .

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Re: I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.


Jun 30, 2022, 2:57 PM
Reply

Here is the national reality upon which the FED makes policy.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/15/mortgage-demand-is-now-roughly-half-of-what-it-was-a-year-ago-as-interest-rates-move-even-higher.html


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3848472-wells-fargo-mortgage-income-could-fall-almost-50-in-q2-cfo-says



Lol! And you should definitely call up to CEO’s of all these mortgage companies and let them know they’ve all got it all wrong on these layoffs.
https://www.mpamag.com/us/news/general/mortgage-industry-stung-by-more-mass-job-layoffs/411353

2022 purple level member flag link

You can post all the news articles you want. .


Jul 1, 2022, 2:46 AM
Reply

It doesn’t matter. Real estate is local and regional not national. And again as I stated earlier one of the reasons mortgage applications have dropped precipitously is because people stopped refinancing when interest rate started going up. That has no effect on the housing market. But anytime rates start going up refinancing dries up. That was already happening before interest rates went up but it really escalated with the Fed increasing the prime rate.

And again interest rates don’t affect supply and demand. Interest rates are not the primary reason for the slowdown if there is any in purchase applications. It’s the economy and people being scared of what’s gonna happen the next 12 to 24 months.

None of this affects people moving from California up north. Because they’re selling their houses up there and making so much money because of the appreciation over the years that they can buy houses down here for cash. They’re selling their houses and moving here paying cash and still have tons of money left in the bank.

Correlation is not causation. Interest rates going up is not affecting the purchase market that much. It’s other factors. Like inflation in the housing market and fears for the economy in the near term.

I can take you to subdivisions with hundreds of houses planned here in the Charleston area and before they even get the infrastructure in place and lots ready to be built on every lot is sold. Normally they don’t even put lots on the market until they’re ready to be built on. Now you can drive through subdivisions in the lowcountry that are not even close to being ready for houses to be built and every lot has been sold. Supply and demand!

2022 orange level member flag link

Re: I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 3:04 PM
Reply

Try this for a moment-

Let’s keep it simple and say you owe $250,000 on the house, Principle and interest on that loan;

30yr fixed-
At 2.77% = $1023/mo. August-2021
At 5.2% =. $1373/mo. June-2022

If you don’t think this would change someone’s calculus on a home purchase, there’s nothing I could say to convince you.

2022 purple level member flag link

You are absolutely correct. And to your figure, add 300 or

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:05 PM
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400 more a month in gas, 200 more a month in groceries at least...my gas bill is about 600 a month more than last year

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Re: I think you’re making some sweeping generalizations.

[1]
Jun 30, 2022, 4:16 PM
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Well of course refis and new mortgages will decline with higher interest rates. I guess i'm just not understanding your statement that the market is slowing across the board. If you are talking about mortgage refi and origination, then sure, I can agree with you. If you are talking about demand for housing and prices softening, I will not agree. A neighbor of mine just sold his house last week for 10% over asking price. That is the new normal even with higher interest rates. Again, it comes down to supply and demand, just not enough available homes to sate the demand. I happen to agree with you that interest rates will be lower at this same time next year. However, housing prices will not be lower.

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Dude you’re not getting it!.


Jul 1, 2022, 2:53 AM
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In a traditional stable real estate market you are correct. Interest rates make a difference. Not in today’s market. Not in the south. You don’t have people selling one house and buying a bigger house. You don’t have people moving from West Ashley to Mount Pleasant in any great quantity. The market in most of the south is being driven by supply and demand with buyers coming here from out west the Midwest and the north. People that can get a bigger nicer house in the south for a fraction of why they could get a house for in other parts of the country. They’re selling their houses and come here and buying cash or putting buying with large down payments. I am a mortgage broker. I’m dealing with buyers every day. These buyers come in from other parts of the country are routinely putting down 20 to 50%. Many others are buying cash. And have you seen the rents lately? It’s still cheaper to buy a house than rent. Significantly cheaper in many markets.

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I’m sorry but you’re the one that’s wrong. .


Jul 1, 2022, 2:35 AM
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Florida is a different market than the other states I mentioned. Although it is seeing housing inflation for the same reasons as the states I mentioned because of the mass exodus from California the mid west and up north.

If I’m missing your point maybe you should realize that you were poorly stating your point. I’m addressing precisely what you’re talking about. If I’m getting it wrong then you’re wording it wrong and doing a poor job of Making a specific or cohesive point.

Here in South Carolina where I am a mortgage broker and have been for almost 30 years and a real estate investor and I work with lots of real estate investors real estate is not slowing down. Instead of a dozen people putting in an offer on a house only six people are doing it. That’s not really slowing down now is it?

And by the way I lived in Florida for about five years late 90s early 2000s. I’m very aware of that market as well. And I was license for a while as a mortgage broker in Florida. Florida is almost like three different states. There’s North Florida which is basically southern Georgia. There’s Central Florida. Then there’s South Florida. And even South Florida is like two different markets. The south East Coast is very Latin, Canadian & Yankee. The south west coast is very white & midwestern.

And again you can’t look at an entire state. Different parts of Florida are going to have different supply and demand. Different parts of South Carolina are going to have different levels of supply and demand. Go to Orangeburg you can get bargains everywhere. Florence many other parts of the state. Where real estate is hot is on the coast and along the I 85 Corridor. Despite insane amounts of growth in the upstate and along the coast for the last 20 years Columbia was extremely stagnant. But the last few years Lexington County has started blowing up.

My parents live 70 miles from me. I live on James Island they live on Lake Marion in Eutawville. For decades the only housing prices that really went up around the lake were houses on the water. And even houses on the water on Lake Marion were valued a fraction of what they would be worth in Greenville or Charleston. Now, however, Lake Marion, Holly Hill, Eutawville, are exploding. More houses have been built in that area in the last 18 months than the past 10 years combined. Why? Volvo and Mercedes.

People didn’t want to live on the lake until they retired because it was a little bit too far to commute to jobs in Charleston or Columbia. Now with Volvo and Mercedes on the outskirts of the Charleston metro area just west of Summerville on I 26 you can live on the lake and be not more than 30 minutes or less to those good paying jobs.

That’s not gonna slow down regardless of interest rates. Neither is the exodus of people from out west and up north. Housing prices in the south are a reflection of supply and demand.

Again in the south any slow down in real estate is going to be because of the economy not interest rates. And interest rates have a little affect on the economy in general. It’s all about inflation and consumer confidence. That’s why the economy took off when Trump got elected. Obama was anti-business. Trump was pro business. Consumer confidence is easily 50% or more of what happens with the economy.

As far as interest rates a year from now. I have no idea. Like I said I’ve been a mortgage broker for nearly 30 years. You never know what’s gonna happen with the interest rates.

It’s not interest rates affecting what’s going on. It’s the economy. People are very nervous about the economy right now. Inflation. Gas prices. But people are moving from up north and out west don’t care about those things because they’re still saving a fortune by relocating to the south.

The FED is also completely wrong. They often are. Interest rates don’t have anything to do with inflation. Look at the 1970s. Inflation ran like wildfire and interest rates on mortgages were 16 to 20%. Look at the incredible amount of inflation we’ve had over the last 10 years despite the ridiculously low interest rates. No. Inflation comes from the Fed pumping liquidity into the market.

Pull up the M2 money supply chart and look at the 1980s until today. You will see an exponential growth in the M2 money supply since the 1980s. Then look at the inflation chart for college Tuition, housing, and healthcare over that same period. They are almost perfectly correlated. Also pull up the Dow Jones industrial average since the 1980s. It almost perfectly correlates as well.

What do housing, college tuition, and healthcare have in common? Besides insane amounts of inflation over the last 40 years, weight outpacing any other inflation, what they have in common is heavily regulated by the government and heavily subsidized by the government. Anything the government gets involved and they screw up. Anything they subsidize and regulate has ridiculous amounts of inflation.

FYI I tend to be a contrarian myself in many ways but some things are what they are. What you see is what you get.

Getting back to interest rates. Next year? I’m actually with you. I think they will be lower. Because the Fed is jacking the prime rate up too much too fast. They think that will cool inflation, but it won’t because that’s not what caused inflation. Again far too much liquidity from Fed policy as well as government subsidies and other government interventions in the markets.

Unfortunately I think the incompetent idiots in Washington are going to crash the economy so next year They will be forced to lower interest-rates again foolishly thinking that will help the economy rebound. When it’s their policies and interventions and manipulation of the M2 money supply as well as policy issues that are hurting the economy. Not interest rates.

These people are completely incompetent. Then again if you wanted to intentionally crash the markets, crash the economy, to get more people dependent on the government, looking incompetent would be the way to do it. Covid and the ridiculous policies by the Democrats certainly didn’t help. That plays a part in supply chain issues but not the bigger issues in the economy. Actually California policies in regards to the ports are affecting a lot of the supply chain issues. Cargo ships are still lined up trying to get in the ports but they’re running into issues because of ridiculous California policies.

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Check your tmail.***

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Jun 30, 2022, 4:02 PM
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