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All-Pro [654]
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NIL & SC equals new NCAA Football video game
Jun 24, 2021, 9:15 AM
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I don't know how NIL is going to work out, but I feel extremely confident Clemson University will lead the way in doing it right & sharing opportunities.
One of the arguments I have seen a lot against NIL is the elite players will get potentially millions & the vast majority of players will get nothing.
The EA NCAA Football game will pay every player, though, for one example. That alone feels worth celebrating. With the O'Bannon case, players got a little over $1,000 each, and that was from a lawsuit rather than direct sales or market share.
It could be one example of many, & frankly I wouldn't be surprised if Clemson deliberately finds more opportunities like it that benefit the entire team.
Plus, you know, we also get NCAA Football back.
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Orange Blooded [2763]
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NCAA Football 2014 sold 1.5 million copies
Jun 24, 2021, 10:05 AM
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Let's assume each copy sold for $60 and that 50% of that was profit, so $30. That's not uncommon for a video game after distribution fees, platform royalties and retailer margins. That means $45M in profit. Seeing as how games are still $60, we don't need to account for inflation.
There are 130 teams in Division 1, with 85 scholarship players each, for a total of 11,050 players. Let's say a QUARTER of the game's revenue ($11.25M) went to the players for NIL.
That's just over $1K per player, and that's being generous with the numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than that. So no, bringing the game back with kickbacks to student athletes for NIL won't pocket them more than that lawsuit did. Considering they already get annual stipends between $2.5-4.8K depending on the school, the game will only make a small difference in players' pocket money.
So even though I'm not against paying players for NIL, I do firmly stand by the prediction that we will be able to count the D1 football players making over six figures in endorsements on two hands. Trevor likely would have been the only one from the ACC last year. The backup offensive linemen in the Sun Belt would be thrilled to get a grand from the video game; nobody else is gonna give them anything.
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All-Pro [654]
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Great info, plus new consoles
Jun 24, 2021, 10:49 AM
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Good breakdown there. Thanks for that.
Just to add some thoughts to it, new consoles are selling new games for $70.
That could help, but what if, for example, EA decides they have to or should sell the game for, say, $80 or even $100?
I'd gladly pay $100 for NCAA Football, especially knowing a significant portion is going to the players themselves. It's interesting to think about----I'd absolutely pay extra for a Clemson edition of the game, know what I mean?
I digress---you're right about any revenue getting to the backup o-line from the Sun Belt, & finding more of those opportunities could be great, even if they're rare.
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110%er [8507]
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Re: NCAA Football 2014 sold 1.5 million copies
Jun 24, 2021, 11:22 AM
[ in reply to NCAA Football 2014 sold 1.5 million copies ] |
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Those estimates seem very low. NPD, which is a leader in retail analytics, has the gaming industry at $49B last year for content alone. This included initial game purchases, digital, and in game purchases. They don’t list the actual sales for each title as it’s a confidentiality condition that they hold with the publishers. The results show that Madden ‘21 was #4 in 2020 overall in a $49B industry for revenue. If a CFB game is anywhere near as popular as a pro football game you would probably need to add another zero to the estimates listed above.
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All-Pro [654]
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Re: NCAA Football 2014 sold 1.5 million copies
Jun 24, 2021, 11:50 AM
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You're not wrong---it's likely more than we know and perhaps will be more than we can imagine.
To his point, even the lowest-possible data going back to the last version of the game two console generations ago is still relevant; if every player on every team got $1100, that's great.
If they got $3k or more, wow. It's gonna be interesting, for sure.
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Orange Blooded [2763]
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It's true that retailer cuts are going down
Jun 24, 2021, 11:59 AM
[ in reply to Re: NCAA Football 2014 sold 1.5 million copies ] |
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due to a huge increase in digital sales, a lot of which are sold directly though the platform on which the game will be played, eliminating royalties as well. But even if you doubled my numbers, $2K for each player is still a drop in the bucket compared to the money the schools already spend on them.
Madden always sold better than NCAA Football, so I don't think my numbers are too far off. The NFL is way bigger in cities and overseas than college ball. The first few years of NCAA Football (if we get it back) will definitely outsell '14, but it will level off.
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All-Pro [654]
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Curious about the next version of NCAA
Jun 24, 2021, 5:30 PM
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Great point. Made me think about something.
Madden comes out every year.
I don't expect NCAA Football to outsell Madden any given year. But after a 2-generation gap, I'm sincerely curious how well the next NCAA game sells. It certainly won't have a small ad campaign (or interest outright).
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Orange Blooded [3058]
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Re: NIL & SC equals new NCAA Football video game
Jun 24, 2021, 1:56 PM
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I don't think the concern is a player is going to make millions. The concern, if I understand all this, is players are going to be swayed into signing at a school where some rich alum has offered to make the player the "face" of the business. Give the kid $100k to promote a local business. How could Clemson or any other school make that equitable?
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Orange Blooded [2030]
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Re: NIL & SC equals new NCAA Football video game
Jun 24, 2021, 7:45 PM
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I agree with your concern Dawg. Basically, all the highly touted five star recruits coming out of high school will be like free agents in the professional sports world. It will become a bidding war, facilitated by the players agent. Is that the environment that we all are looking forward to with college football. I know I’m not, but I’m old fashion. I think allowing opportunities for student athletes to earn some money is a great idea, but unless there are proper guard rails set up around it, it could potentially get quite ugly.
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