Paw Master [16888]
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2023 playoff rankings (long and tedious)
1
Sep 19, 2024, 10:05 AM
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I posted some of this info in another thread, but used final season rankings instead of final CFP rankings. With 5 slots reserved for conference champions, that leaves 7 slots this year.
Per final CFP rankings, these were the top 12 teams who were not conference champions (plus Liberty, the top G5:
6 Georgia (12-1, 8-0) a
7 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1)
8 Oregon (11-2, 8-1) a,b
9 Missouri (10-2, 6-2)
10 Penn State (10-2, 7-2)
11 Ole Miss (10-2, 6-2)
12 Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2) b
13 LSU (9-3, 6-2)
14 Arizona (10-3, 7-2) b
15 Louisville (10-3, 7-1) a
16 Notre Dame (9-3)
17 Iowa (10-3, 7-2) a
23 Liberty (13-0, 8-0)
a = lost conference championship game
b = playing in different conference this season
So Michigan, Texas (b), Washington (b), Alabama and Florida State claim 5 spots. Who would the other 7 have gone to? I guess Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Missouri and Penn State would have been locks. So that is 10 slots, with 4 going to 2024 B1G teams and 3 going to 2024 SEC teams. Who would the other two teams be? I believe Liberty would be an automatic qualifier, so that leaves 1 from the 11-17 group. Would the last slot have gone to Ole Miss or Notre Dame?
I recognize that two of the conference champs are in new conferences this year, but Texas and Washington would have made it, anyway. So 4/5 SEC, 4 B1G, 1 ACC, 1 B12, 1 CUSA and maybe ND.
I also recognize that every team in this listing except Notre Dame and Liberty played conference schedules that were weaker than what this year's conference schedules will be. I am guessing that all but the top two teams in the B1G will have one more loss this year than last year, that all but the top 4 SEC teams will have one more loss, and that every Big 12 team will have one more loss. I am guessing that FSU and Louisville's recordes would not have been affected by our new additions.
So with this year's schedules, the top 4 from last year are still in, plus FSU (LOL), Arizona (as B12 champ) and Liberty. That is 2 SEC, 2 B1G, 1 ACC, 1 B12, and one CUSA. based on my assumptions, the rest would look like this:
Georgia (12-1, 8-0)
Ohio State (10-2, 8-2)
Oregon (10-3, 8-2)
Missouri (9-3, 5-3)
Penn State (9-3, 6-3)
Ole Miss (9-3, 5-3)
Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3)
LSU (8-4, 5-3)
Louisville (10-3, 7-1)
Notre Dame (9-3)
Iowa (9-4, 6-3)
There are 5 slots to fill from these 11 teams. Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon look like locks, but who are the other 2? Louisville has no more losses than anyone else, and two fewer conference losses. Would they have made it? Would Notre Dame, with a comparable record but being independent? Or if not, which SEC team and which B1G team would have made it out of the rest? I think maybe Missouri and Louisville, which would make 4 teams each for the B1G and SEC, 2 for the ACC, one for the B12 and 1 from CUSA.
What do you think? I know, there are a lot of variables and assumptions made here, but I am bored and it looks like we'll be staying in the ACC.
My guess is that we end up with exactly the same distribution this year:
4 SEC
4 B1G
ACC champ
B12 Champ
G5 Champion
Notre Dame or next highest ranked ACC or B12 member
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