Who's still alive for the playoffs? It's a short list.

Nov 9, 2015, 1:59 AM

If you break it down, there are 15 - and just 15 - legit contenders remaining for the four coveted playoff spots.

There are just 5 unbeatens left in the "Power 5" conferences, and four of them will play one another, meaning there will be no more than 3 teams unbeaten however this shakes out.

Another 5 teams have 1 loss but are still very much alive and remain either in control of their own destinies, or very close.

Another 5 have 1 loss...and are all but gone, and will need minor miracles to get in.

So here we go: 4 weeks left. Fifteen contenders remain. Start marking 'em off as they fall...and fall they will, like dominoes, over the last month, since unlike Clemson very few of these folks have gotten their tough games out of the way yet.

The rankings denote their CFP ranking spot, per the committee.

ALSO, if you think this post is too long, don't sweat it. It'll get shorter each and every week.

UNBEATENS (5):
1. Clemson (9-0)
We basically have Easy Street until the ACC Championship Game. We've done our work; that's why we're #1 while the Big 12 is still playing preseason scrimmages.

3. Ohio State (9-0)
Yes...yet another unimpressive win over another nobody with a losing record for the defending champs. Still have to play Michigan, Michigan State, and then probably Iowa to return to the playoffs...and guess what, Buckeyes, you won't if you keep playing like this. Are still favored in all three matchups, and will probably still make it in, but it's hard to imagine the Fighting Urbans going all the way this year the way they've looked most of the year. Teams that tiptoe too close to the ledge almost invariably fall off at some point...and they are really close.

6. Baylor (8-0)
Weak schedule and a weaker win over 3-5 K-State will not do much to elevate them in The Committee's eyes. They still have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Texas left. Run that gauntlet and we'll talk, until then, I say: meh. It was hard to not notice how easily K-State ran the ball on these guys this past Friday.

9. Iowa (9-0)
Yes, there is a team in Iowa. (Actually two, I have heard.) They are called the Hawkeyes. And yes, they are unbeaten. They haven't played anybody, mind, but again, they are undefeated. Their odds of staying that way: about 1% or less, per the math, but hey, I guess you're saying there's a chance...and hey, there are no ranked opponents on their schedule until they hit the B1G Title Game, most likely against Ohio State. (They play in the other B1G division, the one no football fan in America could name the teams of if their own lives depended upon it.) They did beat Pitt by a field goal - at home - and they did win a 10-6 scorcher against Wisconsin, and I guess in somebody's universe that makes you a playoff contender.

14. Oklahoma State (9-0)
After playing the 116th-ranked schedule in the country, the Cowboys finally played somebody with a pulse (we think): TCU. They crushed the Horny Frogs 49-29, which probably means The Committee could knee-jerk them into the Top-4. Still on tap, though: Baylor, Texas, and their dearest buddies at Oklahoma, the 8-1 Sooners. Worth keeping an eye on, though I remain unsold on their defense, to put it mildly. S&P+ also remains dubious, rating the Cowboys just #16 overall even after their frog roast.

ONE LOSS AND STILL VERY MUCH ALIVE: (5)
4. Alabama (8-1)
With their beatdown of LSU and Ole Miss's miracle heave-ho overtime loss to Arkansas, Alabama is back firmly in the Top-4 and controls their own destiny. They still have Mississippi State, Auburn, and a Florida team that just won the SEC East by beating Vanderbilt 9-7 in a "gutsy" performance (at home) on tap, so unless a miracle happens, smart money would have the Tide back in the playoffs.

5. Notre Dame (8-1)
The Irish can run, pass, and play defense. They are huge on the lines. They have beaten everyone they have played fairly convincingly, with the exception of, well, Clemson. They get Stanford in their final regular-season game, which means they could actually sort-of control their own destiny, since a win in that game probably cinches a playoff spot for them. Call it 50/50 at the moment, and that prognosis improves with every unbeaten or 1-loss team that falls, though a lack of a title game could bite them if there's a couple others sitting there with similar resumes and a title at the end.

11. Stanford (8-1)
Speaking of teams that control their own destiny, Stanford is probably another. If they win out - which includes beating Notre Dame, plus the Pac-12 title game, their odds are probably better than 50/50 they make the dance.

12. Utah (8-1)
Not quite in the same boat as Stanford, since they don't have Notre Dame on the schedule to add to their resume, but a 1-loss Pac-12 champ would still have a gripe if they got left out. Still have tilts on their schedule against Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado, and the first two are not easy.

15. Oklahoma (8-1)
Have an odd blip against Texas in the Red River Whateveritisnow on their record, but they do have a road win on their resume - against Tennessee - which means that their SOS is a world ahead of most Big 12 teams, who prefer to play scrimmages against high school teams the first month of the season. They also have Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State on their schedule...run that, and sorry, Oklahoma is likely in, even with 1 loss.

ONE LOSS AND ON LIFE SUPPORT: (5)
2. LSU (7-1)
Got curb-stomped and then bent over and violated at midfield by Bama, as you would expect from a team that cannot pass, and has a defense coached by Kevin Steele. Leonard Fournette could well be the finest RB in the country, but he is not on the finest team the country, and it will require a lot of help from others (including the team that just violated them, Bama), to get back into the conversation, along with a lot of short memories on the part of The Committee. Still have losable tilts against Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, which will offer them plenty of chances to show once again that they are not just not a playoff team, but are also not really even a Top-10 team this year, but rather a just-OK team with the scariest college running back since Herschel Walker. They do not control their destiny, either, since Alabama now owns the tie-breaker in the SEC West.

7. Michigan State (8-1)
Their bubble probably burst once and for all against Nebraska this weekend...Spartie just wasn't that good this year and are probably more Top-25 than Top-4. Could still back in with wins over Ohio State and then Iowa in the title game and some help from teams above but we're talking slim odds for Spartie.

8. TCU (8-1)
Are likely well and truly fried after a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Okie State...it'll be a tall task convincing The Committee that the Horny Frogs are Worthy Playoff Material in the three games they have left, which do include Baylor and Oklahoma.

10. Florida (8-1)
Yes, the Gators won the SEC East, in a spectacular, gritty, home stand in which they scored zero touchdowns and won with a last-minute field goal...against Vanderbilt. It's hard to imagine that FSU doesn't mow them down in a couple weaks...if the Gamecocks don't pick them off first, now that Florida's playing so well and all...and then they will almost certainly draw Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. I suppose technically the Gators still have a shot at the dance...though anybody who thinks the Gators will be winning a national title this year probably needs a new eye doctor.

UNRANKED. North Carolina (8-1)
Started with that inexplicable loss to the Gamecocks, but they've gotten steadily better since and could well shoot up the rankings the last month of the season. Still have Miami, VT, and NC State on tap...there are no presently-ranked teams on their win ledger, but they will almost certainly get a crack at Clemson in the ACC title game. Long odds to make the playoffs, but if they win emphatically enough the last month of the season, it could happen if enough teams lose ahead of them. It'll take a minor miracle...but one thing that could help the Heels is the so-called "Eye Test". The Committee forgave Ohio State an early season yip (at home, no less!) to VT last year...would the Heels not deserve the same consideration if they go all rampage their final four games? Stranger stuff has happened, and UNC does actually look like they may have legit game, right now.

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Good run down. I'd like to add that the Big XII may very well have screwed themselves by gaming their league schedules to wait until November to have all their "power team" games. The Big XII must believe that by saving the big match-ups for the end of the season it will compensate for the lack of a Big XII championship game. I think otherwise and the very real case of not having a clear playoff contender from the Big XII will likely emerge.

For example, if Baylor loses to Oklahoma or TCU, Oklahoma State loses to Baylor or Oklahoma, and Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State or TCU the Big XII will be left out of the CFP again this year. I think the odds are really high that none of these Big XII teams go undefeated the rest of the season as we witness a case of internal conference cannibalism. Late season losses will crush these guys in the CFP committee rankings and the Big XII will be left out again.

If the Big XII gets left out of the CFP again this year it will be interesting to see if they do a mad scramble to add two teams from a lessor conference (maybe Houston and Tulsa) in order to split their league into two divisions and have a championship game.

Who's still alive for the playoffs? It's a short list.

Great write up! Thanks***

Re: Who's still alive for the playoffs? It's a short list.

Once again, thanks for your great efforts. The '81 UNC

Re: Once again, thanks for your great efforts. The '81 UNC

Looks like you're working on a master's degree in sports journalism.

Re: Looks like you're working on a master's degree in sports journalism.

Very thorough. Disagree re: #1

Re: Very thorough. Disagree re: #1

Re: Very thorough. Disagree re: #1

Re: Very thorough. Disagree re: #1

Re: Who's still alive for the playoffs? It's a short list.

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