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Systems are complex
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Systems are complex


May 15, 2022, 12:59 PM

Many times I have written that in general liberals lack critical thinking skills, which I believe is true (intuition says education/job demographics would bear this out if data existed). But to be a bit more accurate and to the point, they lack system thinking skills. Systems, especially large social systems, are complex and hard to characterize. Keys to figuring out these systems are identifying feedback loops, especially those that "regenerate" effects.

A simple regeneration effect is a system model of a population. Inflows are new births, but new births end up creating additional new births when those people grow up to have kids themselves. Outflows are deaths. Population system models have been heavily studied over time.

Governments and large organizations are infamous for trying to push a complex system one way by changing rules, adding a feedback loop, etc. but the end result has on many occasions been opposite that intended.

Thus, I offer yet again the system conclusion that past and current welfare efforts have the opposite effect intended if the intent is for a temporary hand up towards self-reliance. There is no part of the welfare system that has a goal or objective (feedback loop) for the system to create self-reliance. There are many political reasons the welfare system is inherently flawed – personal gain is a big one. Politicians (esp democrats) link their support of welfare programs to maintaining their job. You see, this feeback loop (support X > get elected) is egregiously wrong and bad for the nation. In addition, the bureaucrats that run the welfare system would lose their jobs if they did their jobs right – that is, if the number of people needing welfare continuously decreased. If they were honest, the bureaucrats that run the welfare system should impose upon themselves a goal that the funding they give out should be decreasing as the number of recipients decrease because they become self-reliant.

Similarly, and connected to the above topic, is this entire white supremacy blame game the left has going. I have said it before, and I will say it again, we are in store for more of what happened in Buffalo. The reason is because the complex social system that is happening today has reinforcing functions and feedback loops that are ufcked up. Bad messaging of any type (incorrect, immoral, sensational, etc.) gets rewarded in our system today. These are positive feedback loops and they are everywhere. Positive in the sense that they reinforce behavior (the behavior itself can be good or bad).

Social media sites love sensational news items because they make money. The news item does not have to be real. This is not a good feedback loop. Where is the natural market balance that would “silence” fake news outlets because people would quit watching, reading, subscribing? This natural balance may exist, but its influence is very small compared to other influences that reward negative information.

Think of a system with a “stock” called white supremacy or possibly white radicalization with inflows, outflow, and many varied complex reinforcing and feedback loops. For example, rhetoric from the POTUS himself referencing 70,000,000 Trump voters MAGA crowd is really the most extreme political organization that's existed in American history is a strong generator of emotion and is an input to the stock of White Radicalization. Even if Biden believes what he is saying, if the has the best interest of the country in mind, he would not say it because it feeds the system to create these far right wingers. Similarly, the rhetoric in social media are positive input generators to the White Radicalization – the more social media spins, the more input there is. As the stock of White Radicals grows a certain percent will do what the Buffalo shooter did. This is not a theory, it is a fact – it will happen. When and how are the variables, and we will not always detect all actions from White Radicals.

So, we should ask ourselves, are Biden and the left doing these types of things (blaming millions of law abiding, hardworking Americans for the plight of the blacks or for being the biggest danger to democracy) on purpose? Are they intentionally creating the behavior (violence from white radicals) they want to exist as an attempt to better themselves?

https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Systems-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/1603580557


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I don’t think Donella Meadows would agree with the


May 15, 2022, 4:51 PM

framework of this argument. To catalyze an argument with a nebulously defined “left”, positing it is they who can’t think systemically, merely due to their political affiliation, is categorically weak. She would laugh at the thought of applying her methods to the blame game internet Twitter beeching that goes on.

If you really want to address feedback loops that result in negative actions, start with ending the internet blame game. If you are liberal, it is not all conservatives fault. If you’re conservative, it is not all liberals fault. Quit promoting it. Quit associating with radical left/right ideologies. If we can’t regain this collective ideological composure and respect , our democracy will end.

I’m encouraged by the way my 18 yr old and his friends move about and interact. They seem to place more value on their common interests while respecting their differences. They don’t use social media as a weapon and will be openly critical of those who do. Maybe the next generation’s wiser use of social media/internet/information can undo the damage us old farts, ideologues, and zealots have done.

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Re: I don’t think Donella Meadows would agree with the


May 15, 2022, 7:14 PM

You completely missed the point. I should not have opened by putting you on the defensive in a mostly unrelated remark. I'll strike that part from the record, but...

You said "To catalyze an argument with a nebulously defined “left”, positing it is they who can’t think systemically, merely due to their political affiliation, is categorically weak."

Note also I said "in general" (means not all) and did not suggest liberals/leftists can't think in systems (different than "systematically") because they are part of the left. I suggested the demographics of less technical education and more emotionally-intensive jobs would be consistent with less interest/aptitude for technical explanations of what is happening. More engineers are conservative compared to art, English, or psych majors (i.e., Liberal Arts majors). I know plenty of technical PhD liberals, so this clearly is not absolute, but I believe it is a trend on which most people will agree. In addition, I believe this flows over to blue collar work as well. Plumbers, mechanics, etc. "know how stuff works" and are very good at system thinking (even though they may not ever call it that).

---enough of that and now to the fun stuff

Obviously we agree systems know nothing about left/right. The system "cares about" stocks, inflow, outflow and feedback loops.

With respect to the welfare population that has been with us for generations, the system has not worked nor will it EVER work, period. The system I see looks like this:

https://bit.ly/3Ne2Zkq


Yours may look different, but if it is missing the aggressive feedback loop from those receiving benefits to those providing benefits then it is a faulty model.

If we cannot turn the welfare spigot off with less than 4% employment, that reinforces the conclusion that welfare will never work. The democrats and left are using race in an attempt to gain office and power. They have done it very successfully over the years to the detriment of the black community.

Very similar arguments to the rising stock of White Supremacy. The democrats understand they can push a small input into the system and notice the effects, some within their echo chamber and some outside of it. A small input can have a large effect. Not everyone in the administration is stupid - there are some people who know what they are doing and are driving this messaging and these no-win strategies into the populations.

Let's be clear...Obama and Biden both have blatantly stated (as have the democrat party) that they intend to FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORM the USA. Sorry, but I believe I (and conservatives) have the high ground on this argument and will never trust the left nor want them in power. This is not a 50/50 thing where we can agree on halfway fundamentally transforming the USA...I will never agree.

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You don’t need to explain “in general” to me,


May 15, 2022, 11:05 PM

you wrote what you wrote, your intention clear. I’m more interested in why you, or anyone, for that matter believes the metastatic trope that it’s the other sides fault. This is a democracy, we need both sides.

System analysis aside, why does welfare or social safety net programs bother you?They usually run a third of Medicare/Medicaid/kids health programs and around half of defense spending annually. Defense is defense, you really don’t want to skimp on that, but by God could you cut the fat. Healthcare spending though is 20% of the GDP and has tripled in the last 20 years. That’s a point of contention that everybody from Ted Cruz, AOC, crazy Bernie, to Tom Cotton should want to address. But it seems they are too interested in twidderbiching and heehawing at each other to do anything about it

If we did want to end the welfare state I’d argue it should’ve happened about 40 yrs ago when the manufacturing economy was stronger and wealth inequality was within a manageable standard deviation.

I get where you are coming from, you’ve worked hard, accumulated wealth, and managed it. No one wants to take that from you no matter what the shows and internet weirdos say. What if you could still maintain and grow that wealth and the government could help those in need? Not scammers, not thieves, but Americans that need help. Would you do it? What if you didn’t feel compelled to gripe about libs/lefties/dems/dumbocrats? Would that make things better?

Gotta run, finish the thought later.

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Re: You don’t need to explain “in general” to me,


May 16, 2022, 11:39 AM

It seems to me the "other side" is clear. Maybe if I heard Obama, Biden and the Democrats explain what they mean by "fundamental transformation" it would be less threatening. But, without a clear explanation I have to take what I see and hear the Democrats and the masses saying/doing (not fringe elements) to explain it. For example, if I take the good parts of the USA, the reasons half the world wants to come here - freedom, free markets, pursuit of happiness, etc. - I see that as being taken away by the "transformation." And, worse, it appears the transformation is heading to a place where many do not want to be - where normalcy is defined as bad and normal people are bad because they are normal and traditional. Normal defined statistically, that is.

The right has not decided the left is a group people that need to be changed, but the left has decided that about the right and conservatives, and they are taking action on it. I mean, really, we have the POTUS standing up telling 70M voters and probably another 75 or 100 million people that they are the most radical in the history of the US. This is the kind of division that cuts deep. HRC said essentially the same (deplorables).

With respect to social programs, I am fine with them in principle, but they need to be designed as a way out not a way of life. There are two major issues I have with current programs: 1) the system is defined and implemented in an illogical way that does not use an inherent goal of getting people self-reliant, and 2) the system is used for political gain by the democrats.
Even though my work is in and around the DoD, I agree there is a lot of fat that can be trimmed there as is true everywhere a bureaucracy is involved. There is ‘legal corruption’ going on between the defense industrial base and the government as there has been for decades. The federal procurement system has grown so big and onerous I would guess everything except the most basic purchases costs 50% (or more) more than it should.

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Re: You don’t need to explain “in general” to me,


May 16, 2022, 12:03 PM

Also, forgot to say a good number of well known system models of countries and the world do not end well. Capitalism models, at least the ones I have seen, end up bifurcated (rich and poor). In terms of world models, it sort of all goes back to the idea that we are all human and are inherently flawed - these flaws eventually do us in...

No easy solution. No silver bullet. This probably supports your "needs both sides" idea, and I agree that many opinions, ideas, and solutions have to be considered.

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Libs (commies) don't believe in systems or cause and effect.


May 15, 2022, 5:01 PM

They are post-modernist, so they believe reality is whatever they feel it is, and it can change at any time, no matter what any past precedent or evidence says. They don't understand systems because they simply don't see the world as a place where actions have reactions.

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Re: Systems are complex


May 17, 2022, 10:18 AM

First of all, this is a tremendous and thought provoking post.

Second, the debate between you and OldSlacTiger is instructive in a subtle way. (Both of you had the "input" of thought-out points of view / perspectives.)

For generalization / brevity sake, I'll use "righty / righties" and "lefty / lefties" as a shortcut.

So here goes about the subtle differences between your posts:

Critical thinking in a general sense: Righties and Lefties both possess this. No problem here.

Critical thinking in a problem-solving sense (generalization): Righties who have (1) not been educated in this or (2) who have not been required to utilize or develop problem solving skills to be successful in their jobs are no different from the Lefties.

Critical thinking in a problem-solving sense (sub-sets): Righties who have (1) been educated in this and/or (2) must utilize the problem solving 'algorithm' to succeed in their jobs are far more likely to understand and know the approach for solving complex problems. Lefty education and job success is less dependent up the critical skills to actually solve complex problems. Lefties can identify the complex problems, but they (typically) lack the educational and life-experiences ability to solve complex problems.

EXAMPLE in this post:

Poster "A" has identified a singular societal problem and identified the specific motivations and feedback loop factors which are fundamental to the problem. In other words, the technical means for starting to fix the problem.

Poster "B" has spoke to the historical generalization about why several society problems had come about, but is focused on the emotional approach 'blame is to be spread around,' historical facts which make the problem hard to solve, and jumping around to various problems instead.

(*) Technically trained people take a complex problem, break that problem down into components, endeavor to solve each component's problem in a singular sense, and then proceed to the next problem. The conclusion process for solving the complex problem is to integrate the solutions of the various components to create the solution to the overall problem.

(*) The methodical 'problem solving' approach by the Righties who are educated in this and practice this in their lives are simply better equipped to solve complex problems than those who are not 'trained' in this process.

(*) This is not to suggest that Lefties are useless or do not have a place in society. The 'personal touch / sensitivity' in which Lefties are more effective is becoming far more important in the corporate world; this 'personal touch / sensitivity' is being embraced by the 'evil corporations' to help them improve the corporations' attraction and retention of employees. This is a BFD.

SUMMARY: There is great value to society from both the "problem solver Righties" and the "personal touch Lefties." But America has an enormous number of complex problems that are just getting worse, and the shortage of 'problem solver' approaches to public policy needs to be addressed quickly.

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Re: Systems are complex


May 17, 2022, 11:05 AM

This is a really good thread because it's bereft of the usual psychotic overtones I see in here.

Where I'm coming from, personally, is I sit almost dead-center between the liberal and conservative camps. I'm more liberal socially...and a lot more conservative fiscally.

I agree with most of NC_Tiger's post...the difference is that I fundamentally disagree with him that the problem is created solely by the left. NC seems blind to his own prejudices and, sorry, he's got a superiority complex and very little self-awareness. He's definitely got an engineer's brain.

I do agree with him that libs frequently seem to be bit by the "law of unintended consequences." Which translates as: the road to he!! is often paved with good intentions. Libs probably didn't mean to create the problem of urban blight with rent control, but that's exactly what happens. Landlords have no incentives to improve their properties. Similarly welfare creates that perpetual dependency cycle..."give a man a fish", versus "teach a man to fish", and all that.

Still, technical guys - and I know this well, my dad was an automation engineer who had degrees in mechanical and electrical engineering, plus a bunch of certificates including PLC's and Professional Engineering and programming - tend to be all head and no heart. Being smart doesn't make you a good human being (though it can make you useful.) Werner von Braun was a Nazi and a former member of the SS. I've noticed a lot of engineers tend to be extremist right in their thinking, since they're smart, not at all egalitarian, and generally lack empathy. Sorry, NC, you do. My dad is arch MAGA too...and pretty much a straight d!ck with zero social skills.

Contrariwise, liberals tend to be all heart and no head, and they tend towards virtue signaling, groupthink, and when taken to extremes - and there is definitely a very extreme leftist element present in our universities, in Hollywood, and on the West Coast and in the big cities - they definitely seem to show this blind hostility towards capitalism or any kind of material success, masculinity, religion, and certainly towards the rural working class and actual salt-of-the-Earth nuclear family types. Bernie Bros are as hostile, aggressive, and irrational as MAGA's. You just don't see me blowing them up on here because there aren't many of those on football boards. That's Inappropriate Alpha Male Aggression, to them. The arguments going on here are largely between the right and the center...and of course, there's a whole bunch of true right-leaning morons who constantly confuse centrists with liberals because they're just...that...dumb. (Not mentioning any names here.)

In older parlance, it's the difference between "left-brained" (which actually is more right-leaning in political orientation) and "right-brained", or creative thinking...which tends to be a more leftist trait.

The trick, as ever, is balance. Too much head and no heart and you're herding Jews and anyone perceived as subhuman into gas chambers because they're in your way and you want their living space. Too much heart and no head and you've got Thought Police that run around arresting anyone who mentions "but how do you pay for that?" or even simply "I wanna be rich and do well"...or increasingly even "hey, you're purty and I'd love to buy you dinner and bang you and maybe not in that order." (Horrors...toxic masculinity!)

The reason we're seeing so much extremism right now, IMHO, is really simple: we struck down the equal-time laws in the '80's, went to a ton of cable-based news-for-profit that tailor their messages to the prejudices of their audiences - left as well as right - and then added a boatload of utterly unregulated niche platforms that, thanks to our social-media algorithms, can surround each individual user with tailored little bubble universes of information of their own confirmation bias.

Dangerous, dangerous, dangerous.

NC just thinks it's a leftist problem. I think it's an everybody problem who doesn't recognize that The Machine wants us all and the only way to beat it is to unplug it. I have no social media whatsoever and haven't for years. (Interestingly, even the Big Tech execs have largely unplugged their own services for themselves and their families because they know how pernicious it is...in a very real sense, they've become Big Tobacco and they know how bad their product is for people. But it makes so very much money for them....)

Just my .02. But this is an awesome discussion and we have far too few of those here.

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Re: Systems are complex


May 22, 2022, 10:26 AM

Good points. If others are like me, posts come across a bit more extreme than real opinions.

If you have lived long enough and worked in enough teams you figure out by experiment that balance is important - we agree there. Good leaders seek alternate opinions and encourage "quiet" people to express opinions so they are not dominated by the dog with the loudest bark.

There are always two sides to every story/opinion and even though someone is convinced they are right there usually exist other perspectives that will call the original idea into question.

The very large majority of people on all sides are good and have good intentions. Big problems come into play with group think and people perceiving that "everyone" else believes this or that so I should believe that too.

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Re: Systems are complex


May 22, 2022, 6:42 PM

This will read like it's coming from a 'problem-solver-disabled' poster ... but I've been called worse. Here goes.

Those with the biggest communications platforms + loudest voices (or loudest keyboards) are not interested in constructive dialogue. It is to their career objectives (whether political / public sector / private sector) to communicate in specious sound-bites, as these 'pithy' type messages are readily remembered. This is one component of the indoctrination process.

Repetition of falsehoods or unproven theories become 'fact' if they are repeated with frequency and longevity by those who populate the 'big communication platforms.'

The hoax is successful when the 'regular folks' then repeat those 'facts' ... and the indoctrination becomes the feedback loop (as you Mr. NC_Tiger_ had articulated in the OP).

The success of a particular indoctrination process is proportional to the (1) numbers of different communication platforms that repeat the same message; (2) the 'appeal' of the message in the first place; (3) the 'ability' of the indoctrinees [is that a word?] to recite the message to their friends.

(1), (2), and (3) are not always synchronous, and that is how a very powerful "(2)" can counterbalance an opposition group's advantage in the (1) category.

Regardless of the 'source' &/or 'motives' of the purveyor of the 'indoctrination' message, the USA is in one heck of a mess.

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