even worth the cyber-ink it's printed with? Look at this DeMarkus Bowman situation, for instance. He was THE No.1 back that EVERYBODY wanted to get their hands on coming into college. Yet, here he is in the transfer portal for the second time. Yesterday, I mentioned Ryan Linchicum, who is currently lost on our depth chart. And he was THE NUMBER ONE RATED PLAYER IN THE NATION AT HIS POSITION, according to the "Star" makers.
Seems to me that the Star System has no way to measure motivation, or heart. Some kids have an internal drive to be great, and some must be lacking that very essential part.
But, another strange thing that I have also noticed. The "Stars" seem to linger, because there have been many cases of a lackluster college career not seeming to knock down a players NFL Draft stock. Maybe the NFL GMs or Head Coaches think they can "fix" whatever was lacking that the college coaches could not.
IMHO, though stars are not perfect they are right much more than wrong. Linemen are the toughest to judge because many times in HS they are playing against much smaller kids. Bowman showed flashes of greatness here, but his grandfather died and he wanted to play closer to home. Not sure what happened at UF. But you are right, many times the kids don't make it because they don't have the heart or drive and in some cases they lose focus on what is important and enjoy the college life a little too much.
Yaknow most people fail to be great at whatever it is they are doing. Average is what it is.
I have not done the math myself, but I suspect many have. 4 and 5 star players are more likely to be very good college players than 2 and 3 star guys. 4 and 5 star players are more likely to play the pro game than 2 and 3 star players.
Of course there are the Kirklands, Grady Jarrets and Hunter Renfrows out there. Of course the immeasurables play huge dividends for some guys. But if you have to make 25 bets a year, your odds of winning are better if you concentrate on 4 and 5 star players. And it counts bigly if you can evaluate well the guys who got less attention.
Is there a better way of mass-evaluating kids? I have no idea, and until they figure out how to measure intangibles we've got what we've got.
It reminds me of going to baseball combines when my son was in HS. You'd see all of these nice looking athletes that scouts tend to fawn over, meanwhile some of the best players get looked over. My point is that some kids just play better (when it matters). During recruiting combines it's the big-flashy-looking kids that garner the most attention where things like "Want To" and "Football IQ" can't be measured.
It has worked as a guide for coaches to look at their film to see if the player is worth their hype, and that can save tons of time on where the suspected best players are around the country. Just imagine how long it would take coaches to scout, and find the best players around our country, and elsewhere....
Well a HS Center may be dominating kids that are 50 lbs lighter than him. Going from that to playing guys bigger and stronger is a big leap and it can be tough to determine which kids will be able to do it and which won't. And RBs are always tough to predict. Sure things like size and speed are pretty tangible metrics but a guy like Bowman, who had an amazing HS highlight reel of him running Away from defenders may not be able to actually make someone miss well enough to ever be a good college player. Same thing happens when trying to evaluate which college players will success as pros
Stars are generally based on 2 things - IMO. 1. Skill sets - measureables. You can’t fake speed. 2. Stats.
A third to me is who is recruiting them and the buzz. If Bama or Clemson, etc are talking to a kid, somehow the stars go from 2 or 3 to 4.
Too often the stats are smoke and mirrors. Supported by strong teammates, etc. Other times, kids peak in high school or are not willing to pay the price in college to move forward. Then, simply, injury. They get injured and have a tough time coming back and then buried on the depth chart.
I agree, heart, etc can drive a kid. Renfro, Grady J, etc.